South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 3rd June)

Best Days: Tues/Wed: Plenty of waves, best at potected spots in Northern NSW (only small in SE Qld). Thurs: excellent, strong S/SE swell in Northern NSW with great winds. Smaller but still very good in SE Qld. Fri/Sat/Sun: really fun, pulsing S/SE swell in Northern NSW with generally good winds.

Recap: Small easing S/SE swell all weekend with very small conditions north of the border. A strong new S’ly swell has started to build across southern regions later today as a precursor to an extended period of south swell.

This week (June 2 - 5)

South swell will be the dominant theme for the week.

We’ve got a broad low pressure system developing in the central Tasman Sea, and a large high pressure system over South Australia is strengthening a long southerly fetch across the western flank of the Tasman low. By tonight, the low is expected to be located off the West Coast of New Zealand with the southerly fetch spanning almost two thirds of the Tasman Sea.

Initially, most of the surf we’ll see through Tuesday will be mid-range energy generated by a stationary southerly flow in our near swell window. However, the fetch isn’t very well positioned for SE Qld so we’re not going to see much size here at first, away from south swell magnets. Slow, inconsistent waves in the 2ft at semi-exposed points will be the only option mainly due to a freshening SE tending S’ly airstream. 

In Northern NSW, these winds will create problems at beaches picking up the bulk of the swell (5-6ft sets). As such you’ll need to head towards more sheltered locations for smaller but cleaner conditions. Similar surf is expected through Wednesday with a slow easing trend throughout the day.

While this is occurring, a secondary centre of low pressure is expected to have developed (tonight) just north-west of New Zealand’s South Island, before wrapping into the main circulation centre, tightening the pressure gradient to the west and forming a band of 40-50kt S’ly winds at about Tasmanian latitudes (although in the eastern Tasman Sea) that are modelled to slingshot clockwise around the low - see chart below. Because this fetch will be working on an already active sea state, we should see a greater size potential from this source and it'll have a lot of strength too. 

Right now the leading edge is due to arrive very late Wednesday in southern regions, arriving overnight Wednesday in the north and then peaking in size early Thursday. South facing beaches in Northern NSW should see strong 6ft+ waves from this event, and there’ll be a broader coverage of size across remaining beaches due to the slightly more east component in the swell direction (S/SE). I wouldn’t be surprised to see even bigger 8ft+ sets at some of the offshore bombies that harness longer wavelengths really well, and conditions should be generally quite clean with mainly light variable winds. 

This particular pulse of swell should be more favourable for SE Qld although it’ll still be much smaller compared to locations south of Byron Bay. Semi-exposed points of the Gold and Sunshine Coast should see good 2-3ft+ surf and south facing beaches will be considerably bigger.

From here on, we’re looking at only a gradual drop in size through Friday as the southerly fetch extending north from the SW tip of New Zealand’s South Island is expected to remain active during the middle of the week. Local winds should remain light all day with clean conditions, and exposed south facing beaches in Northern NSW are likely to see anywhere between 3ft and maybe 5ft of inconsistent but quality S/SE swell. Expect smaller waves at remaining beaches, and north of the border, with clean conditions under a light variable breeze.

This weekend (June 6 - 7)

We’ve got a really fun (long) weekend of waves ahead for some regions, mainly south of the border.

Initially we’re looking at plenty of residual S/SE swell from the fetch off the SW tip of New Zealand’s South Island on Saturday morning, but in addition to this a series of polar front tracking N/NE through the Southern Ocean from Wednesday thru’ Friday - directly below New Zealand - will maintain similar energy through the rest of the weekend. It won’t be sizeable, but should ensure 3-4ft of S/SE swell at south facing beaches in Northern NSW.

SE Qld won’t see much size from this source - there’ll still be plenty of energy, however it’ll just be smaller and less consistent, and a building ridge across the Coral Sea will freshen S/SW tending S’ly then S/SE winds about most regions. Initially this ridge may be positioned just too far north to generate any useful trade swell however I’ll revise this in Wednesday’s notes (early next week looks like a better bet form this source).

Local winds south of about Ballina look pretty good for the weekend, mainly light and variable perhaps with a southerly tendency towards the northern regions in conjunction with the developing ridge. So overall, it’s shaping up to be a tidy weekend of exposed beach breaks, especially if you can make your way as far south as possible. 

Next week (June 8 onwards)

No major patterns on the boil for next week other than a seasonal frontal progression across the south-eastern states that are likely to maintain a healthy cycle of south swells for the foreseeable future. More on this in Wednesday’s update.