South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 23rd October)

Best Days: Sat/Sun: easing S/SE swells with mainly light winds in the mornings. Biggest and best in Northern NSW early Saturday, but keep your expectations low. Later Tues/Wed: interesting mix of S'ly and SE swells for Northern NSW, and a chance for a period of light winds as a trough winds up off the coast. 

Recap: Thursday played out as expected with northerly winds generally ruining the surf at most locations (tho’ the northern end of the Gold Coast saw a brief window of NW winds at dawn). A southerly change pushed across the Northern NSW coast overnight, reaching the Gold Coast just after dawn and the Sunshine Coast mid-morning, and although most parts of Northern NSW were very average - bar some of the protected points north from Ballina into the Tweed Coast - the Gold Coast dished up excellent runners in the 2-3ft range, being a mix of small E’ly swell and some peaky NE swell. This E/NE swell combo has eased slowly during the day, and a building southerly windswell in the wake of the change is (presently) only showing at south facing beaches which are wind affected.

Snapper pumping this morning

This weekend (Saturday 24th - Sunday 25th)

The fetch trailing today’s change looks pretty impressive on paper, however there is one key characteristic that will significantly limit surf potential. That is: the system is moving eastwards, perpendicular to our swell window. This means that the swell generating winds will not remain in position long enough to generate any meaningful size. 

However, earlier stages of this system were better aligned for swell production, and have generated a solid southerly groundswell that produced solid surf across Southern NSW today. This swell is now pushing up into Northern NSW and will peak overnight or in the early hours of Saturday morning before trending down throughout the day. Unfortunately, very little of this energy is expected north of the border. 

Southeast Qld: Saturday morning looks the best of an ordinary lot. We’ll see a mix of small residual E’ly swell and refracted S/SE swell across the Coast, no more than 1ft to maybe 2ft at most Gold/Sunny Coast beaches, with bigger waves in the 3ft range at south swell magnets. 

However winds are expected to be moderate SE for much of the day so expect some bumpiness on the surface. That being said, some regions - probably just the southern Gold Coast and surrounds - should see a period of light SW winds in the early morning, so this may allow for a small window of opportunity at said swell magnets.

On Sunday, we’re looking at a smaller (!) combo of swells with early light variable winds tending moderate E/NE during the day. So, south swell magnets will be the pick early before the wind gets up.

Northern NSW: This building southerly swell should reach a peak early Saturday morning ahead of a steady easing trend all weekend. Exposed south facing beaches in the Far North (south of Byron, though) should be anywhere between 3ft and maybe 5ft at first light, with smaller surf south of Yamba - as the swell will essentially be drying up from the south, so to speak.

Beaches not directly open to the south will be smaller, and we’re looking at a moderate E/SE breeze throughout the day, light and variable for a period early morning. Expect smaller surf throughout the day.

Sunday doesn’t have much promise for anything spectacular, with light variable winds and easing swells through the day. 

A small southerly groundswell (originating from a polar low briefly aimed into our swell window as it slipped through the southern Tasman Sea this morning) is expected to move up the coast on Sunday but I doubt we’ll see much more than a stray 1-2ft set at exposed south swell magnets. Aim for the morning session for the best waves ahead of a freshening NE sea breeze into the afternoon (these winds will become quite gusty south of Ballina after lunch). However protected northern corners open to the south may have a few inconsistent waves when this new S’ly swell pushes through.

Next week (Monday 26th onwards)

We’ve got a dynamic period of weather and surf on the way for next week.

But, the week looks like it’s going to star off on a dreary note with freshening northerlies as a trough advances along the Southern NSW coast. Without any major surf it’s not worth getting too worried about, however we will have another small S’ly groundswell in the water during Monday, generated by a decent front/low combo tracking south of Tasmania today. 

This swell will only favour Northern NSW with inconsistent sets in the 2ft+ range, and only at reliable south swell magnets. I wouldn’t worry too much about it but if you’re desperate to get wet - and if local winds end up being a little more favourable than currently forecast (due to the approaching trough) there may be a window of opportunity. Expect a delayed arrival on the Far North Coast, around lunchtime. So, the afternoon is probably the best chance in most areas if you can find some protection from the wind.

The approaching trough looks like it’ll stall around the Mid North Coast early Tuesday, so the wind outlook for Tues/Wed is a little tricky right now - south of the trough line (i.e. through southern NSW) we’re looking at strengthening E’ly winds but the models also evolve this trough into a closed low (Possibly an ECL, more likely a Tasman Low) which further complicates things, as there may be a period of a N’ly inflow across Far Northern NSW and SE Qld. Somewhere in between - i.e. Mid North Coast - winds will probably be variable throughout this period.

Now before we get wound up about the surf potential from this developing system, the trough prior - and it’s deep parent low in the Southern Ocean - will have whipped up a decent south swell that’s expected to build later Tuesday (in the south) and into Wednesday (in the north). And on top of that, once the trough stalls across the Tasman, a broad E/SE fetch stretching out towards New Zealand should generate a brief SE swell for Wednesday before the low develops and swings the fetch back to the south, outside of our swell window.

At this stage south facing beaches in Northern NSW are probably looking at sets in the 3-4ft+ range during this period, which is higher than our swell model is estimating but I don’t think it’s presently capturing this system very well. So, expect an upgrade in the model guidance over the coming days. 

Regardless, this swell probably won’t do much north of the border due to the swell direction - we’ll probably see a brief flush of SE swell on Wednesday but no more than a foot or two across outer points. 

Beyond Wednesday, the second half of the week looks very dynamic as this low winds up. Current expectations are for a sizeable local swell in Southern NSW on Thursday and Friday but the low may not push into our swell window until later Thursday so we may not see an appreciable size increase until Friday. 

Right now it’s too hard to have any confidence in the likely size and timing, so we’ll review the data more comprehensively on Monday. But gut feeling right now is that it’ll be more like a Friday swell event for the Mid North Coast, reaching the Far North Coast and SE Qld regions by Saturday. More on this in Monday’s update.