South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 11th May)

Best Days: Tues: building S'ly swell in Northern NSW (very small in SE Qld). Wed: small leftover S'ly swell in Northern NSW. Thurs/Fri/Sat: building series of very large S'ly swells, much smaller in SE Qld but 

Recap: I hope you’re all thoroughly exhausted after this week-long pumping east swell. I’m exhausted just reading about it. Anyway, Saturday and Sunday both maintained good 2-3ft surf out of the east at most locations, whilst a new long period south swell delivered great 3-5ft surf at exposed south swell magnets in Northern NSW on Saturday, before easing on Sunday. Winds were offshore all weekend so conditions were great. The east swell started to ease slowly Sunday and was only registering weak 1-2ft waves this morning in SE Qld, with smaller surf elsewhere (the south swell was also a shadow of its former self).

This week (May 12- 15)

For the most part we can forget about our eastern swell window this week. We will see some tiny long period energy arriving later Tuesday and through Wednesday, originating from a deep sub tropical low that formed well south of Tahiti mid-last week - it displayed an impressive 30-40kt fetch aimed our way but the sheer travel distance means we’re looking at very small, and extremely inconsistent surf at exposed beaches (1ft to maybe 1-2ft every twenty minutes).

So, back to our southern swell window - which (as I’ve been discussing for much of the past week) is about to become extremely busy. 

Right now there’s an impressive W/SW thru SW fetch of gales existing eastern Bass Strait, courtesy of a vigorous front that crossed the region overnight. Although it’s not aimed very well towards the NSW coast (in fact it’s mainly pointed away from us!), the sheer strength, width and sustained nature of this fetch means that we’ll see a decent level of sideband energy push into Southern NSW over the coming hours, reaching Northern NSW through Tuesday morning (there'll probably be a lag on this pulse north of Yamba to begin with).

This swell will only favour exposed south facing beaches - and, it’s worth pointing out that this is a very funky fetch that will deliver much more variable results than true south swells - however reliable swell magnets should see a brief flush of occasional 3-5ft sets through the afternoon. 

Otherwise expect persistently small conditions under a light to moderate W’ly breeze. Hard to have confidence on the likely hit rate but there’ll be some energy around. 

And in SE Qld, this swell probably won’t amount to much at all. A few exposed south swell magnets may pull in a couple of feet of inconsistent swell through the afternoon but the whole it’ll be tiny at most beaches. Winds should be light and variable for much of the day, so if you’ve got an inkling hit up your favourite south facing beaches.

This particular swell will then ease back considerably for Wednesday, in fact we’re probably looking at small residual swells at most beaches (our model has inconsistent 2-3ft surf at south facing beaches in Northern NSW but I think that’s probably a slight overcall). Winds should remain from the west so open beaches will continue to be your best bet.

While this is all happening, a much deeper, more powerful low will have crossed the Tasmanian region on Tuesday - probably the biggest weather system we’ve seen in this neck of the woods all year. However, it’s expected to initially display W’ly through W/NW winds across our south swell window. As such I’m not confident that we’ll see much energy from this particular part of the storm. It’s a real line-call (and a shame too, as winds are expected to be 50kts+ just north-east of Tasmania late Tuesday) but I really think that we need another ten degree counter-clockwise swing in the fetch alignment before we’d see any appreciable swell across the NSW coast.

From here on the forecast gets trickier, but much more exciting. A strong front pushing up the southern NSW coast on Wednesday afternoon will generate an average short range south swell for Thursday morning (3-5ft south facing beaches in Northern NSW, but wind affected; much smaller elsewhere). Again, not much size is expected in SE Qld from this source, away from the south swell magnets. 

Behind this, as the primary storm track shifts into the Tasman Sea on Wednesday, we’ll see a complex fetch of southerly winds develop across the entire south swell window. Several low pressure centres will each contribute strong energy from Thursday afternoon through Friday, and on the whole we’re looking at very large surf in the 6-8ft+ range (Northern NSW south facing beaches) at the height of the swell.

Due to the swell direction, we’ll see smaller waves at remaining beaches around 4-5ft through Friday, with 2-3ft surf inside protected southern corners. Fresh SW winds will tend S’ly during the days so you’ll have to hunt for somewhere sheltered.

Now ordinarily, SE Qld doesn’t like south swells very well unless they’re quite large - and this one ticks that box nicely. We should see plenty of waves building through Thursday afternoon and into Friday, around 2ft across most Gold/Sunshine Coast beaches but up to 4-5ft at exposed south facing locations. Semi-exposed outer points (such as Snapper Rocks) should sit about halfway between; somewhere around 3ft to almost 4ft at times but wave heights will become smaller down the line. 

Nevertheless there should be plenty of small fun waves throughout SE Qld as a minimum and winds will be more use friendly here too.

This weekend (May 16 - 17)

For my eyes, the best feature of this upcoming weather pattern is a polar low located at the bottom of the parent system (developing Wednesday) that’s expected to rocket up through our south swell window over the following days. This is expected to generate a large, long period  southerly swell that'll arrive overnight Friday, and should be in the water for Saturday morning at most beaches (maybe a slight delay in Far Northern NSW and SE Qld at dawn). 

At this stage, surf size will probably push slightly higher than what we’re expecting later this week, if the latest model guidance holds true.  South facing beaches should see easy 8ft+ waves on Saturday, with 4-6ft surf at most open beaches and 3ft waves inside southern corners. With a high ridging from the west, local winds should begin to moderate but overall we’re still looking at a southerly flow (early SW, tending S/SE during the day). So the points will certainly offer the best surf. 

In SE Qld, we should see a little more size from this swell than the Thurs/Fri event, so at this stage it’s shaping up to be in the 3ft range at most locations with 4-6ft surf at exposed south facing beaches (peaking into the afternoon). As per the previous description, semi-exposed outer points (such as Snapper Rocks) should sit about halfway between; somewhere around 4ft+.

For Sunday, expect slowly easing swells and moderate SE winds (lighter and more variable in the morning, especially in the south). I’ll fine tune the specifics on Wednesday. 

Next week (May 18 onwards)

Nothing major on the cards for next week at this stage, which is good as it’ll allow us to focus our attention towards the upcoming extended run of south swell. See you Wednesday for more fine tuning.