South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 5th August)

Best Days: Thurs/Fri/Sat/Sun: pulsey series of solid S'ly swells in Northern NSW, with periods of good winds. Sunday and Monday (easing) the pick. Only small in SE Qld due to the direction, but late Thurs, early Fri and (especially) Sunday all have potential for some fun small waves.

Recap: A strong southerly swell built across Northern NSW on Tuesday, a little earlier than expected with some small afternoon lines showing across SE Qld. This swell persisted into this morning but has eased throughout the day. 

This week (August 6 - 7)

No major changes to the forecast notes. We’ve got a small trade swell expected to persist through the next three or four days; no major size but a foot or two across exposed beaches in Far Northern NSW and SE Qld.

Meanwhile, our southern swell window is amping up again and this will be the dominant theme for the entire forecast period. A series of vigorous fronts are tracking, and will continue to track through the southern Tasman Sea, each of which will be working on the pre-existing sea state of the previous system. This will help to enhance wave heights across the region. 

The first front pushed north-east of Tasmania this morning, and the resulting south swell should fill in on Thursday morning across the Mid North Coast, reaching the Far North Coast during the afternoon, possibly not pushing into SE Qld until the evening. This swell is due to peak on Friday morning with 4-5ft sets at south facing beaches in Northern NSW, with much smaller waves elsewhere due to the swell direction. 

In SE Qld, with Thursday not expected to see an appreciable increase until the evening, we’re looking at Friday for the most energy - and once again the swell direction will significantly cap wave heights here. Still, despite most beaches probably seeing just a foot or two of inconsistent, refracted swell, the outer points may pull in bigger 2ft+ sets and south swell magnets should be closer to 3ft+ at times. 

The main concern over the next few days is a fresh W/SW tending SW then S/SW breeze, that’ll eventually blow out exposed locations by mid-late morning. As such, semi-exposed points in Northern NSW will offer the cleanest conditions, despite not picking up as much size. These winds will also favour the outer points in SE Qld too, with the open beaches likely to become wind affected during the day (apart for a period of SW winds early morning).

So, keep an eye on the surfcams and I'll update developments in the notes below if the swell is running ahead or behind schedule.

This weekend (August 8 - 9)

The polar low expected to generate our weekend’s southerly swell is shaping up very nicely. The low is expected to hold peak intensity from tonight through most of Thursday in a NE track across the Southern Ocean; not perfectly aligned for us but as the fetch will be working on an active sea state it won’t require quite as much work to generate a solid swell event.

This swell should build all day Saturday across the Mid North Coast but may not reach the Far North Coast and SE Qld until mid-late afternoon at the earliest. As such, most of Saturday will see easing southerly swell (and a small undercurrent of trade swell) north of about Yamba or Ballina, with similar winds as per Saturday thanks to a ridge driving across the coast (early W/SW tending SW then moderate to fresh S/SW into the afternoon).

Once the swell hits we should see plenty of size at south facing beaches with sets in the 4-6ft range. Semi-exposed points will be the best option under the afternoon S/SW breeze, but surf size will be little smaller here. Similar waves heights are expected for most of Sunday but with rapidly easing SW tending variable winds as the high relaxes across the region. 

In SE Qld, Sunday’s looking pretty good on the balance (especially for this time of year). The southerly swell direction is still very unfavourable for this region but the large wavelength should assist in maintaining a high degree of consistency for what should be some fun peelers across the outer points in the 2ft to sometimes 3ft range. Most Gold Coast beaches/reefs/points will be a little smaller, but south swell magnets will be considerably larger and with mainly light variable winds on hand there should be plenty of options to pick and choose from. However just keep in mind that due to the unfavourable storm track, set waves will be rather inconsistent at times in SE Qld and will probably have a smaller wave count too.

Next week (August 10 onwards)

Trailing southerly swell should keep south facing beaches active through Monday morning with 3-5ft sets at south facing beaches in Northern NSW, with smaller surf elsewhere. SE Qld should hover in the 2ft+ range off the outer points early morning (smaller at most beaches, bigger at south swell magnets) but an easing trend is expected during the day. 

You’ll want to make the most of the weekend’s (and Monday’s) surf too, because it looks like we’re heading towards an extended period of very small conditions for the rest of the week.

An approaching front on Monday - associated with an amplifying Long Wave Trough - looks like it’ll be quite zonal in structure, and is expected to ride quite north in latitude - meaning offshore winds and (likely) very little swell through the middle of the week. 

At this stage it looks like we may not see the next long wave trough clear to the east until the end of the week or next weekend, which suggests small surf right through this period. There’s certainly a chance for a few brief pulses of south swell from westerly gales existing eastern Bass Strait, and possibly some local northerly windswell, but on the whole I’d plan for a spell of small surf, with the next round of a solid southerly swell due next weekend of early in the following week. Let’s see how the models are stacking up on Friday.