South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 13th May)

Best Days: Thurs/Fri/Sat: very large S'ly swell in Northern NSW, smaller in SE Qld but great for most semi-exposed points under a S'ly wind. 

Recap: The south swell which graced our shores on Tuesday delivered some very impressive results across Northern NSW beaches. Exposed parts of the Mid North Coast pulled in 4-6ft sets, and conditions were clean with offshore winds. However, wave heights were smaller in the Far North (and very small in SE Qld) and size has eased rapidly into today. A small long range E’ly groundswell also provided inconsistent waves through Tuesday and more so through today across Far Northern NSW and SE Qld coasts. Set waves were only 2ft at best but the lines were very well defined, and more consistent that was expected from such a distant source.

This week (May 14- 15)

It’s all south swell for the next few days. We’ve got multiple lows and fronts pushing through the southern Tasman Sea right now (and into tomorrow), each of which will contribute varying degrees of southerly energy.

Rather than get bogged down with the particulars of each fetch, it’s probably best to look at the overall trend, which is up through Thursday and then peaking through Friday.

How big? Exposed south facing beaches in Northern NSW will see the most size (anywhere between 8ft and possibly 10ft at the height of the event on Friday) but these locations will be poor under a gusty SW tending S/SW wind. Otherwise, semi-exposed points and regular open beaches should see 6ft+ surf, with 3-4ft waves inside southern corners. Protected spots will be your best bet under these winds. Expect smaller surf through Thursday - especially early in the morning (and in the north), before things really kick into gear.

Across SE Qld, we’ll see the same swell trend but with much smaller wave heights. Thursday’s increasing size will take some time to show north of Byron Bay due to the initial S/SW fetch parallel to the NSW coast, and with winds from the south the points will offer the only rideable options. We should see 2ft surf at most Sunshine Coast/Gold Coast beaches through the afternoon (smaller early morning) but semi-exposed points such as Snapper Rocks are likely to be bigger in the 3ft+ range late afternoon, and the region’s handful of south swell magnets will have wind affected but stronger 4-6ft surf by close of business.

Friday really looks to be the day for SE Qld with a strong building swell all day that should reach 3ft across most locations into the afternoon, up to 3-5ft at semi-exposed points like the outer section at Snapper, and (a very bumpy) 6ft+ across south swell magnets. Gusty S’ly winds will confine the only rideable options to the points, however keep in mind that extremely sheltered locations (i.e. inner points of Noosa) will remain very small due to the southerly swell direction.

This weekend (May 16 - 17)

On Wednesday I mentioned a final pulse of south swell for Saturday, however it's been consolidated into Friday’s peak. That being said, we’re still looking at very big waves through Saturday morning across Northern NSW’s south facing beaches.

Fortunately, for the Mid North Coast we’ll see a rapid easing of local winds as a high pressure system moves in from the west. However a building ridge across the Coral Sea will freshen SE winds across SE Qld beaches and Far Northern NSW, which means the points will remain the only viable options (winds should be SW early morning in a few locations, such as the southern Gold Coast).

As for wave heights, exposed south facing beaches in Northern NSW may still see a few trailing 6-8ft sets early Saturday morning but size will fall away pretty steadily from there on. It’ll be much smaller at remaining beaches too.

In SE Qld, we’re probably looking at a similar size as per late Friday (i.e. early Saturday), around 2-3ft at most beaches, ~4ft at semi exposed points and 5-6ft at south swell magnets (although they’ll be affected by local winds). Expect a steadily easing trend during the day.

On Sunday, we’ll essential see similar conditions (light winds in the south, freshening SE winds in the north) and a rapidly easing S’ly swell. Nevertheless there should still be plenty of size at south facing beaches in Northern NSW. And SE Qld should see an additional short range SE trade swell in the mix too (from the ridge in the Coral Sea): nothing sizeable but maybe some 3ft sets.

Next week (May 18 onwards)

The ridge in the Coral Sea looks like it’ll weaken early next week so whatever trade swell we see develop over the weekend will slowly easing in size from Monday onwards. 

A tropical depression way out near Tahiti (again! same source region as per Tuesday's long period E'ly swell) looks set to deepen through the end of the week but again, I really think this system is located too far away to be of any great benefit to us. The synoptic charts looks great but NZ's East Coast will probably be the best benficiary of any swell from this weather system. I'll keep an eye on it though in Friday's update.

Otherwise, there are no major weather systems expected within the Tasman Sea next week, so our surf prospects - mainly for Northern NSW - will hinge around the migration of several polar lows through the Southern Ocean. Each system looks pretty good on the synoptic chart, however they will be positioned quite a fair distance from us (which will keep surf potential down) and I’m also a little worries about the overall storm track (more zonal than preferable, and a little too fast as well).

Nevertheless, this is where our attention will be focused on, beyond the weekend. Two small pulses of south swell are due sometime Monday and Tuesday, but Wednesday afternoon and Thursday are on track for a small but very long period S’ly swell (originating from the strongest of the polar lows) that could light up exposed beaches with some very fun waves. More on this in Friday’s update.