South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 27th March)

Best Days: Sun: fun south swell in Northern NSW with early light winds. Tues onwards: building trade swell for SE Qld and Far Northern NSW. 

Recap: Thursday threw a few decent curveballs. The E’ly swell came in a little smaller than expected in SE Qld (surprising, seeing that southern NSW performed as expected), however of greater dominance in Northern NSW was a brief pulse of quality 3-5ft SE swell which I inadvertently left out of Wednesday’s notes (see pic below from our Coffs surfcam).

This swell was generated by a small low that formed in the central Tasman Sea on Wednesday, and was discussed in that day’s forecast notes for the Sydney/Hunter/Illawarra region. However, it (as expected) didn’t end up being a new source of swell for southern NSW due to the way the low formed and tracked, and in my rush to get Wednesday’s notes out - as I was on the road interstate with only a short time available to write the notes - it completely skipped my mind to consider its potential for locations north of Seal Rocks. Sorry ‘bout that…

As for today, we’ve seen a smaller mix of easing SE swell and residual E’ly swell across Northern NSW (mainly in the south) with the small E’ly swell persisting about SE Qld. The S’ly change arrived at Byron Bay around dawn as expected, but it seems to have stalled near Cape Moreton - we saw northerly winds swing SE at 2pm but Maroochydore is still light E/NE. Moderate to fresh SW to SE winds are persisting about Northern NSW. 

This weekend (Mar 28 - 29)

It’s not a great weekend of waves ahead - especially SE Qld - but there will be surfable options if you’ve got access to a south facing beach between Byron Bay and Seal Rocks. 

With diminishing E’ly swell on Saturday, SE Qld will be relying on a small local SE windswell generated by the change currently pushing up the coast. Unfortunately, only south facing beaches will pick up any new energy, and they’ll be bumpy under a freshening S’ly tending SE airstream. 

Protected spots will be very small, just a foot or perhaps two if we’re lucky of inconsistent leftover E’ly swell. Both swells will fade into Sunday as will local winds. I really wouldn't get your hopes up for anything worthwhile across the Gold or Sunshine Coasts this weekend.

Across Northern NSW, we’ll see the small fading E’ly swell but more importantly, a new run of small S’ly swell.

Unfortunately, we’ve had another minor about-face with the model guidance since Wednesday’s slight upgrade (which followed on from Monday’s slight downgrade); weakening the secondary fetch around the low as it develops off the East Coast of Tasmania today. This means surf size will be a little smaller than estimated on Wednesday.

South facing beaches in Northern NSW are expected to build to a peak of around 3ft during Saturday, with slowly easing size through Sunday (maybe some inconsistent 2-3ft sets early, but easing from mid-morning onwards). Expect smaller waves at beaches not completely open to the south.

As for local winds - Saturday looks a little dicey as the afternoon peak will probably coincide with moderate sou’easters (following early sou’westers in some locations). Sunday morning looks to be the pick with light offshore winds through until lunchtime, ahead of an afternoon sea breeze. So aim for an early surf at your favourite south swell magnet as wave heights will be trending downwards during the day. 

Next week (Mar 30 onwards)

Next week looks pretty good for SE Qld, with a broad, strengthening trade flow from the southern Coral Sea into the South Pacific. This should build mid-range E’ly swells about most coasts (biggest in SE Qld, specifically the Sunshine Coast) from about Tuesday onwards with sets in the 3ft+ range at open beaches, and smaller surf at the semi-exposed points. Winds will remain SE for much of this time frame so the points will certainly be the pick. 

This trade flow is expected to persist until about Thursday when an approaching upper trough in the southern Tasman Sea will probably disrupt the setup, leading to a breakdown of the trades and a subsequent slow easing of surf size through Friday and Saturday. Long range model guidance is suggesting a renewal of trades into the weekend and next week, but that’s a long time away so let’s wait to see what happens.

South of Ballina, this trade swell will be much smaller but should still provide some useful small beach break fodder through the week. Conditions will be cleaner here under a weaker pressure gradient (just the usual light offshores/afternoon sea breeze combo).

Elsewhere, exposed south swell magnets in Northern NSW will pick up some small long period southerly energy around Wednesday and Thursday, originating form an active but otherwise unfavourably aligned storm track in the Southern Ocean. It’ll probably show up on the buoys (Tp 17-18+ seconds) but  don’t expect much more than a few stray 2ft sets at swell magnets. 

Otherwise, the models are suggesting a sharp upper trough will form a surface low in the central/southern Tasman Sea around Thursday or Friday of next week. Whilst the specifics on this event are not yet clear, all indications are suggesting a solid SE groundswell for southern NSW sometime around Friday or Saturday. Will this favour Northern NSW and SE Qld? It’s way too early to tell, but I’ll put it on the pinup board for consideration on Monday. 

Until then, have a great weekend.