South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 22nd June)

Best Days: Tues: easing S'ly swell with mainly light winds. Fri: small E'ly swell, but with moderate to fresh S'ly winds. Sat/Sun: small combo of swells with little waves across the semi-exposed points. 

Recap: Plenty of waves over the weekend although local winds made conditions tricky at exposed spots in Far Northern NSW and SE Qld, with the semi-exposed points offering small clean peelers. The Mid North Coast saw slightly better winds although southerly flow developed each afternoon. Today we’ve seen much lighter winds and a small southerly swell build across exposed beaches in Northern NSW, but only tiny residual energy across SE Qld.

This week (June 23 - 26)

A small south swell currently pushing up along the NSW coast will be the only source of new energy for the short term forecast period. It’s expected to reach a peak overnight, before easing from Tuesday morning onwards so you’ll want to make the most of it. 

South facing beaches in Northern NSW should see very inconsistent 3ft+ sets, and conditions are looking pretty good in most areas with light variable winds on the whole (light to moderate SE winds may develop north of the border in the afternoon). However, locations not open to the south will be much smaller, and this includes SE Qld which really won’t see much energy from this swell source at all. So, keep your expectations low unless you’ve got a particularly reliable south swell magnet up your sleeve.

With easing S’ly swells expected for Tuesday onwards, we’re looking at a couple of small (Wednesday) then really small (Thursday) days ahead, albeit with mainly light variable winds.

A broad high ridging through the Coral Sea unfortunately doesn’t extend far enough south to be of any great benefit to the Southern Qld coast, although this is certainly not unexpected at this time of year. A large Tasman high is otherwise steering strong Southern Ocean fronts towards Antarctica, away from our southern swell window.

On Thursday, a weak trough pushing off the Southern NSW coast will push a moderate to fresh southerly flow about Northern NSW and SE Qld into Friday, however its not expected to be a major swell generator. If anything, it’ll mainly disrupt surface conditions across open beaches. 

And unfortunately, the easterly groundswell mentioned in last Friday’s notes for this coming Friday has also been almost completely wiped off the charts. The responsible low pressure system is still expected to form (with considerable strength too), except the models now have it developing further SE than initially though (see chart below), which is now tucked inside the swell shadow of New Zealand’s North Island. 

However, during the early stages of the low’s development - tonight and tomorrow - we’ll see a strong SE fetch occupy the waters between New Zealand and New Caledonia. Although poorly aimed for our region, we will see some sideband E/SE swell filter back into the East Coast, probably on Friday morning. Due to the fetch alignment, we’ll see the biggest waves form this source across the Sunshine Coast (3ft+), with smaller surf as you track to the south (so, 2-3ft from the Gold Coast to about Ballina, then 2ft from Yamba south to Port Macquarie). 

But with the aforementioned, unrelated southerly flow developing across the coast, the only surfable locations will be the semi-exposed points. And with this E/SE swell being quite inconsistent (due to the distant source, and the off-axis alignment), you’ll have to expect that surf conditions won’t be exactly conducive to a high wave count. I'm certainly not expecting anything amazing in the surf department on Friday. 

So, that’s the week in a nutshell. Let’s see how Wednesday’s model runs evolve with Friday’s wind change to see if there are any opportunities for an open beach or three. 

This weekend (June 27 - 28)

It’s not looking like a great weekend of waves.

A developing ridge through the Coral Sea will maintain fresh and gusty SE winds across the Southern Queensland coast on Saturday - possibly with a small addition of short range windswell - and we’ll see easing surf size from Friday’s E’ly swell. At this stage most of Northern NSW is expected to be under the influence of the ridge so winds will more likely be moderate to fresh S/SE (maybe an early SW’er if we’re lucky).

Sunday is looking at smaller surf from all sources, however south facing beaches in Northern NSW should see a small new S’ly groundswell with very inconsistent 2ft+ sets at south facing beaches. Winds should be a little lighter but still of the same regime as per Saturday. So, nothing great but there’ll be options if you set the bar low enough.

Next week (June 29 onwards)

A firm ridge through the Coral Sea may supply a small trade swell for SE Qld through the first half of next week, but at this stage no major size is expected.

Otherwise, we’re looking at a steady stream of vigorous, powerful frontal systems below the southern Tasman Sea from the weekend onwards (all related to the same progression of weather systems delivering the big WA/SA swells later this week) and they’re going to provide as series of strong, long period, albeit small to moderately sized southerly groundswells for exposed south facing beaches in Northern NSW next week.

The first front is due to pass south of Tasmania late Saturday, and should provide a new south swell sometime around Monday around 3-4ft at exposed south facing beaches, with smaller surf elsewhere (and tiny waves in SE Qld). Secondary fronts trailing behind should maintain a similar level of southerly energy through Tuesday and Wednesday, although the size and timing of each pulse is still a long way away from having any confidence in. Let’s take a closer look on Wednesday.