South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 27th May)

Best Days: Thurs: fun clean easing swell in Northern NSW and at super south swell magnets in SE Qld. Fri: interesting SE swell but best suited for the Mid North Coast (may be only small north from about Yamba). 

Recap: Pumping S/SE swell across Northern NSW over the last two days with offshore winds and excellent surf. North of Byron Bay, wave heights have been much smaller, significantly so across most Gold/Sunshine Coast beaches, however a couple of south swell magnets in these regions have pulled in some decent waves. 

This week (May 28 - 29)

Our recent run of excellent late-autumn surf will continue through the next few days, albeit with a slow easing trend.

The source of this swell is a series of deep surface low pressure systems south and south-east of New Zealand, related to a slow moving Long Wave Trough over the region. Prolonged gale to storm force S’ly winds about the SW flank of the system are the primary source, however they did push out of the swell window late Monday and into Tuesday which means we’ll see a slow decline into Thursday.

That being said, conditions will remain excellent as a slow moving high in the Tasman Sea creates light variable winds across the region. Most south facing beaches across Northern NSW should see inconsistent 3ft+ sets on Thursday, with smaller waves elsewhere. North of Byron Bay (and especially so north of the border) wave heights will remain very small away from south swell magnets.

On Friday, we’re still on track for a unique, and probably very good quality SE groundswell for the Mid North Coast, generated by a merging low pressure centre within the broader system SE of New Zealand, on Monday and Tuesday. Storm force S/SE winds feeding into the parent low seem to have been located just far south enough for the fetch to be placed within the Mid North Coast’s swell window - however it’s likely that wave heights will taper off with increasing northerly latitude. So, we should still see swell from this source north from about Yamba but it’ll probably be smaller in size. 

Confidence isn’t especially high as to what will eventuate on Friday but I’ll holding firm with my forecast for 2-3ft+ sets at exposed beaches south of Coffs Harbour throughout the day, with smaller waves to the north (and especially so in SE Qld). Due to the large travel distance, there will be very long breaks between the bigger waves but conditions should be excellent across the open beach breaks with light variable winds (trending NW if anything). 

As for timing, the leading edge should be into southern regions overnight but there’s likely to be a delay on this swell in the Far North. So keep your expectations low from this source from Yamba to the Sunny Coast.

Anyway, we rarely see swells originate from this part of the world so it’ll be interesting to see what eventuates. 

This weekend (May 30 - Jun 1)

Friday’s SE swell - if it pushes through (c’mon! let’s show some positivity!) - will be on the way down through Saturday so apart from some early sets across the Mid North Coast (2ft+?), we’re looking at slowly easing swells with moderate offshore winds. As per the previous size estimation expect smaller waves north of about Coffs or Yamba.

A weakening front pushing east of Bass Strait on Friday is unlikely to generate any major energy for the East Coast, even exposed south facing beaches. Another small southerly swell is then expected to push up through the Tasman later Sunday but again I don’t think we’ll see much from it, due to the primary fetch (southwest of Tasmania on Thursday) being poorly aligned for our region. So, expect very small surf for most of the weekend, excluding a few stray leftover waves on Saturday morning - that's your best time frame to aim towards.

Nevertheless conditions look pretty good over the weekend with light variable winds persisting, so hopefully there’ll be a few small peelers lingering at swell magnets. 

Next week (June 2 onwards)

The deepening trough north of New Zealand expected from Friday onwards now doesn’t look quite as good for us next week - it’s been marginally weakened, and delayed in its development, but worse - pushed slighty SE in direction, inside the swell shadow of New Zealand’s North Island. 

We may still see a very small E’ly swell from it early/mid next week, ahead of a marginally bigger push later Thursday and Friday (mainly across SE Qld) but right now I wouldn’t get your hopes up for anything worthwhile. 

Otherwise, the models have changed their long term outlook since Monday’s notes, pushing the Long Wave Trough across Tasmanian longitudes around Sunday, driving strong S/SW winds through the southern Tasman Sea and kicking up a new south swell that’ll build during Monday and peak into Tuesday. This looks good for south facing beaches (in Northern NSW) to see set waves in the 5-6ft range (smaller elsewhere) but with mainly fresh and gusty SW tending S/SW winds. 

The good news beyond this is that further strong fronts migrating around the LWT during this time will maintain strong southerly swell through the second half of the week, possibly a little bigger than what we’re expecting Monday and Tuesday. In any case this region will certainly be the focus of our attention next week. 

But there’s always a flip side: SE Qld won’t pick up much size from the first series of south swells early next week, so things currently look a little grim north of Byron Bay for the first half of next week at least. However I’ll reevaluate this in more detail on Friday - hopefully the second phase of swell later in the week will line up a little better.