South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 17th June)

Best Days: Sat: early light winds and a fun combo of swells at open beaches, best suited to northern corners. Mon: get in early for a clean, peaky but easing NE tending E/NE swell. Tues/Wed: possibly some fun clean south swell at swell magnets south of Byron.

Recap: Strong but slowly easing trade swell with 3-5ft sets on Thursday across the Gold/Tweed coasts (slightly bigger on the Sunshine Coast, smaller south from Byron), down a foot or so today. A new southerly groundswell built across south facing beaches in Northern NSW today, though wave heights were at the bottom end of the forecast spectrum (very inconsistent 4ft sets). Winds have been mainly light and variable on Thursday, with a northerly trend kicking in today, only light in the north but moderate to fresh across the Mid North Coast. 

This weekend (Saturday 18th - Sunday 19th)

Saturday is still a much better choice than Sunday, for all coasts.

We’ve got a developing coastal trough for Sunday that’s going to generate NE tending N/NE gales, and this will write off just about everywhere for the second half of the weekend. Sure, we’re going to see a sizeable short range swell build across the coast by late in the day but there won’t be many options to hide out of the wind. 

However, prior to this we should see better conditions on Saturday. There’s still a risk of northerly winds developing - mainly across Northern NSW later in the morning, and most regions throughout the afternoon - but locations in the Far North and also across SE Qld should see a period of light variable winds before lunch. Across Northern NSW we should see N/NW winds, maybe even NW at times in the morning, and this should provide workable conditions across south facing beaches. 

Wave heights are expected to ease a little more from today, with the current E’ly swell holding 3ft surf across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, down to 2ft+ across the Mid North Coast.

Today’s southerly swell is expected to peak overnight and will also ease throughout the day. Surf size will biggest at south facing beaches between Byron and Coffs, with very inconsistent sets around 3-4ft, before easing to 2ft+ by the afternoon. Expect smaller surf south and north of this region (and very little south swell across SE Qld beaches). 

Sunday’s building NE windswell will become quite large by late in the day, with the biggest waves across the Mid North Coast - maybe some 4-6ft sets late afternoon, though heavily wind affected. Expect smaller surf across Far Northern NSW and SE Qld, but equally wet and windy conditions (and smaller waves early morning).

All in all, Sunday will be a day better spent away from the ocean, so aim for a morning surf on Saturday.

Next week (Monday 20th onwards)

Monday morning looks unreal for the beachies. 

Winds are expected to swing westerly overnight Sunday, and maintain moderate to fresh strength. This should rapidly clean up the lumps and bumps from Sunday’s blow.

Unfortunately, the NE fetch developing along the eastern flank of the coastal trough will retreat quickly south-east through Sunday, which diminishes its swell generating potential. This is a shame as the synoptic setup is otherwise really promising.

As such, we are looking at a steady - possibly rapid - drop in size from the NE tending E/NE throughout Monday. Early morning will have the biggest waves, somewhere around 3-4ft at most open beaches in Northern NSW, possibly a little smaller across SE Qld, especially the Sunshine Coast.

By the afternoon we’ll be down to 2-3ft, maybe even smaller, depending on how fast the fetch retreats. But it should be very clean.

Tuesday and Wednesday are then looking at small residual E’ly swell, mainly 1-1.5ft across SE Qld, with a few bigger sets in the 2ft range from Byron south to Coffs, and possibly a few bigger sets from Coffs to Seal Rocks on Tuesday.

A deep low pressure system is expected to form at the bottom of the coastal trough on Monday, off the South Coast of NSW. This will instigate storm force S/SW thru’ SW winds in the south-western Tasman Sea, but they won’t be in a great position for Northern NSW - the fetch will be partially shadowed by the Hunter curve, and will also rotate steadily clockwise, aiming itself outside of the swell window. 

We are likely to see two pulses of southerly swell push across Northern NSW on Tuesday and then again on Wednesday but I’m not confident of any major size away from reliable south swell magnets. At this stage I’ll ballpark some inconsistent 3ft+ sets at a handful of south facing beaches, but most beaches will probably dip out. Let’s take a closer look on Monday as we should have some satellite data to confirm wind strengths, directions and positions by this stage.  

Otherwise, the longer term outlook looks a little quiet to finish next week with nothing major on the synoptic charts. A broad trough is expected to develop in our far eastern swell window next week (well south of Tahiti) and this could provide some small long range E’ly swell later next weekend or early the following week. 

Otherwise, an amplifying upper level long wave trough is expected to push in from the west later in the week, and could very well be the trigger for a significant Tasman Low sometime next weekend or early in the following week. We’ll have more on that in Monday’s update.