South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 22nd May)

Best Days: Sat/Sun: plenty of surf for the points in SE Qld. Mon/TuesAM: small S'ly swell and light winds. TuesPM/Wed: small to moderate S/SE groundswell with generally favourable winds.  

Recap: No great surprises over the last two days with generally tiny conditions on offer at most beaches. A strong new south swell is now pushing into the Lower Mid North Coast and should be quite sizeable by the end of the day.

This weekend (May 23-24)

So, the south swell pushing up the Southern NSW coast right now has greatly exceeded expectations across the Sydney and Hunter region (almost double what was forecast). There’s an incredible amount of wind with it - upwards of 40-50kts at many coastal locations - which is the primary reason for the size upgrade. Interestingly, the models didn’t pick the strength of these winds very well however they seem to have resolved things in the latest run (after the fact!) and this has significantly upgraded  computer estimated wave heights across Northern NSW and SE Qld for the weekend.

That being said, I still think they’re overcalling surf size, especially north of the border. The fetch length isn’t particularly long and by Saturday morning, the bulk of the swell generating system will be exiting our swell window. In fact by Saturday lunchtime we’ll probably be left with a trailing southerly fetch of only fresh proportions across the Tasman Sea. So the biggest waves in Northern NSW and SE Qld (early Saturday) will consist mainly of a surge component associated with the change itself (which usually results in a prominent ‘J’ curve on the buoy data; see MHL’s Sydney buoy today for a good example).

In any case, Saturday will be a write off across most of Northern NSW thanks to strong to gale force southerly winds. Exposed south facing beaches should see set waves in the 8ft+ range early morning, but it’ll ease rapidly during the day. I suspect the swell peak will probably occur overnight at locations south of Yamba, so expect smaller surf here (and an earlier easing trend). Protected southern corners and points will be your best options on Saturday but keep in mind that there’ll be a significant sweep at many spots too.

In SE Qld, we’re looking at a similar early peak in size on Saturday, and wave heights have been upgraded since Wednesday’s outlook. However, there will be a large range in wave heights between exposed south swell magnets (which will be a write-off anyway under this wind regime, say 6ft+), semi-exposed points such as Snapper (4-5ft) and most Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast beaches (3-4ft). The more protected points like Noosa will be very small due to the swell direction. Fresh and gusty S/SW tending S/SE winds will confine the best waves to sheltered locations.

On Sunday, the overall trend will be steadily downwards and although winds will throttle back (especially across southern regions), we’re looking at moderate to fresh SE winds across SE Qld as a ridge builds through the Coral Sea. This will therefore continue to favour the semi-exposed Qld points for waves (2-3ft), with much bigger surf south of Byron Bay but with tricky winds between there and about Coffs Harbour - mainly moderate SE, possibly light SW for a brief period early (and a lot of leftover lump on the surface from Saturday's winds).

Lighter, more variable winds are expected across the Lower Mid North Coast on Sunday with much better surface conditions.

Next week (May 25 onwards)

Our southern swell window will remain the key focus area for the first half of next week. A series of poorly-aligned but very active fronts over the weekend will generate a small to moderate south swell for Monday and Tuesday across Northern NSW, with south facing beaches likely to see inconsistent 2-3ft waves. Light variable winds and sea breezes are expected in most areas but a light SW tending moderate SE flow is expected throughout SE Qld, where we’ll also see a small combination of south swell and trade swell (inconsistent 2ft most open beaches, a few stray 3ft sets at south swell magnets). 

After lunch on Tuesday afternoon, a much stronger pulse of S/SE groundswell is expected to arrive across the Lower Mid North Coast, generated by an intense polar low developing well south of New Zealand late Saturday, that’s modeled to slingshot its way into the broader frontal stream tracking north-east. 

I mentioned this fetch in Monday’s notes, but the models downgraded it on Wednesday so I correspondingly pulled back forecast wave heights. However they’ve since strengthen the low considerably, with core winds expected to reach 60kts (!). As this fetch will be working on a very active sea state, it should have no trouble generating an excellent pulse of quality groundswell.

This energy is expected to be in the water very late on Tuesday (not quite sure on the timing at this stage) and should provide occasional 3-5ft sets at south facing beaches - but the Far North Coast and SE Qld region may not see this swell until early Wednesday (surf size would be a couple of feet smaller in SE Qld, due to the swell direction). Conditions are looking really good with light variable winds both days but I’ll have to firm up the timing on this swell in Monday’s updated notes. 

Otherwise, the long term outlook has easing swells for the second half of the week thanks to a large high pressure system in the Tasman Sea, which is expected to steer weather systems away from our southern swell window. There is some suggestion that we’ll see a broad tropical depression kick up to the SE of Fiji during the middle of next week, that may lead to a small E’ly swell next weekend - but that’s still quite some time away.

Until then, have a great weekend!