South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 15th May)

Best Days: Sat: strong south swell but local winds will confine the best surf to protected locations. Sun: easing swells and slowly abating winds. Mon/Tues/Wed: combo of small easing S'ly swells (and a small new long period south swell) in Northern NSW, and a small trade swell in SE Qld, all with generally light winds. Fri: chance for a small NE windswell with offshore winds. 

Recap: Wow, so how was Thursday? Dawn revealed tiny lines in SE Qld but the new south swell was already building rapidly across Northern NSW, and within a few hours we’d already seen a major increase in size across south facing beaches (non-exposed spots on the Gold Coast and most of the Sunny Coast dipped out on any significant increase though). However despite some very large waves reported around the middle of the day (easy 8ft+ sets in Northern NSW, even D’Bah looked to be 4-6ft), surf size eased throughout the afternoon and overnight, bottoming out in the early hours of this morning and tiny waves on offer this morning in SE Qld. A second groundswell - expected to be the larger of the two - has started to slowly rebuild across Northern NSW today (having delivered 8ft sets in Sydney this morning, and 10ft in Newcastle) but only the Mid North Coast is seeing any major size right now - it's well behind schedule. That being said, the ASCAT readings from the Central Tasman last night were very good so I feel that this swell has just been delayed more than expected. So we should continue to see surf size building across the North Coast and into SE Qld for tomorrow.

This weekend (May 16 - 17)

The new south swell moving up the coast is already showing 8ft+ sets at Coffs Harbour (via our surfcam) and we should continue to see an upwards trend into the evening ahead of an overnight peak in size.

However, I’m a little concerned that the swell hasn’t performed as well as originally modelled, so I’m going to pull back my size expectations for SE Qld as the refractive processes are likely to be more greatly exacerbated by an underperforming swell event, than in Northern NSW.

Nevertheless, the overarching theme remains in place for the weekend mainly due to no changes in the forecast wind regime. A large developing high pushing eastward across the eastern states will firm a ridge through the Coral Sea, which will maintain fresh SE winds across the Queensland coast. Early Saturday morning should see pockets of lighter S/SW winds (i.e. southern Gold Coast) but in general we’re looking at surface conditions best suited to the semi-exposed points. 

Wave heights should max out between 2ft and occasionally 3ft across most Gold Coast beaches, a little smaller across the Sunny Coast, but semi-exposed points such as Snapper should rake in a few bigger waves. South swell magnets will obviously be much bigger but they won’t enjoy this wind. A steady easing trend is expected throughout the day, so aim for the morning for the most size.

South of the border, wave heights will be much bigger at south facing beaches (early 6-8ft sets) but fresh S/SW tending S/SE winds will focus the best waves to sheltered locations. Most open beaches should see 4-5ft surf, with 3ft waves at sheltered corners. However, the easing trend will kick in early so expect smaller surf throughout the day. Lighter winds are expected across the Mid North Coast but it’s hard to imagine conditions being suited to anywhere but a sheltered location.

Sunday will see a further easing trend from this south swell. Northern NSW’s exposed swell magnets may pull in a few 3-5ft sets early morning but it’ll be smaller into the afternoon. In SE Qld, the south swell will be smaller but we’ll also see a small short range SE swell off the Coral Sea ridge (nothing major, just two to maybe three feet of average swell at open beaches, smaller on the points). However with fresh SE winds on hand - again, pockets of lighter S/SW winds in a few locations early, such as Coolangatta - the semi-exposed points will certainly offer the best waves, albeit on the small side.

So there’ll be waves all weekend, but just keep your expectations low in the conditions department.

Next week (May 18 onwards)

The ridge across the Coral Sea looks like it’ll hang in until about Tuesday, so SE Qld should see a continuation of short range trade swell in the 2-3ft range (maybe a smidge more on the Sunny Coast) from Monday up until about Wednesday - but conditions will be a little ordinary at first, even with a weaker pressure gradient across the coast. We really need a stiff offshore to iron out the lumps and in its absence there’ll probably be some lumpiness on the surface. But overall it'll be fun for the beachies. 

Otherwise, an absence of weather activity in the Tasman Sea for the first half of next week means we’ll be relying on distant swell sources to keep the exposed beaches in Northern NSW humming. 

Monday should see residual energy leftover from the weekend, ahead of a couple of long period south swells that are due to reach Northern NSW on Tuesday - a small one in the morning, ahead of a slightly larger one across the Lower Mid North Coast in the afternoon (with longer periods than the first). However locations north of about Coffs may have to wait until Wednesday morning to take advantage of this small new south swell.

In any case it won’t be very big, just a couple of stray 2-3ft sets at exposed south swell magnets, and very little happening elsewhere. So for the most part, the first half of next week looks like fun small beach breaks across the North Coast with mainly light variable winds. 

The end of the week will see pre-frontal northerlies freshening across the NSW coast on Thursday, ahead of a gusty W’ly change early Friday morning. It’s still quite some time away but there’s a chance that we’ll see a brief window early Friday with clean peaky NE breach breaks across exposed beaches. I’ll firm this up in Monday’s notes. 

Otherwise, the long range charts have a new low developing off Southern NSW on Friday that’s expected to be a precursor to another series of strong fronts through the southern Tasman Sea - therefore it looks like strong southerly swells will be on the menu from next weekend onwards for quite a few days. More on this in next week’s notes.