Great run of swell with favourable winds

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 23rd March)

Best Days: Every day over the coming period, biggest tomorrow and Friday morning

Recap

A mix of good easing S/SE groundswell and slowly building E'ly trade-swell the last couple of days, clean and good each morning.

This week and next (Mar 24 – Apr 1)

Our coming E'ly trade-swell event is still on track, with ASCAT satellite images between New Zealand and Fiji/New Caledonia showing a very healthy fetch of E/SE gales on top an already active sea state.

What has resulted is a moderate sized E'ly trade-swell with a stronger E'ly groundswell pulse for tomorrow morning/midday.

Open beaches should see easy 3-4ft surf, with strong 5ft sets from the Sunshine Coast through the Mid North Coast, holding most of the day, before starting to ease back from 3-4ft+ Friday morning (quicker north of the border due to the fetch dipping south-east and across New Zealand through last night this morning.

A slow easing trend will continue through the weekend, but not dipping below an inconsistent 3ft on the sets due to a healthy and persistent fetch of strong E'ly winds east of New Zealand's North Island.

There'll be one final pulse of very inconsistent long-range E/SE groundswell for mainly Queensland through next week, and this will be generated by a deepening tropical low in our far swell window south of Tahiti through tomorrow evening and Friday.

A great looking fetch of 35kt+ E/SE winds will be produce over an active sea state, with a very inconsistent long-range E/SE groundswell arriving Wednesday afternoon and peaking Thursday morning to 3ft+ across open beaches. Due to the shadowing of New Zealand's North Island and unfavourable Great Circle Path, locations south of the border will see gradually less size.

Now, coming back to this week, and there's an overperforming S'ly groundswell moving up the NSW coast, generated by a vigorous polar low south-west of Tassie at the start of the week.

This swell should arrive across the North Coast this later this afternoon and provide 3ft to possibly 4ft sets across swell magnets, easing back through tomorrow from a similar or slightly smaller size.

Saturday morning should see small levels of refracted S'ly groundswell to 2ft to maybe 3ft from a small fast tracking low under and east of Tassie this afternoon and evening.

Behind this a flurry of strong polar frontal activity producing good swells for Bells should produce further S'ly groundswell pulses for later Sunday and more so Monday afternoon.

Size wise, a kick to 3ft+ is due across south swell magnets Sunday afternoon, with Monday's kick being better and more to 3-4ft through the mid-late afternoon, easing back into Tuesday.

None of these S'ly groundswell pulses will impact north of the border, with the Tweed the last chance to capitalise on the action.

Coming back to the conditions over the coming week and we're looking at good local offshore breezes each morning from tomorrow through early next week, opening up plenty of options.

Comments

_benno's picture
_benno's picture
_benno Wednesday, 23 Mar 2016 at 7:49pm

Thanks Craig...I'm quite looking forward to seeing what tomorrow morning brings.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 24 Mar 2016 at 8:09am

A beautiful east set pushing down through Greeny..

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Thursday, 24 Mar 2016 at 10:11am

No 5fters where I was. Few 4fters early but even they died off after dawn.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 24 Mar 2016 at 10:15am

Hasn't kicked in yet I feel, I did say filling in through the morning/midday. Period pulse on the charts yesterday looked to hit around 10am.

Buoys have dropped a little as well..

the chase's picture
the chase's picture
the chase Thursday, 24 Mar 2016 at 10:56am

Shit surfed down the road.i didn't even check the usally crowded place.

Booka78's picture
Booka78's picture
Booka78 Thursday, 24 Mar 2016 at 2:13pm

Surfed TOS this morn not much quality about ....probably due to the tide but began improving about 6.30-7am probably cranking now

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 24 Mar 2016 at 2:27pm

I think I got sucked in a little to those ASCAT images put up. Personally I didn't think the fetch looked as good for SE Qld, and alas down here the swell has kicked to 3-5ft and strong. Bigger than up there.

wellymon's picture
wellymon's picture
wellymon Thursday, 24 Mar 2016 at 5:48pm

That is exactly what I mentioned on Monday forecasts Craig!
Looked more of a E-NE fetch above NZ? Heading striaght down your ways;)
No-one wanted to know. Sheepio pulled out an Ascat and I thought that was a fair call!
But haha NO.

Tuesday was the day up here.
Not today;)

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Friday, 25 Mar 2016 at 2:21pm

Timing was a bit out, welly..... Filled in late thurs.... Dawn this morning at swell magnets recording solid 2 meter swell..... Dunno what you wanna call that..

https://www.qld.gov.au/environment/coasts-waterways/beach/waves-sites/br...

Some other areas peaked unfortunately overnight at around 1.7m..
Such is life..... Infra red goggles bro....

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 24 Mar 2016 at 6:58pm

 

Give yourself an uppercut if I asked you to come surf today and you weren't there. Josh Fuller knows what's up @in2surf

A photo posted by Andrew Shield (@andrewshield) on

Umunga's picture
Umunga's picture
Umunga Friday, 25 Mar 2016 at 1:19pm

is it me or is this swell straight
cant find a decent bank around my joint

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 25 Mar 2016 at 1:22pm

Swell is a longer-range trade-swell and hence more lined up and straighter than normal localised events in the Tasman Sea.

So if you don't have a good bank it'll be closey.

Umunga's picture
Umunga's picture
Umunga Friday, 25 Mar 2016 at 2:17pm

yep sure was Craig
all though I didn't go hunting to far
hard to get the decent days due to work commitments
what I saw on Wednesday looked good up here on the SC