South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 1st July)

Best Days: Thurs: good winds (esp. early) and a strong, but inconsistent S'ly groundswell in Northern NSW. Small leftover trade swell in SE Qld. Sat/Sun/Mon: good winds and a pulsey series of south swells with good winds across most beaches. Only small in SE Qld though. Later next week: chance for a decent SE groundswell.

Recap: In general Tuesday performed close to expectations with a peaky trade swell producing fun waves across SE Qld, and a southerly groundswell producing 3-4ft waves at many south facing beaches in Northern NSW. However north of about Yamba, the south swell performed much better than expected - I surfed solid 3-4ft waves across the Tweed Coast late morning, and based on this observation exposed south facing beaches south of Byron should have been 4-6ft. Interestingly, despite performing strongly on the Tweed Coast, it didn’t appear to really show across the Gold or Sunshine Coasts - despite being inline with forecast expectations, I would have expected something given the North Coast’s size.

Today we’ve seen easing S’ly swell across Northern NSW and a steady trade swell across SE Qld, with generally light variable winds all day and great surface conditions. A new S’ly groundswell was expected to approach the Lower Mid North Coast this afternoon but it was a late arrival in Sydney so may not have pushed through yet. Crowdy Head buoy seems to have picked up a faint long period signal around 4pm (see below) but it’s too hard to discern from the pre-existing, easing southerly signal.

This week (July 2 - 3)

South facing beaches in Sydney saw plenty of 3-4ft sets in the last hour or so before dark this evening, so this is a reasonable guide as to what we can expect across south facing beaches in Northern NSW on Thursday as this southerly swell continues its way up the East Coast. There’ll be long breaks between sets, owing to the distant source and also the fat that we’re seeing only sideband energy, and it’ll also be smaller at beaches not open to the south. So you'll need to be patient.

Additionally, as the system (and its track) responsible for this swell is not too dissimilar to that of the low which produced Tuesday’s waves, I wouldn’t at all be surprised if the North and Far North Coasts perform above expectations with occasional bigger bombs. 

In SE Qld, the fun trade swell that’s occupied the region over the last few days will trend slowly downwards on Thursday but open beaches should still have up to a couple of feet of peaky, weakening swell on the Gold Coast, with a few bigger sets at times on the Sunny Coast. It'll probably get smaller and less consistent during the day. Don't expect much, if any of the southerly groundswell to reach here though.

Local winds are looking pretty good for much of Thursday in all areas (mainly light offshore), although a gusty S/SW change will sweep across the coast during the afternoon (initially the Mid North Coast, then the Far North Coast late in the day, into SE Qld overnight). In any case, aim for a surf before lunch as this will certainly offer the best window of conditions. 

On Friday, a gusty southerly breeze in the lee of Thursday’s late change will occupy much of the region, creating poor conditions away from protected locations. We’ll see a healthy south swell fill into exposed south facing Northern NSW beaches (5-6ft) but those locations handling the wind will be much smaller (3ft+), and average in quality, owing to the short period and acute southerly direction. 

In SE Qld, we’ll see even smaller surf from this system, just a foot or two at most beaches, with the semi-exposed points picking up a few bigger waves. South swell magnets should see larger surf (3ft+) but they’ll be all but blown out under these winds. A few locations (i.e. Southern Gold Coast) may see periods of SW winds early morning but in general expect a moderate to fresh southerly breeze. 

This weekend (July 4 - 5)

No changes to the weekend forecast - it’s looking very good in Northern NSW, and rather ordinary in SE Qld. 

Main reason for the average outlook north of the border is the swell direction. Aside from the handful of reliable south swell magnets (which, just quietly, should be quite fun thanks to a light variable airstream), most locations will struggle to see any size due to the southerly swell direction. So your best chance of a decent wave will be south of the border, in particular south of Byron Bay. 

Northern NSW’s weekend waves will originate from a broad fetch related to the front responsible for Friday’s southerly swell. These winds will actually extend all the way south to the ice shelf on Thursday, in fact a developing polar low should assist in injecting the existing southerly swell with some long period energy at times.

So, both days are likely to see strong but lully swells from the south, between 3ft and occasionlly 5ft at most south facing beaches, with smaller surf at remaining locations.

The difference with this weekend’s waves is that rather than being a well defined swell front with a predictable trend (i.e. up quickly, levelling out for a period, then tapering off slowly), we’ll see broad periods of inactivity, then spurts of energy as various swell fronts reach landfall. So, that’s the reason for the larger error margin this weekend - there’ll probably be four or five different pulses reach the coast at some point - including overnight - and estimating the precise arrival time, duration and intensity of each (including the overlap of each swell train) is quite difficult. 

But if I had to pick a day, Sunday looks the better of the two as there’s more confidence for the longer period energy to be present, and winds also look a little better (early Saturday may have a few lingering lumps from Friday’s winds, and the new S'ly groundswell may not arrive until mid-late afternoon in the north).

Nevertheless, in summary - it’s looking very good, and absolutely well worth your attention.

Next week (July 6 onwards)

Yet another strong pulse of southerly groundswell is expected to push up the coast on Monday, originating from an intense low modelled to cross the waters south of Tasmania on Saturday morning. Freshening W/NW winds should keep all beachbreaks nice and clean; we’re looking at 4-5ft surf filling into Northern NSW's south facing beaches throughout the morning with smaller surf elsewhere (although, those reliable spots could see a few bigger bombs every so often). This will will ease on Tuesday. 

Again, SE Qld won’t see much more than a lazy foot or (if we’re lucky) two from this event. So, hit up a south swell magnet for a little more size. 

A low is then expected to form in the southern Tasman Sea on Tuesday, delivering a mediocre mid-week south swell for Northern NSW (again, not much for SE Qld) and possibly some dicey southerly winds across the region. 

However, the Tasman low is then expected to track eastwards to a position off the West Coast of New Zealand before reforming and restrengthening, and this has all kinds of promise for a solid SE swell later next week (Thurs/Fri, maybe Sat). It’s still early days but we could be looking at anywhere between 4ft and maybe 6ft of strong SE swell across northern NSW with good winds locally, and smaller but fun surf into SE Qld. Let’s take a closer look in Friday’s update.