South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 25th May)

Best Days: Tues: strong S/SE swell building across the coast (small in SE Qld), with light winds. Wed: easing S/SE swell with light winds. Thurs: small and clean in Northern NSW. Fri: interesting SE swell but best suited for the Mid North Coast (may be only small north from about Yamba).

Recap: Lots of south swell over the weekend, with large waves in Northern NSW and considerably smaller surf across SE Qld. Smaller waves today but still plenty of lines across at exposed beaches.

This week (May 26 - 29)

We’ve got some great waves ahead, especially if you live in Northern NSW. A new S/SE groundswell is marching up the coast and should be in the water across the Mid North Coast early Tuesday morning, reaching the Far North Coast and SE Qld coasts after lunch (prior to then, we’ll see similar residual S/SE swell as per today).

The weather system responsible for this new S/SE swell performed impressively over the weekend, recording S’ly winds of 50-60kts immediately south of New Zealand (see right). Although this is not very well aligned within our swell window, we will still see a considerable pulse of sideband energy from it throughout Tuesday. 

South facing beaches in Northern NSW will see the biggest waves - somewhere in the 4-5ft+ range at times - and conditions should be clean with mainly light variable winds. Expect smaller surf at locations not open to the south, however bigger waves (6-8ft sets) are likely at some of the more reliable south swell magnets due to the large swell periods (likely to be in the 17-18 second range). To be honest I wouldn't be surprised if we saw slightly bigger surf than this - mainly due to the sheer strength and coverage of the core fetch - but it's a difficult weather system to have confidence in so I'm going to peg back my expectations. 

In SE Qld, wave heights will taper off as the swell refracts back into the coast but we’re still looking at some good waves in general. Most Gold Coast/Sunshine Coast beaches should see an afternoon peak into the 2-3ft range, with semi-exposed points likely to see 3-4ft sets at times. The region's handful of south swell magnets should reach 4-5ft+ by the end of the day and similarly light winds are also expected here. It will however be smaller in the morning before the new swell arrives (keep an eye on the surfcams for signs of life).

Tuesday’s swell will then ease slowly through Wednesday with light variable winds maintaining excellent conditions just about everywhere. A further small drop is likely into Thursday, and conditions will remain excellent as a series of fronts approaching from the west steer local winds around to the NW in Northern NSW, with variable winds in SE Qld. Most open (south facing) beaches should still see 2-3ft sets though, with smaller waves at remaining beaches and also across SE Qld.

Friday has some really interesting possibilities for the southern regions, originating from a very rare part of our swell window. The intense low pressure system now south-east of New Zealand that’s responsible for Tuesday’s S/SE swell is expected to merge with another deep low pressure centre overnight tonight, just to the east (see chart below). Storm force E/SE tending SE then S’ly winds feeding into this system are expected to briefly show strength in our remote SE swell window - right on the other side of New Zealand - and I think we’ll see a pulse of long range SE groundswell arrive on Friday morning from this source. 

However, due to the swell shadow offered by New Zealand’s South Island, wave heights are likely to become smaller with increasing northerly latitude - essentially the reverse of what we experience from east swells (along the Northern NSW coast) when tropical depressions slip south into the swell shadow of New Zealand’s North Island.

As such, we’ll probably see a good pulse of SE swell across the Mid North Coast but I am doubtful that there’ll be as much size on offer north of about Yamba (give or take). For now let’s aim for clean 2-3ft+ surf at open beaches across the Mid North, with smaller surf to the north.  Our remaining swell windows will be inactive through the second half of the week so this is our only source of energy for Friday. I’ll reevaluate on Wednesday in more detail.

This weekend (May 30 - Jun 1)

Nothing amazing is expected for the weekend at this stage. The Southern Ocean storm track looks like it’ll be mainly aimed away from our swell window; we have a few small pulses of south swell on the cards but no real size is expected. 

Friday’s SE groundswell should still be with us early Saturday morning but it’ll be trending quickly downwards during the day - I don't think there’ll be much more than a very inconsistent 2-3ft at exposed beaches across the Mid North Coast early on, with smaller waves north of here and into SE Qld.

Otherwise, we’re not expecting any other new swell for SE Qld for the rest of thew weekend and Northern NSW will see just some small S’ly energy from poorly aligned frontal systems crossing the Tasmanian region later this week. Hopefully the models will upgrade the weekend outlook into the coming days.

Next week (June 2 onwards)

A deepening trough north of New Zealand from Friday onwards looks set to generate a small E’ly swell for us early next week. No major size is expected but we should see a few small waves at open beaches in the 2ft+ range from Monday afternoon through until about Wednesday or thereabouts.

Elsewhere, with the Long Wave Trough expected to remain slow moving to the west of Tasmania for most of the forecast period, it may not be until the middle of next week where it clears into the Tasman Sea’s swell window and we can anticipate a stronger renewal of southerly swell for the second half of the week. Until then, our primary south swell window looks like it’ll remain a little inactive. More on this in Wednesday’s update.