South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 3rd August)

Best Days: Wed: early peak in small/med south swell in Northern NSW (not much in SE Qld) with early light winds. Fri/Sat/Sun: plenty of south swell for Northern NSW, even some small waves in SE Qld. 

Recap: Tiny waves for much of the last few days. Saturday saw some trailing south swell across exposed south facing beaches in Northern NSW but that was about it. A small trade swell that was expected to push up across SE Qld yesterday afternoon and into today hasn’t really achieved anything worthwhile, coming in a little smaller than expected. In any case there’ve been periods of northerly winds spoiling conditions anyway. 

This week (August 4 - 7)

A gusty southerly change will extend along the Northern NSW coast overnight, and should reach SE Qld in the early hours of the morning. This is the precursor to an extended period of southerly swell for the entire region.

Although we have an impressive out-of-season tropical system between the Solomon Islands and Fiji, most of its associated tradewinds are just north of our swell window. We will see several small pulses of east swell  over the coming week but they’ll all be greatly overshadowed by the dominant southerly swell. So, let’s not dwell on these minor swells too long at the present time. 

The southerly fetch establishing itself off the coast overnight won’t be strong enough, nor wide or long enough to generate any meaningful south swell for the region on Tuesday. Exposed south swell magnets should see a minor increase but it'll be accompanied by poor conditions.

This change will be linked to a more significant low that pushed east of Bass Strait this morning. It was only inside our swell window for a short period, but should nevertheless generate a new S’ly swell that’s due to build across the Mid North later Tuesday afternoon before reaching a peak overnight and then easing throughout Wednesday.

Note the swell chart table to the right, from our Coffs Harbour data point - the morning’s “4ft at south facing beaches” estimate has a primary south swell of 2.1m at just 6.3 seconds - this is all low quality windswell (and will probably be a slightly overcall anyway). By contrast, at 6pm the primary south swell is 2.0m at 13 seconds - much stronger groundswell - which our model is estimating will translate to 4-6ft (south facing beaches).

I think this is once again a slight overcall - I think we’re probably looking at 3-5ft surf from this source late afternoon across the Mid North Coast - however it highlights the need to look into the numbers that are responsible for the computer generated estimates. 

What this also suggests is that the Far North Coast probably won’t see this southerly groundswell arrive until overnight, so Wednesday morning will be the best time to consider surfing in Northern NSW. Winds are likely to be W/SW early morning as another front rears up from the west, so it should be clean at many locations. However the swell trend will be down during the day, and most beaches not completely open to the south will be much smaller (just 2ft+, smaller inside sheltered southern corners). 

As for SE Qld, I doubt we’ll see much more than a lonely foot of weak refracted swell at best on Wednesday. In fact there may very well be a slightly bigger level of easterly trade swell in the water (1-2ft+ across open Gold and Sunshine Coast beaches). South swell magnets should see a few bigger waves though (2-3ft) although the downwards trend will also kick in here throughout the afternoon. Winds should be mainly moderate from the SW all day here.

Another strong front/low combo will enter our southern swell window - east of Tasmania - later Wednesday and will provide a steady increase in southerly swell later Thursday across the Mid North Coast, reaching the Far North Coast overnight and holding through Friday across all regions. In fact we’re looking at waves from this broader source through into the weekend, courtesy of a series of secondary fronts racing around the western flank of the Long Wave Trough later this week (which should be positioned nicely in the Tasman Sea by this time).

So, Thursday morning will probably remain small for much of the day in the Far North (and SE Qld), but we should see a building trend from lunchtime in the south, with south facing beaches pushing 4-6ft at the end of the day (south of about Coffs Harbour). North of here, wave heights are likely to be several feet smaller with no upwards trend until very late at best, if we see anything at all.

Winds will however veer from the SW to the S/SW in association with these fronts, so only sheltered locations will have workable conditions. SE Qld should see a continuation of small refracted S’ly swell and E’ly trade swell, just 1-2ft+ at exposed beaches (maybe some bigger bombs at south swell magnets). 

Friday looks like a great day for semi-exposed points right along the Northern NSW Coast, under a fresh SW tending S/SW breeze. With south facing beaches likely to remain in the 4-6ft range, there should be a healthy percentage of size on offer elsewhere 3-5ft most open beaches/points, smaller inside sheltered southern corners). Even SE Qld should start to see a little more size filter in from the south by Friday, possibly in the 2ft range across many open beaches with a few bigger sets at semi-exposed points near 3ft (south swell magnets should be bigger again in the 4ft range, albeit rather wind affected). There’ll also be some small trade swell in the mix too. 

This weekend (August 8 - 9)

On Friday I discussed a longer polar fetch associated with the tail end of this long wave pattern that was expected to generate more southerly swell for this weekend. This scenario is still expected to eventuate however the entire storm track has been focused a little more clockwise (that is, aimed NE instead of N/NE), which is slightly out of alignment of our primary south swell window. 

Nevertheless, we are looking at a steady steam of quality south swells from Saturday through into the first half of next week. They won’t be quite as big as previously estimated, and as this stage local conditions are still unsure as some models are suggesting we’ll see a couple of weak fronts clip the coast over the weekend (maintaining a southerly airstream across the region). 

At this stage wave heights across Northern NSW should fluctuate somewhere in the 4-5ft range at south facing beaches both days, but it’ll be smaller at beaches not open to the south. Across SE Qld, we should see persistent southerly swell all weekend in the 2ft range at most beaches, with occasional 3ft sets at semi-exposed points and 4ft waves at south facing beaches - but I’ll revise all of this in Wednesday’s update.

Next week (August 10 onwards)

Aside from the last round of south swell (from the polar fetch mentioned above) due across the region on Monday, easing Tuesday, it’s looking like a slow week of waves next week. 

With the Long Wave Trough clearing to the east over the weekend it appears that our run of southerly groundswell will come to a halt sometime during the middle next week. As such, we’ll be relying on local weather systems in the Tasman Sea for surf potential during the middle to latter half of next week.

But right now, there’s not much showing on the charts. Tune back in on Wednesday to see if anything has popped up since then.