South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 29th June)

Best Days: Entire period in Northern NSW: great waves expected pretty much every day at south facing beaches (except Friday). Tues/Wed: small trade swell in SE Qld. 

Recap: Saturday and Sunday saw a fun combo of peaky E’ly swells across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, with smaller waves across the remaining North Coast. These easterly swells eased very slightly later Sunday and into this morning, however a new long period S’ly groundswell (peak swell periods of around 19 seconds at the Crowdy Head buoy and over 20 seconds at Byron Bay!) has delivered fun surf across south facing beaches of Northern NSW this afternoon (winds did swing moderate S’ly for a few hours, but it eased off late afternoon). Unfortunately this swell is too directional to have any meaningful impact north of Byron Bay.

This week (June 30 - July 3)

First things first: we’ve got a broad ridge across the Coral Sea and as a result we’ll see a small trade swell throughout SE Qld for the next couple of days. No major size but occasional 2-3ft sets at exposed beaches on the Sunshine Coast, with 2ft+ waves on the Gold Coast and then gradually smaller surf as you head south of the border. This should persist through Tuesday and Wednesday before slowly easing from Thursday onwards.

Elsewhere, we’ve got an extended period of south swells lining up for the Northern NSW coast, with good conditions forecast up until Friday.

The key aspect of this coming forecast period (re: south swells) will be nailing down the individual timing of each swell front, as they’ll each react differently across the various reefs and beaches. Estimating precise wave heights is harder than normal for this series of swells, because several of the swells are being (or will be) generated by very powerful low pressure systems that are poorly aligned within our swell window. This means that we’re having to estimate the percentage of sideband energy that’ll reach the NSW Coast, which always requires some elasticity. 

So, on to the particulars, and as detailed throughout much of last week we’ve got three distinct pulses due this week, spaced roughly two days apart. Today’s south swell will ease slowly through Tuesday but south facing beaches below Byron Bay should still see leftover sets in the 3-4ft range in the morning, ahead of a slow easing trend. It’ll be very inconsistent too, but conditions should be clean with mainly light variable winds.

Wednesday will mainly see slowly easing southerly swell from Tuesday (maybe some 2-3ft sets at south swell magnets) however the Mid North Coast is on track for a late arrival of long range southerly groundswell, being generated by an intense low currently tracking south of the Tasman Sea (see chart below). 

It’s not very well lined up but core wind speeds were recorded by satellite over the weekend in the 50-60kt range, over quite a distance (well SW of Tasmania). The sheer strength of these winds and the active sea state they were working on means there’ll be one heck of a large, long period swell event generated and even though it’s aimed into the South Island of New Zealand, we’ll see a healthy spread of size back into the Australian East Coast. Peak swell periods associated with the leading edge will probably come close to 19-20 seconds which is a rare occurrence in these waters.

Most of this swell will fill into the Northern NSW coast overnight Wednesday but the Mid North Coast may see some very late sets in the 3-4ft+ range at south facing beaches, with Thursday seeing a broader coverage of this swell across the region. Beaches with less southerly exposure will be smaller. However conditions should be good both days with generally light variable winds.

As for SE Qld, these south swells really won’t deliver much size so you can expect to rely on the small trade swell throughout this period.

Note: our swell model really isn’t picking up this event very well. It is showing strong periods but with a small associated size of just half a metre.. I think we’ll see probably double this size (about a metre at 18 seconds as the bulk of the swell fills in). Nevertheless, as mentioned above confidence is lower on estimated surf sizes from poorly aligned systems so it’ll be interesting to see what eventuates.

On Thursday afternoon, this southerly swell event will trend downwards and winds are eventually expected to swing westerly and freshen as a front approaches the region. This front will drive strong S/SW winds across the coast on Friday, and we’ll see a concurrent increase in solid short period south swell at south facing beaches (4-5ft+, smaller elsewhere). But conditions will be very bumpy and choppy at those locations picking up the size.

Gusty S’ly winds will also develop across SE Qld on Friday but the associated short period, directional south swell won’t do much north of the border - we’ll probably see a foot or two of low quality surf at most beaches, and perhaps a few bigger waves at semi-exposed points, but those locations seeing the bulk size (south swell magnets) will be all but blown out. So, get your surfing done in the next few days in this part of the world.

This weekend (July 4 - 5)

The weekend looks very good for Northern NSW, and a little ho-hum for SE Qld.

Northern NSW first: Friday’s gusty southerly change will be linked to a much broader parent system that’s modelled to stretch all the way from the ice shelf up into the lower Tasman Sea later this week. This means that even as the front clears to the east over the weekend, and Friday’s short range energy eases in size, we’ll see a smaller but better quality S’ly groundswell fill in behind it. 

At this stage it’s expected to provide good waves both days, anywhere between 3ft and possibly up to 5ft at exposed south facing beaches south of Byron Bay, pulsing in and around this range, with occasional lully periods. The surf will be smaller at remaining locations, and conditions should be pretty good with light variable winds. 

SE Qld won’t completely dip out in the surf department but surf size will be very, very small owing to the acute southerly swell direction. We’re likely to see extremely inconsistent 1-2ft waves across most Gold/Sunshine Coast beaches with south swell magnets bigger in the 2-3ft+ range. So, nothing spectacular but there’ll be waves at open beaches if you’re keen.

Next week (July 6 onwards)

A new long period southerly groundswell is expected push across the Northern NSW coast on Monday, originating from yet another deep Southern Ocean low tracking south of Tasmania over the weekend. In similarity to what’s expected over the coming days, we’re looking at light winds and anywhere between 3ft and occasionally 5ft of strong swell at most south facing beaches. This swell will then ease into Tuesday.

Beyond this, further frontal activity is expected to develop across the Southern Tasman Sea but the size and scope is as yet unclear. Nevertheless we’ve certainly got the south swell machine cranked into fifth gear, so you should be able to get into a good repetitive pattern at locations that enjoy this swell direction. 

It’s worth noting that the models have some tropical developments up around the Solomon Islands over the coming days but at this stage I don’t feel that there’s much, if any swell potential from this neck of the woods. If anything it’ll probably just assist in anchoring a ridge across the Coral Sea for the foreseeable future, which may maintain a small degree of minor trade swell across SE Qld - but nothing to write home about.

See you Wednesday!