Small and mixed for the weekend; new E'ly swell from Wednesday
South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 20th March)
Best Days: No great days due to small swells and tricky winds. Maybe a few pockets on the North Coast over the weekend, but nothing special. Wed onwards should start to see some small long range E'ly swell.
Recap: Small waves and mainly northerly winds. Uuuurrrggghh.
This weekend (Mar 21 - 22)
No major changes to the forecast issued on Wednesday. We’re looking at small waves through the entire weekend, with variable conditions across the region.
A southerly change is advancing along the southern NSW coast right now, and a ridge is expected to build in behind it into Saturday morning. However, it probably won’t penetrate much further north than about Coffs Harbour or Yamba. As such light winds are likely in Far Northern NSW and SE Qld on Saturday morning, with fresh SE winds to the south of the ridge.
Wave heights will remain small in SE Qld due to a lack of activity in our swell window over the last few days. Winds will generally be out of the NE - freshening a little into the afternoon - but periods of variable conditions are likely both mornings.
In Northern NSW we’ll see a short range SE swell fill into the coast, peaking late Saturday with 3ft sets at south facing beaches (mainly along the Mid North Coast, smaller north of Yamba). Unfortunately, those locations picking up Saturday afternoon’s increase will also be very choppy, and protected spots will be very small. The best options will probably be in Far Northern NSW where we’ll see the best (!) combo of wind and surf. But certainly don’t expect anything amazing.
Sunday looks generally uninspiring across the coast. We may see an afternoon pulse of small trade swell across SE Qld, courtesy of a temporary strengthening trade flow in the lower Coral Sea on Saturday. I doubt set waves will reach much more than 2ft but if we get lucky and local winds remain light - as they possibly could - there could be some fun beach breaks across exposed spots (maybe the odd bigger set on the Sunshine Coast too).
South of the border, Saturday’s short range SE swell will ease through Sunday and local winds should become light and variable (ahead of afternoon sea breezes) everywhere except the Lower Mid North Coast, south of about Forster (which may still see the lingering effects of the ridge, by way of a moderate to fresh E’ly breeze). So, expect diminishing SE energy across the open beaches with reasonable morning conditions ahead of the sea breeze.
Next week (Mar 23 onwards)
The weekend’s trade flow throughout the lower Coral Sea doesn’t look quite as good as it did in Wednesday’s model runs.
As such I’ve pulled back Monday’s expectations; we may see a few 2ft to possibly 3ft sets on the Sunshine Coast but the Gold Coast will probably linger around 2ft at best, with smaller surf south of Byron as the weekend’s energy fades away. This trade swell will then ease into Tuesday.
Another building ridge across the NSW coast overnight Tuesday should generate increasing short range S/SE swells for the Northern NSW coast on Wednesday, but at this stage no quality surf is expected from this source.
Of much greater interest is the tropical low I mentioned in previous notes, that’s expected to develop out near Fiji over the weekend.
The latest model guidance has changed the prognosis on its development - we’re still looking at a broad and almost stationary system (that’s good) but the overall structure looks a little less consolidated than previous model runs suggested (that's not good). And, surface wind speeds have been pegged back a bit in strength (that's not good either).
Tie that in with the considerable travel distance, and I’m not expecting anything notable from this source. However we will certainly see a building E’ly swell with the leading edge arriving Tuesday night, most open beaches should see occasional sets in the 2-3ft+ range from Wednesday onwards.
If there’s a positive to glean from the long term outlook, it’s that this swell event will probably be quite sustained (all the way through the end of the week and next weekend). However I think this swell event will be very, very inconsistent, so don’t expect fireworks. Or throaty barrels either. Even the semi-exposed points will probably struggle with this swell.
Otherwise, I’m rather interested in the southern Tasman Sea later next week. Most model guidance is suggesting we’ll see a cut-off low in the vicinity around Friday, which may end up being a significant source of swell for the southern NSW coast into next weekend.
