South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 19th June)

Best Days: Sat: decent S/SE swell in Northern NSW (only small in SE Qld) with possibly a window of good conditions early. May see a brief pulse after lunch in Far Northern NSW and SE Qld. Sun: combo of easing S/SE swell and steady S'ly groundswell (in Northern NSW) with mainly light winds south of Ballina (should see a brief early window north of here). Mon: fun S'ly groundswell in Northern NSW with good winds, smaller Tues. Wed: Fun new E/SE swell across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW. Thurs: Building E'ly swell, strong Friday.

Recap: Lots of fun peaky NE swell  in most regions through Thursday (2-3ft) and today (2ft+) with clean conditions under offshore breezes. A new S’ly swell has begun to build across the Mid North Coast this afternoon - as per data from Crowdy Head - however at the time of writing, didn’t seem to have reached the Far North Coast (as per surfcam observations from Byron Bay, and the Byron buoy). Interestingly, despite a low pressure system developing of the Mid North Coast, winds remained generally favourable for much of the day - the nearest coastal AWS to the region was the Coffs Harbour Airport, which saw light W/SW winds until lunchtime, then moderate W/SW thru’ SW winds that briefly trended S’ly for an hour before returning to a light W/SW around 4pm. Looks like this small low has had minimal impact on the coast thus far, and probably won’t be heard of again (re: local winds, anyway.. but swell? Well, keep on reading...).

This weekend (June 20 - 21)

Although computer models have the North Coast low being whisked off to the E/NE on Saturday, a ridging high pressure system south of Adelaide will drive moderate to fresh southerly winds across much of the region during the day. That being said, we should see early W/SW winds in many areas - the synoptic flow isn’t very strong right now so land effects should kick in for a few hours around dawn at least.

Surf wise, the fun small E/NE swell of the last few days will be almost completely gone but in its wake we’re looking at a building S/SE swell on Saturday from a low pressure system parked off New Zealand’s South Island on Thursday (the is the same swell encroaching the Mid North Coast today). South facing beaches in Northern NSW should see 4-5ft sets from this source, with smaller waves elsewhere due to the swell direction, and it’ll be much, much smaller across SE Qld with inconsistent 2ft waves at most locations, and bigger surf at south swell magnets.

So, get in early on Saturday for the best waves and keep in mind that developing southerlies will eventually ruin conditions at most exposed breaks.

And as a side note, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a brief pulse in during Saturday afternoon north of about Yamba or Ballina, originating from a temporary intensification of the departing low overnight tonight - if you look at the high res models (particularly ACCESS), you’ll see the low kinda ‘slingshot’ off-axis to the coast in the Central/Northern Tasman Sea - not a great development but worthy of further investigation. This should result in a brief period of larger waves which are likely to fill in after lunch - not much bigger than the pre-existing S/SE swell but we may see a minor surge through the afternoon. Well worth keeping an eye out for anyway.

On Sunday, wave heights will slowly trend down from Saturday’s sources, however a new S’ly groundswell will also fill in across south facing beaches in Northern NSW, originating from a low tracking south of Tasmania on Thursday. This swell will only favour exposed spots in Northern NSW and very little energy will make its way north of the border. 

In any case, this combo of swells should still see 3-4ft sets early morning across south facing beaches in Northern NSW (smaller elsewhere) with peaky 1-2ft waves across much of SE Qld (with bigger waves at south swell magnets).

Sunday’s conditions are looking pretty good south of Ballina under a mainly light and variable airstream, but north of here a building ridge through the Coral Sea will strengthen S/SE winds about the coast so - apart form a brief period of early SW winds - we’re looking at average conditions on the beaches with the semi-exposed points likely to offer smaller but cleaner waves. 

Next week (June 22 onwards)

We’ve got lots of swell potential on the cards for next week.

First up, another S’ly swell will arrive across Northern NSW’s south facing beaches on Monday, originating from a deep low tracking south of Tasmania on Saturday. This should provide 3ft+ sets at exposed spots but it’ll be tiny elsewhere due to the swell direction. Don't expect much, if any of this swell to make its way north of the border.

Slowly easing swell is then expected through Tuesday and Wednesday, and conditions should be mainly clean in most areas each day with light variable winds - perhaps a lingering S/SE flow across SE Qld on Monday and a possible N’ly flow across the Mid North Coast on Wednesday.

Of much more importance is the future developments of the current low off the North Coast. It’s expected to track eastward and dissipate over the weekend, before regenerating new Norfolk Island on Monday. In doing so, a strengthening SE fetch aimed at points mainly north of our region should kick up a new E/SE swell for Wednesday, with the biggest waves on the Sunshine Coast (3ft+) and smaller surf with increasing southerly latitude (I doubt we’ll see much influence south of about Yamba).

Of even more interest is a second, more significant feature developing within a broad, linked tropical depression north of New Zealand at the same time that's modeled to intensify rapidly. This is forecast to generate easterly gales through Tuesday and Wednesday, and we’ll see a strong E’ly groundswell arrive through several phases - initially a slightly bigger swell for Thursday off the head of the fetch (3ft+ in most regions by the afternoon, bigger in SE Qld near 3-4ft+), before long period E’ly energy arrives around Friday with strong 4-5ft sets at most coasts, and a few bigger bombs possible north of Byron Bay.

Now, there are a few caveats with this long range forecast, as the models have been moving around a little over the last few days, some runs of which had the low positioned well and truly within the swell shadow of New Zealand’s North Island. However we now seem to be developing more convergence between successive models runs so it’ll be interesting to see how Monday’s data pans out - right now we could have some very fun strong waves to finish next week. See you Monday!