South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 21st August)

Best Days: Sat: Strong S'ly swell (Northern NSW) and peaky E'ly swell (SE Qld), with mainly onshore winds but hopefully light enough to keep conditions OK. Easing surf through Sun with tricky winds, may be N/NW early. Late Tues onwards: building SE swell but with mainly onshore winds (SE tending E'ly tending E/NE); should be OK initially for protected locations in Northern NSW and outer points of SE Qld. 

Recap: Thursday morning delivered fun easing S’ly swell across Northern NSW, but surf size was very small in SE Qld. A short range E’ly swell built into the afternoon, and provided reasonable waves across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW today, with 3ft sets on the Gold Coast (see Greenmount surfcam still below), slightly bigger surf on the Sunshine Coast but smaller waves south of the border. Winds have been mainly onshore however there have been periods of light winds, with acceptable conditions in a few locations. Elsewhere, a new long period southerly groundswell built across Southern NSW today and pushed into the Mid North Coast late afternoon (this swell should reach the Far North Coast overnight). 

This weekend (Aug 22 - 23)

Sydney picked up this new southerly groundswell really well this afternoon, with set waves in the 4-5ft range. We should see this energy across the entire North Coast on Saturday morning, and some swell magnets may even see occasional bombs punching above this size range, but for the most part most south facing beaches should hold in the 4-5ft range. 

Additionally, the short range E’ly swell we saw in SE Qld today should persist into Saturday morning before easing slowly throughout the afternoon. However, wave heights will tail off south of about Ballina so don’t expect much size form this source from Yamba to Seal Rocks. 

Both sources will ease in size from later Saturday through most of Sunday, but there’ll be plenty of waves on offer throughout the day.

The main concern this weekend are the local winds. However, as per what we’ve seen today I think there's a chance that we’ll see periods of light, if not variable winds across many regions. Whilst the synoptic flow is expected to be NE tending N’ly, it won’t be particularly strong on Saturday so despite some surface lumpiness we should see workable conditions across a few locations. Keep your expectations low and you may do OK.

Sunday looks a little trickier with a developing trough off the Southern NSW coast expected to strengthen the pressure gradient to the north, resulting in a freshening N/NW wind. Under this scenario early winds would probably be NW but it’s hard to have confidence for any major quality when the overall pattern will have been out of the northern quadrant the day prior.

As such, keep your expectations low for any quality both days, and aim for Saturday as it’ll see the most size.

Next week (Aug 24 onwards)

How things change! Wednesday’s forecast notes detailed a developing trough later this weekend that was likely to spin up a strong E/SE fetch aimed into Far Southern NSW early next week.

The latest models are now suggesting this will develop into a closed system - possibly an East Coast Low - and therefore we’ve got a much different outlook as the resulting fetch will now be aimed straight into the Sydney region.

However, the swell potential for Northern NSW doesn’t look amazing, as the overall fetch doesn’t look to be particularly strong or focused. Yes, we’ll see a swell increase (probably from Tuesday afternoon onwards) but no major size or strength is expected and the accompanying winds will probably be SE, limiting the best waves to protected corners and points. 

If anything, this pattern will probably favour the outer points in SE Qld (from Wednesday onwards), as there should be just enough size for them to work properly (say, 3ft or so) and they’ll handle the winds. But at this point in time it certainly doesn’t look like being a noteworthy swell event - just another to keep things ticking over.

(As a side note, Monday will see continuing N’ly winds and a small mix of peaky windswell). 

In fact, the pattern through the second half of the week looks rather uninspiring. A building high pressure system to the south will focus the winds to the east on Wednesday, then E/NE on Thursday and NE on Friday as a new trough begins to develop along the coastal strip. This will maintain plenty of short range E’ly swell for all coasts but until the trough pushes off the coast (a possibility later Thurs/Fri, but mainly in SE Qld and perhaps Far Northern NSW) we are unlikely to see any quality.

Looking further ahead, and we’ve got some potentially explosive developments for southern NSW into next weekend (or early in the following week) with a chance for another East Coast Low to develop off the coast. So, there’s no shortage of excitement to look forward to in these notes next week. 

Additionally, a series of powerful Southern Ocean lows moving through our far southern swell window will generate a series of small, long period events that'll add more complexity to the mix (the first swell around Wed/Thurs and another around Sat), but only for Northern NSW. 

But.. this is all quite some time away - I’ll update these thoughts on Monday. Until then have a great weekend!