South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 7th August)

Best Days: Sat: easing S'ly swell in Northern NSW and early offshores, but probably too small for SE Qld. Sun: strong S'ly swell - even some small peelers in SE Qld - with light variable winds. Surf easing Mon with light winds again.

Recap: A strong southerly swell has provided plenty of waves across Northern NSW over the last two days, but only small surf in SE Qld due to the swell direction. Winds have been from the west (mornings) tending southerly during the days, so beach breaks have had the best options early with protected locations cleanest after lunch (although the Gold Coast did see NE winds on Thursday afternoon, in contrast to the Sunny Coast and Far Northern NSW which saw S/SW winds).

This weekend (August 8 - 9)

We’ve got another round of southerly swell pushing up the coast, and it’s going to provide some great waves on Sunday.

Prior to then most of Saturday will see easing southerly energy from today, along with a small, very inconsistent round of persistent trade swell across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW. This trade swell hasn’t really showed much along the coast in the last few days, and with model data suggesting similar periods/sizes for the weekend I’m yet to find any evidence to get excited about.

Saturday’s southerly swell should provide some good waves early morning about exposed south facing beaches in Northern NSW (3ft+ sets) however we are once again at the risk of seeing early W’ly winds tend SW mid morning, then moderate to fresh S/SW through the afternoon. So aim for an early paddle for the best waves. 

The new southerly groundswell should start to push across the Mid North Coast from mid-late morning onwards, and by the mid-late afternoon we should see some solid sets at south facing beaches (4-5ft), although a peak in size is expected on Sunday morning. But with gusty S/SW winds by this time you’ll have to dive into sheltered spots for the best waves.

I am doubtful that we’ll see an appreciable increase in size north of Yamba or Ballina before 3-4pm on Saturday, so locations north of here are looking at a slow easing trend all day, with similar winds (albeit lighter in strength north of the Tweed Coast, than to the south). Overall the SE Qld region can expect very small residual waves on Saturday. 

On Sunday, the south swell should be well and truly in the water early morning, and winds are looking really good all day - just light and variable across the coast (note: keep in mind that ‘light variable winds’ means that they could come from any direction - including onshore - although it’s likely that the morning and lunch period will be offshore at least). 

South facing beaches in Northern NSW should pick up strong sets in the 4-6ft range early morning, ahead of an easing trend into the afternoon, and it’ll be smaller across most beaches and semi-exposed points in the 3-5ft range. Across SE Qld, this southerly swell will once again be significantly smaller at most of the region's beaches (1-2ft) but the outer points are likely to pull in occasional 2ft to almost 3ft sets at times, and south swell magnets (the handful of ‘em) should see 3-4ft bombs. 

So, Sunday’s the day - but there’ll be waves on Saturday too if you can work around the winds. 

Next week (August 10 onwards)

Monday should offer good waves early morning with offshore winds and an easing S’ly swell across the region. South facing beaches in Northern NSW should see a few 3-4ft+ sets at dawn, but it’ll be smaller elsewhere. Most beaches in SE Qld may see occasional 1-2ft waves with 2ft+ sets at the outer points, but it’ll be inconsistent and will ease throughout the day. Light variable winds are expected on Monday too. 

The trend through Tuesday and Wednesday will be down from the south, in fact by this time we’ll be back to very, very small conditions across the region.

An impressive storm located way out in the South Pacific on the edge of our swell window (S/SE of Tahitian longitudes, and also within the partial swell shadow of New Zealand - see below) is expected to deliver some small long period lines sometime from about Wednesday afternoon onwards, but any surf we see is likely to be extremely inconsistent, and very small - maybe 1-2ft across SE Qld and smaller south of about Yamba. However, in the absence of any other swell events, it might be enough to keep the open beaches (just) rideable. I’ll try to pin down the timing on this swell on Monday. 

Elsewhere, the Southern Ocean storm track is expected to remain aligned well and truly away from our swell window from Sunday through the middle of the week. A strong series of fronts across the eastern states are expected to initially ride quite north in latitude; it’s not until the associated Long Wave Trough starts to push into Tasmanian longitudes mid-week (with yet another possible cold outbreak for the region, delivering snow a considerable distance north of the Alps) that we’ll start to see south-west gales develop off the Southern NSW coast, sometime around Thursday, with a fairly rapid increase in short range south swell to follow. 

A strong polar front rounding the Tasmanian corner on Thursday (associated with the same broad pattern) will then push into the lower Tasman Sea and should provide a little more juice for Friday morning. It’s hard to have confidence on how much size we might see from this system, but 3-5ft sets at south swell magnets in Northern NSW is a possibility - although these locations would also feel the effects of an accompanying SW breeze. So, locations that are out of the wind would be considerably smaller (and I’m doubtful that we’ll see much size in SE Qld either).

Beyond the end of next week, it seems that the longer term will remain under the influence of a broad Long Wave Trough pattern, with a series of deep Southern Ocean lows expected to generate a solid, long period southerly groundswell later next weekend or early in the following week. More on this in Monday’s update.