South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 22nd July)

Best Days: Sun: building S'ly swell across Northern NSW (remaining tiny in SE Qld). Mon/Tues: strong S'ly swell in Northern NSW, only small in SE Qld but exposed northern ends should be fun. Good winds in most regions. Wed: easing S'ly swell in Northern NSW (very small in SE Qld) with good winds. 

Recap: Wave heights have remained tiny throughout SE Qld over the last few days. A small S’ly swell pushed up the Northern NSW coast late Thursday, holding into Friday morning with 2-3ft sets at south facing beaches. Winds have picked up from the north favouring protected northern corners. 

Fresh S'ly swell at Coffs Harbour this morning

This weekend (Saturday 23rd July - Sunday 24th July)

Tiny conditions are expected across all coasts on Saturday. 

Our current south swell will continue to fade, and winds will freshen from the north-west as a front approaches the region. We may see a small low quality northerly windswell across north-facing beaches of the Gold and Tweed Coasts but it’s not worth getting too excited about.

During Saturday morning, a broad, multi-centered low pressure system will develop across the entire Tasman Sea basin, however it looks like our south swell window won’t become active until very late in the day. This means we won’t see the resulting new southerly swell push up the Northern NSW coast until sometime Sunday - probably early to mid morning on the Mid North Coast, then early to mid afternoon across the Far North Coast. 

As such we’re looking at an afternoon peak in size across all regions, in fact there are several stronger pulses behind this that will result in the biggest waves being seen on Monday. Surf size should reach 3-5ft at south facing beaches south of Byron Bay (smaller early morning, especially in the Far North) and expect smaller surf at beaches not completely open to the south (~2-3ft or so). Southern corners will be tiny.

SE Qld really won’t do very well from this swell - not only will it be a very late arrival north of the border, but the direction will only favour a couple of super exposed south swell magnets that may see glancing energy late in the day. 

Expect most Gold and Sunshine Coast beaches to remain tiny all day, with a mid-late afternoon pulse to maybe 0.5-1ft. The outer points may rake in a few bigger 1.5ft+ sets in the few hours before dark, and super reliable south swell magnets may see late 2-3ft bombs on dark (more chance on the Gold Coast than Sunshine Coast), but I really wouldn’t get your hopes up north of the border.

As for Sunday’s surface conditions - we’re looking at light variable winds and sea breezes, so it’ll be well worth scouting your favourite south facing beach south of the border. 

Next week (Monday 25th July onwards)

The weekend's parent Tasman low is expected to display several strong swell generating fetches, which will generate varying degrees of southerly swell for the first half of next week. 

Strong trailing winds from the first front will maintain plenty of energy through Monday morning, somewhere in the 4-5ft range at south facing beaches south of Byron, ahead of a second, stronger swell for the afternoon (earlier on the Mid North Coast), generated by a secondary front S/SE of Tasmania late Saturday.

This front is modelled to slingshot around the primary low into Sunday, aimed nicely within our swell window. South facing beaches should see a little more size into Monday afternoon with strong 5-6ft sets at south swell magnets south of Byron, and smaller surf elsewhere. This swell should hold steady across the Far North into Tuesday morning, but ease during the day (it’ll probably be on the way down by Tuesday morning across the Mid North Coast). 

No major synoptic pattern is expected both days, so we should see early light winds and sea breezes maintaining clean conditions just about everywhere.

A third fetch associated with an embedded polar low will track SE over the weekend but then remain slow moving off the ice shelf for a day or so, which will set up a smaller but useful S/SE from later Tuesday thru’ Wednesday. This should fill in 4ft sets into Tuesday afternoon at south facing beaches south of Byron Bay, but an easing trend back to around 3ft is expected on Wednesday.

The usual caveats will hold true for other locations during this period - smaller at beaches not open to the south, very small in southern corners etc.

Across SE Qld, this run of southerly swell won’t favour many beaches (1-2ft most Gold and Sunshine Coast beaches, and very slow/inconsistent) however exposed northern ends should pick up some decent size at times, pushing 3-4ft due to the acute southerly swell direction at times on Monday and Tuesday. Expect smaller surf into Wednesday as the energy fades. 

Looking further ahead and another extended period of strong frontal activity is expected from Tuesday onwards. Current model guidance has a predominantly zonal pattern at first (which will cap wave heights across the East Coast, in and around a mid-week pulse of new S'ly energy) followed by a slightly stronger, more meridional (north-south) flow from late Wednesday onwards that could generate a much larger southerly swell for Northern NSW later Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Unfortunately this looks like it'll maintain very small conditions throughout most SE Qld beaches for the foreseeable future.

Anyway, if you like south swells you’ve certainly got an active week or more ahead! Have a great weekend, see you Monday.