South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 11th July)

Best Days: Wed: good beachies across most coasts with a building E'ly swell. Thurs/Fri/Sat: fun outer points in SE Qld, and good waves at protected spots/points in Northern NSW with a building S'ly and persistent E'ly swell. 

Recap: The weekend generally panned out as expected, with a strong combo of S/SE swells on Saturday and early being reinforced late Sunday by a stronger E/SE swell. Wave heights held around 4-5ft across Northern NSW for much of the weekend ahead of the kick, with smaller waves north of Byron. Across SE Qld, Saturday was initially very small due to the southerly swell direction (though south facing beaches picked up occasional 2-3ft sets) with Sunday offering a little more size as the swell direction swung more SE. Sunday’s late kick in E/SE swell persisted into the early hours of this morning though has been easing in size all day. Early 3ft sets across SE Qld are now smaller, with 4-5ft+ sets in Northern NSW now also easing. Early light offshore winds are now freshening from the north. 

This week (Tuesday July 12th - Friday July 15th)

We’ve got plenty of surf due throughout the forecast period. However, Tuesday will see a low point between swells as the current E/SE energy continues to fade. 

Conditions should be clean across the beach breaks though under freshening NW winds, possibly tending N/NW at times so you’ll have to aim for a northern corner for the best waves. There won’t be much more than a couple of feet of leftover surf across exposed beaches in Northern NSW with smaller surf in SE Qld - so unless you’re absolutely desperate I’d probably give it a miss.

The low pressure system responsible for our weekend’s waves moved just north of New Zealand on Sunday, and is now pushing into a productive swell generating phase (for Australia’s East Coast) as it tracks north of the swell shadow afforded by the North Island. 

Its alignment isn’t perfect however the models have actually reduced the clockwise traits suggested on Friday, which means we’ll probably see a slightly longer duration of long range E’ly swell from this source. The biggest waves will be found at northern most locations (such as the Sunshine Coast), and surf size will fall away as you head south of about Ballina - with possibly a more noticeable drop off in size south of some point along the Mid North Coast (due to the position of the fetch relative to NZ’s North Island). 

The first pulse of new swell is due to arrive late Tuesday - probably too late to be of any use to us - with Wednesday morning looking at the start of an upwards trend that’ll peak into the late afternoon, and then ebb and flow through Thursday and Friday. At this stage wave heights should peak around 3-4ft at most open beaches across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW (smaller to the south) but this isn’t expected to be a linear event so we’ll see periods of smaller 2-3ft surf at times. Expect smaller waves running down the SE Qld points too and across the Mid North Coast. And, it’ll be quite inconsistent at times too owing to the distant swell source. 

Therefore, with a couple of days of east swell on the cards you’ll have to work around the local winds. Freshening W’ly winds are expected on Wednesday with the building E’ly swell, but they’ll veer SW then S/SW across Northern NSW both Thursday and Friday as a ridge builds along the coast, behind a a vigorous series of fronts expected to pass through the southern Tasman Sea from Wednesday onwards. Winds may also tend more S/SE across SE Qld into the afternoons though this will be quite workable for the outer points. 

The latest model guidance has aligned the Tasman fronts in a slightly more zonal pattern (west-east) than indicated on Friday, which has slightly reduced its swell potential across Northern NSW (and a lot across SE Qld, though this doesn’t matter with the good east swell forecast). That being said, we are still looking at strong southerly swell for south facing beaches in Northern NSW; building through Thursday to 4-6ft and pushing 6ft+ at times on Friday, and maybe early Saturday. Beaches not open to the south will see a smaller (but still strong) combo of east and south swells. Protected locations and points will be the obvious pick under the southerly regime.

So, the upshot for this week is a (general) lay day on Tuesday, followed by some fun clean beaches on Wednesday then a strong combo of south and east swells for Thursday and Friday favouring the points and protected spots in Northern NSW, as well as the SE Qld outer points. 

This weekend (Saturday July 16th - Sunday July 17th)

The broader frontal progression looks like it’ll remain active through the weekend, though in a less favourable zonal pattern. This suggests easing S’ly swells all weekend, starting off with a pretty solid size range at first, probably somewhere near 5-6ft+ at south facing beaches south of Byron.

The mid-late week E’ly swell will have also reached a peak by Friday so we’re looking at a concurrent easing trend from this source too. SE Qld beaches should still see early 2-3ft+ sets on Saturday morning, becoming smaller during the day and into Sunday.

The only fly in the ointment at this stage is a modelled ridge across the entire region, thanks to a continental high pressure belt and an unseasonable tropical system in the Coral Sea.

I don’t have much faith in this guidance at the present time so I wouldn’t be too concerned about local conditions just yet - at worst there’ll be fun waves at the SE Qld outer points anyway, and winds will be lighter south of Byron so the protected locations and points should also be offering reasonable conditions. But I have a gut feeling that the wind outlook will improve over the coming days. 

And fortunately, local winds won’t be related to the weekend’s swell sources so the surf outlook shouldn’t change too much either. 

Next week (Monday July 18th onwards)

Looks like a break in this active synoptic pattern for next week with steadily easing size throughout the first half of next week and no major swell sources on the long term radar at this stage.