South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 18th July)

Best Days: Wed/Thurs/Fri: chance for some fun waves at south swell magnets in Northern NSW with a series of small south swells. Friday is your best chance. Sun: small new south swell in Northern NSW. Mon/Tues: large S'ly swell across Northern NSW.

Recap: Plenty of decent waves about on Saturday with a combination of easing E’ly swell throughout most coasts (~3ft), and solid but also abating S’ly swell in Northern NSW. Some south facing beaches south of the border saw early 4-6ft sets with an easing trend through the day. On Sunday, both swell sources continued to ease but a new short range E/NE swell built across SE Qld and Northern NSW, thanks to a coastal trough off the Capricornia coast. This created 3-4ft waves on the Sunshine Coast and 3ft surf across the Gold and Tweed Coasts. Surf quality was generally bumpy under an onshore airstream but there were brief periods of lighter S’ly winds. Today we’ve seen all swell sources ease in size with generally slack winds across most coasts.

Lots of bods at the Superbank today chasing small leftovers from the weekend

This week (Tuesday July 19th - Friday 22nd July)

The synoptic charts make for pretty grim reading.

A large stationary high in the Northern Tasman Sea is acting as a barrier to Southern Ocean frontal systems, keeping our south swell window quiet for the foreseeable future. One reasonably strong system will nose into the lower Tasman Sea tomorrow but the high pressure ridge will maintain a zonal pattern (west-east) which will ensure poor alignment and a short duration within our swell window.

That being said, core wind speed are pretty strong within this front so the swell periods should be quite impressive, even if they’re only going to glance the coast. Exposed south swell magnets south of Byron Bay should pick up inconsistent sets from this source on Wednesday, somewhere in the 2ft to maybe 2-3ft range. I doubt we’ll see much action elsewhere. 

Northerly winds will freshen throughout the day too so you’ll have to tuck into a northern corner for the best waves. On the whole, not a great day to be scouting the coast for surf. 

Prior to this, Tuesday will see small residual energy from today (i.e. across all coasts) and light variable winds.

Thursday morning will be similar, with Wednesday’s S’ly swell facing rapidly across exposed Northern NSW coasts - the main difference will be a freshening NW breeze as a coastal trough pushed off the central/southern NSW region. No real swell is expected from this fetch; maybe some small northerly wind waves about exposed north-facing beaches on the Gold Coast and Far Northern NSW coast, but hardly worthwhile.

Late Thursday may herald the arrival of a very long period S’ly swell across Northern NSW south swell magnets, originating from a deep low tracking south of Tasmania on Tuesday and early Wednesday. Core wind speeds are likely to be upwards of 50kts, but more importantly, despite the still-unfavourable alignment within our swell window, this fetch will be working on a very active sea state generated by the previous front (responsible for Wednesday’s brief flush of south swell).

And, the models are really not resolving this fetch very well at all - they’re estimating just 0.4m of deepwater swell at 18 seconds across the Mid North Coast overnight Thursday into Friday. I think we’ll see much more size than this, but only at south swell magnets - possibly up to 3-4ft at times but very inconsistent. The Mid North Coast may see the arrival of this swell late Thursday afternoon, but most of the North Coast will see it peak in size through Friday morning. Very little of this swell will reach the coast north of the border.

Local winds on Friday look interesting with freshening NW winds as a strong front rears up from the south-west, so northern corners will be your best. 

Either way, it looks like a grim period for SE Qld but south swell magnets in Northern NSW have plenty of potential on Wednesday (maybe Thursday) and especially Friday with these new south swells. Proceed cautiously, but optimistically south of Byron Bay.

This weekend (Saturday 23rd July - Sunday 24th July)

A vigorous front is expected to cross the Tasmanian region on Friday. Ordinarily, this would herald the development of a fresh south swell a day or two later, but unfortunately the early stages of this pattern once again look too zonal to be of any benefit to us. 

A second front crossing the same region on Saturday looks a little better in alignment, but only marginally so. This should kick up slightly better swell prospects for Northern NSW on Sunday.

As such, Saturday is looking tiny across SE Qld, and knife-edge rideable in Northern NSW - Friday’s south swell will probably be on the way out (maybe some inconsistent 2ft+ sets at south swell magnets early morning), however we may see a minor pulse of south swell at these same locations during the day, from the first southern Tasman front. Winds will be NW so don’t expect much away from exposed northern corners. 

Sunday has more promise with the second south swell expected to push up the coast however there’s a mild risk of S/SW winds developing as the associated front drives a weak ridge across the coast. 

At this stage, 3ft+ sets are possible at south swell magnets in Northern NSW, but I’ll have a better idea on this on Wednesday. Either way it's not a good weekend for SE Qld surfers. 

Next week (Monday 25th July onwards)

The parent low to the weekend’s fronts looks like a beast on the current synoptics.

S/SE of Tasmania, it looks like it’ll stall for a day or two, extending a broad gale to storm force fetch through our far southern swell window. The core of the low could see 50-60kts of wind though it’s not yet clear where this will be aimed.

Therefore we’re looking at plenty of surf across the Northern NSW coast, building Monday and holding into Tuesday - early indications are for 6ft+ sets at south swell magnets at least, possibly more - though we’ll need to refine this as the model data tweaks itself over the coming days.