South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 13th July)

Best Days: Thurs/Fri/Sat: fun outer points in SE Qld, and good waves at protected spots/points in Northern NSW with a building S'ly and persistent E'ly swell. 

Recap: Tuesday ended up displaying larger surf than expected in Monday’s notes. I’m on the road this week and haven’t had a chance to analyse whether it was leftover E/SE swell from Monday or the leading edge of new E’ly swell due today, however we saw occasional 2-3ft sets across most open beaches including SE Qld. Unfortunately winds remained N/NW at many locations (as expected) so only protected northern corners offered clean conditions. Today we’ve seen a minor increase in size with more consistency in the 3ft range and winds have been mainly westerly, favouring the beach breaks. Set waves are however inconsistent, owing to the distant swell source.  

Fun waves at Snapper around lunchtime today

This week (Thursday July 14th - Friday July 15th)

No changes to the forecast for the rest of the week (and as I’m on the road I’ll keep it brief today). 

The low to the N/NE of New Zealand is still active out in our far east swell window though is finishing up swell production for us as it rotates clockwise out of our swell window. However we’re some two to three days travel time away from the primary fetch, so swell from the initial fetch activated Sunday/Monday is arriving now and the work done over the last few days will impact our coast through Thursday and Friday. 

This should produce lully periods of E’ly swell across open beaches around 3-4ft at times, though the swell trend won’t be linear (i.e. up, plateau, then down) so expect some periods of smaller surf near 2-3ft. And it’l be very inconsistent too, with smaller surf running down the points. 

Due to the alignment of the fetch, we’ll probably see the upper end of this size range north of Byron (especially on the Sunshine Coast) with smaller waves to the south, due to the shadowing afforded by New Zealand;s North Island (relative to the Mid North Coast).

Also in the water over the coming two days is a strong series of southerly swells for Northern NSW. This will mainly influence south facing beaches south of Byron, due to the acute southerly direction - building to 4-6ft throughout Thursday and then holding at the upper end of this size range into Friday. 

Beaches not open to the south will be much smaller and I don’t think we’ll see much more than an inconsistent foot or two in SE Qld, away from the swell magnets. The east swell will be more dominant here. 

A secondary, stronger pulse is due into the Lower Mid North Coast late Friday but it probably won’t arrive across most regions until overnight (this may kick up wave heights by another foot or two).

The main factor for surfing conditions over the next two days will be local winds, as a strong high ridges along the coast. This will swing early SW winds around to the S/SE in Northern NSW on Thursday, tending S’ly or even S/SE in SE Qld. A similar pattern is expected on Friday.

This weekend (Saturday July 16th - Sunday July 17th)

Friday’s late pulse of larger S’ly swell looks like it’ll peak across most Northern NSW locations overnight, before trending downwards throughout the days. As such, we should see early 6ft+ sets at south facing beaches south of Byron at dawn, but it’ll become smaller from mid-morning onwards and further into Sunday (down to 3-4ft at south facing beaches). 

Again, locations not open to the south will be smaller in size (and beaches north of Byron). And not much of this south swell will make its way into SE Qld, away from the south swell magnets. 

Our late week E’ly groundswell will also be easing throughout the weekend. Inconsistent 2-3ft+ sets are possible across SE Qld  and Far Northern NSW early morning (upper end of this size range across there Sunny Coast) but it’ll ease into the day and further during Sunday.

The models are maintaining that unseasonal tropical system in the Northern Coral Sea (which is a little unusual), and also spinning off some short range E’ly swell that’s forecast to build into Sunday - with sets around 3ft. I’m still pretty skeptical that this will develop, and that the associated local winds will pan out as modelled (moderate to fresh SE Sat, tending E/SE Sun) but we need another day or two to firm things up.

Local winds south of the border are likely to be a lighter version of what happens up north. So again, I’m going to hold my thoughts on this for now to see how the model data trends tomorrow (I’ll update in the comments below). 

Next week (Monday July 18th onwards)

Looks like another strong southerly change through the Lower Tasman Sea on Monday/Tuesday, which will generate a strong southerly swell from late Tuesday through Wednesday and Thursday, mainly focused across Northern NSW. More on this in Friday’s notes.