South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 28th August)

*sorry for the delay on these Forecaster Notes, normal programming should resume next week*

Best Days: Sat/Sun: early offshore winds and a rebuilding S'ly swell throughout the day (Northern NSW) and a small E'ly swell (SE Qld). Mon: strong S'ly swell in Northern NSW, only small in SE Qld away from the swell magnets. Tues: plenty of sideband SE swell across Northern NSW, only small in SE Qld. Size easing Wed. Thurs/Fri: complex setup, possibly another ECL, but dicey winds.

Recap: Plenty of strong southerly swell across Northern NSW this morning with easing 4-5ft waves at south facing beaches, and smaller surf elsewhere (very inconsistent sets though). This swell didn’t really do much north of the border - away from south swell magnets - although a small inconsistent E’ly swell maintained rideable waves at open beaches. Early light winds kept conditions clean before afternoon sea breezes kicked in after lunch.

This weekend (Aug 29 - 30)

No major changes from yesterday’s notes. Today’s small E’ly swell will continue through both days, probably biggest on Sunday with set waves in the 1-2ft+ range throughout SE Qld.

In Northern NSW, the south swell we saw today will ease throughout the morning but a new south swell will build concurrently, arriving across the Mid North Coast early (it’s already building across Southern NSW right now) before reaching the North and Far North Coasts after lunch time. This swell will originate from a small low that developed off the Southern NSW coast today, and it should provide 3-4ft sets at south facing beaches by late afternoon. However we will likely be under the influence of a moderate sea breeze by this time, so you’ll have to tuck into a sheltered northern corner for the best waves.

This swell probably won’t do much north of the border either, due to its source and direction.

On Sunday, Saturday's south swell will slowly easing in size across Northern NSW, with early light offshore winds tending moderate to fresh southerly throughout the day. A solid new S’ly groundswell due early next week should start to push through the Mid North Coast after lunch, originating from a secondary fetch located much further south (developing tonight, SE of Tasmania). However it may not reach the North Coast until very late in the day (or overnight) - so keep your expectations of a late kick low in this neck of the woods (say, north of Coffs). But south of Coffs to Seal Rocks we may see south swell magnets pushing 4-6ft at times as the swell reaches a peak, with smaller waves elsewhere.

Otherwise, across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW expect a small combo of E’ly and S’ly swell to pad out the beach breaks with peaky waves on Sunday. 

Next week (Aug 31 onwards)

Sunday’s late kick in new S’ly swell should push across the remaining North Coast swell magnets on Monday. There’ll be a very large range in wave heights due to the southerly direction, anywhere from 4-6ft at exposed spots, down to 2-3ft at sheltered locations. Winds will remain from the southern quadrant but should be light SW for much of the morning. 

I’m still dubious as to the potential of this swell north of the border on Monday though. It’s an unusual source and alignment, and whilst it’s easy to instinctively pull back size expectations due to the southerly direction, the swell will have a strong period and the initial width of the fetch (despite a short overall length) is expected to span most of the Southern Tasman Sea on Saturday.

Therefore, this could create some small peelers across the outer SE Qld points (say, 2ft+, with very long breaks between 'em), whilst south swell magnets across the region should see bigger waves in the 3-4ft range. But it’ll be very inconsistent, and most open SE Qld beaches will probably remain inconsistent and small in the 1-2ft range. 

The broader low responsible for this swell will remain slow moving in the Tasman Sea for quite a few days next week, and it’s expected to generate a healthy SE swell for Southern NSW. However, most of the fetch looks like it’ll be aimed towards points south of our region which means we’re probably looking at smaller sideband energy for the middle to latter part of next week.

At this stage south facing beaches in Northern NSW will see the most size (say, 3-5ft through Tuesday and Wednesday, easing from Thursday), but it’ll be smaller elsewhere due to the direction - though not quite the same large range in size we usually see from straight southerly swells.

North of the border I’m not confident that we’ll see much more than an inconsistent 1-2ft across most of the Gold and (to a lesser degree) Sunshine Coast, however south swell magnets in these regions should pick up occasional 3ft sets. 

Local winds look good across most areas on Monday and Tuesday but freshening NE winds are expected from Wednesday afternoon. So make the most of what’s on offer early in the week. 

From Thursday onwards, we’ve got another complex low expected to develop off the coast that could result in another ECL to finish the week. Current model guidance suggests strengthening E’ly winds both days (and solid, building short range swell). This will invariably move around (timing, and coastal target) but we’re certainly looking at plenty of swell to finish the week somewhere across the East Coast (there’ll also be a sneaky E/SE in the mix on Thursday, originating from a brief E/SE fetch developing west of Cook straight later Mon/early Tues).

So, the end of next week and the following weekend is currently on target for another large short range swell - but I’ll have more on this in Monday’s update.