South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 14th August)

Best Days: Sat/Sun: small clean south swell in Northern NSW with mainly light winds (except Sat PM). Only small in SE Qld. Late Mon/Tues: chance for a small funky SE swell. Late Tues/Wed: solid S'ly swell, best Wed. Fri/Sat: solid long period south swell with generally good winds.

Recap: As expected, Wednesday’s late pulse of NE swell eased rapidly overnight with tiny waves on offer early Thursday morning. A new south swell built slowly during the afternoon but showed strongest today with solid 4-5ft sets at south facing beaches south of Byron Bay, 3ft+ across the Tweed Coast (see pics below) but only 1-2ft across most Gold and Sunshine Coast beaches (a little bigger at outer points, and bigger again at south swell magnets). Winds have been generally favourable although afternoon sea breezes created bumpy conditions this afternoon across a few regions.

This weekend (Aug 15 - 16)

No changes to the weekend forecast. The current south swell will ease a little into Saturday, but we should still see early 3-4ft sets at south facing beaches across Northern NSW before it loses a little more size during the day. Expect smaller surf at remaining beaches.

Due to the southerly swell direction, surf size will remain very small in SE Qld away from south swell magnets. The outer points should have a few occasional peelers in the 2ft+ range early morning though.

Local winds are looking good for the early session but a weak front will enter the Tasman Sea during the morning and will probably instigate a moderate southerly change across most regions during the day. So, if you’re planning on surfing an open south facing beach, aim for a morning paddle for the cleanest conditions.

On Sunday, surf size may dip slightly in the morning but we’re likely to see a minor reinforcement of southerly swell during the day (arriving earliest across the Mid North Coast, later across the Far North Coast), thanks to a S’ly fetch trailing the front entering the Tasman Sea on Saturday. It won’t generate any major new size but south swell magnets should see 3ft+ sets as the swell rebuilds (with smaller surf ahead of it). However, beaches not open to the south - especially the bulk of the SE Qld region - will be considerably smaller. So, expect only small surf across the Gold and Sunshine Coasts on Sunday too.

The good news for Sunday is that conditions are looking reasonably favourable all day thanks to a light variable wind under a dominant ridge of high pressure. Keep in mind that ‘variable’ winds means it could blow from any direction, but the most likely trend is early offshore, possibly afternoon onshore. Either way there shouldn’t be too much strength.

Next week (Aug 17 onwards)

The weekend’s frontal passage into the lower Tasman Sea is still expected to form a small low off the West Coast of New Zealand’s South Island, on Saturday. Models have slightly downgraded the potential from this system - a slightly worse alignment, for a slightly shorter period of time with a little less wind strength - but that being said, I think we’ll see a fun SE swell build very late Monday from this source and hold through Tuesday. 

In fact, this looks like being a sneaky SE swell that the models aren’t picking up very well. Sure, it’s not an epic synoptic chart but I’m reasonably confident that well exposed south facing beaches south of Byron could see anywhere between 3ft and occasionally 5ft of decent SE swell arriving from very late Monday, through into Tuesday. However, experience has shown that these swells are often hit and miss at many locations though, so keep your expectations low - it's certainly not worth any major road time. Sets are likely to be quite inconsistent too. 

Surf size will be much smaller at beaches not open to the south (tho' not quite as much as under a straight south swell) and although the Gold Coast will benefit from the more-eastern position of the fetch, I think we probably won’t see much more than an inconsistent 2ft+ here.

This swell’s arrival is also of concern as it’s not expected to push through until very late Monday - so Tuesday morning is probably a safer bet in the Far North and SE Qld regions (although, keep an eye on the surfcams in Southern NSW to tracks its arrival - I’ll comment below as useful information comes to hand). 

So, prior to this SE swell arriving, Monday will be looking at easing S’ly swell from Sunday, with tiny waves in SE Qld and fun easing surf across exposed beaches in Northern NSW, under a moderate W’ly wind. 

In addition to the funky SE swell mentioned above, we also have some strong south swell on the way for Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday, originating from an intense low that’s expected to cross the Tasmanian region overnight Sunday before entering our south swell window on Monday.

We’ll see some solid but ragged waves at exposed beaches by Tuesday afternoon from this source (4-6ft across south facing beaches of the Mid North Coast, reaching the Far North overnight and peaking Wednesday morning). Tuesday afternoon looks pretty ordinary though with winds expected to swing from the W/SW to a gusty S’ly during the morning. Wednesday should see improving conditions as the synoptic wind eases and winds tend light and variable again.

SE Qld won’t do very well from this south swell either, but Wednesday will offer the best opportunity to capitalise on it, with 1-2ft waves at most beaches, occasional 2-3ft sets at the outer points and bigger waves at south swell magnets. 

Looking beyond the Tues/Wed south swell, and we have some unreal long period southerly groundswell (for Northern NSW) lining up for the longer term period. An intense polar low tracking along the ice shelf well below the continent on Sunday and Monday (see chart below) is expected to generate new energy that’ll probably reach the Southern NSW Coast late Thursday, before filling into the Northern NSW Coast during Friday and holding through the weekend. At this stage we should be looking at excellent quality 3-5ft south swell at south swell magnets, with smaller surf elsewhere. More on this in Monday’s update.