South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 20th May)

Best Days: Sat/Sun: small waves across semi-exposed points in SE Qld. Sun: improving surf across the Mid North Coast with lighter winds. Mon/Tues: small trade swell in SE Qld, small S'ly swell in Northern NSW. Wed: small new SE groundswell in Northern NSW.

Recap: Small trade swell in SE Qld, with small S’ly swell across Northern NSW. Mainly light winds. 

This week (May 21 - 22)

Not much on the cards for Thursday. The small trade swell that’s graced Southern Queensland for the last few days is on the way out so we’ll be struggling at most beaches with tiny residual swells. Early light NW winds will swing SW during the afternoon in conjunction with a passing trough.

South of Byron, there’s little new swell on the cards for Thursday either. Winds will swing more southerly in direction in the wake of the change, and it’ll arrive earlier than in SE Qld (pre-dawn across the Mid North Coast, mid-late morning across the North Coast). With very small surf on offer it’s really not worth too much attention.

Friday will remain tiny across SE Qld but there’s a glimmer of hope for Northern NSW, specifically the Lower Mid North Coast. A strong cold front is presently racing through the Southern Ocean and into the lower Tasman Sea, and this is generating a new S’ly groundswell that’s due to reach the Sydney/Hunter coast around lunchtime, and should hopefully nudge up into the Mid North Coast mid-late afternoon. 

Because the front has been sped up since Monday’s notes, the associated swell’s arrival time has also been pulled forward (model guidance has Tp around 17-18 seconds). However, despite the chance for a possible late increase in new S’ly swell - let’s ballpark south facing beaches in the 3-4ft range on dusk - winds are likely to be fresh and gusty S/SW as a low developing off the coast on Thursday intensifies through Friday, albeit with a steady eastward track. As such, those beaches picking up any new south swell will probably be quite wind affected, and protected locations will be very small.

So, keep your expectations low in this next of the woods but there’s always a chance that winds remain a little more favourable and the swell arrives a little earlier than expected. I’ll update in the comments below if the situation looks better than is currently modelled.

This weekend (May 23-24)

Saturday looks solid and windy although the models seem to be overcooking the size of the resulting swell from this Tasman Low. The fetch length really isn’t enough to warrant much more than about 4-5ft+ of low quality short range energy across exposed Northern NSW beaches, and it’ll be much smaller elsewhere due to the low period and southerly direction (Friday’s long period south swell will be in the water too, albeit smaller in size). Fresh to strong S’ly winds seal the deal on Saturday being a write-off at most locations unless you’re interested in small clean protected southern corners.

However SE Qld should do OK from this pattern. Most Gold Coast beaches will be a write-off but semi-exposed points (such as Snapper) should see sets in the 2-3ft+ range on Saturday and they’ll be clean down the line under this wind regime. The Sunny Coast doesn’t have as many options under this swell/wind combo so keep your expectations on the lower side, north of Brisbane.

As for Sunday, the overall trend is for a little less size, and a little less wind - but it’ll veer more to the SE across Southern Queensland and Far Northern NSW. So, semi-exposed points will be your only rideable option in this next of the woods. Winds will be lighter across the remainder roof the North Coast and we should see early pockets of SW winds in some areas, but there’s still likely to be some lumpiness at exposed beaches. Overall, Sunday will probably be the pick of the weekend south of Yamba.

Next week (May 25 onwards)

A rebuilding ridge across the Coral Sea early next week should maintain a small trade swell to SE Qld throughout the first half of the week. This will replace the easing S/SE swell from the weekend.

Northern NSW will continue to pick up small residual S’ly groundswell (at exposed beaches) through the first half of next week, originating from a steady stream of cold fronts through the Southern Ocean.

Then on Wednesday, a new SE groundswell is expected to make landfall, originating from a polar low SE of New Zealand - one of our funky swell windows - that’s expected to push up into the broader frontal streamflow later Saturday and into Sunday. Despite the lengthy travel time, we should see inconsistent 2-3ft sets from this source at exposed beaches in Northern NSW and with light winds on hand there should be some great waves at most open coasts. However I am doubtful of this swell making much of an impact north of Byron Bay. More on this in Friday’s update.