Although this doesn’t necessarily suggest we’ll see a translation to the North Coast (and even less likely SE Qld), this feature is probably the weather system to focus your long term plans around right now as there’s a good chance we’ll a synoptic break in the current blocking pattern that’s maintaining small swells across our region. I’m quietly confident that this will end up being a sizeable swell event, albeit out of the southern quadrant, so hopefully it’ll end up favouring a large percentage of the East Coast (although, if you had to hedge your bets right now, I’d be preparing for a road trip down south).
More on this in Monday’s update.
Comments
Can anyone explain why on the seabreeze website, their Ballina wind forecast has fresh Northerlies all day today? Where do they get data from?
Pretty sure there is a strong SSE blowing (change came through about 8-8.30am) as suggested by Ben, above.
mmm the start off April way produce some waves on the horizon time will tell. that is all for now.
From Fiji;
"TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 21/1923 UTC 2015 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12F CENTRE 997HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6S 177.0W
AT 211800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 06 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.
ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED
IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH CLOUD TOPS COOLING OVER SUPPOSED LLCC.
SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 300HPA. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY NORTH-NORTHWEST
DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.4 WRAP YIELDS
DT=2.5, PT=2.5, MET=2.5.FT BASED ON DT THUS, YIELDING
T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS
POTENTIAL FOR TD12F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 220600 UTC 22.9S 176.3W MOV SSE AT 07KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 221800 UTC 23.9S 175.8W MOV SSE AT 06KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 230600 UTC 24.3S 175.8W MOV SSE AT 05KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 231800 UTC 24.4S 176.0W MOV SSE AT 04KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 220800 UTC. "
your thoughts on that?
Still the same cyl.... 3 foot........Lets just hope local winds are good on the sunny coast.... Thursday and friday morning may be the go..... Low tide early, so maybe find a bank that likes a lower tide..... And cross your fingers for no overnight onshores..
go pro ready to go, ashes scattered off fingal in s/se. apparently fell whilst taking nature shots of the numbats the rear relative to the ozzie politician, the dingbat. One has brain, one has shit for brains.
We have a name..... Cyclone Reuben.... Only cat1, but a cyclone nonetheless....
From Fiji;
"GALE WARNING 042 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 22/0700 UTC 2015 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE REUBEN CENTRE [990HPA] CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR
24.5 SOUTH 174.1 WEST AT 220600 UTC. POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 24.5S 174.1W AT 220600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO
35 KNOTS BY 230600 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 75 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 75 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 25.7S 173.6W AT 221800 UTC
AND NEAR 26.3S 173.5W AT 230600 UTC.
ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 041."
Looking good on Earth Null.....and with a smaller system to the east of it.
Click on Projection S Udo, not even close to our coast, more Fiji way...?
Sunny coast today reported at 1 1/2 foot..... Bar graph has sunny coast for wed/thur/fri at 1 to 2 foot..... Or 1 1/2 foot on average....... Ok.......
Bar graph is a computer generated model, SD. And the model often struggles with these small long range swells.
So Ben, are you sticking with your Friday forecast or upgrading it in line with Sheepdog's predictions?
Only had a quick squiz at the charts (will have a closer look this afternoon); I reckon it could be worth a small upgrade from my Friday call. However, my forecast was 2-3ft+, and SD's was 3ft. So, there's not much room to 'upgrade inline with SD's predictions'.
Braithwaite agrees to - 3ft.
Yeah there's a bee's dick in it mackdog.... I think attention should be turned to local conditions.... If you are on the sunny coast, mack, I hope overnight onshores dont ruin what could possibly be some fun little beachies..... At this stage, things look benign (good).... I'd like to know Ben's thoughts on the inland trough (wed), and the slack pressure gradient thurs' morn'..... Often local winds on the sunny coast are the hardest part of the puzzle.....
Cheers SDog, I'm on the Sunny Coast this week while my local breaks in Vicco enjoy some fun Autumn waves. Hoping I'll get a few waves in boardshorts on the beachies at Sunshine/A-bay
Yeah, you should do ok.... And if it's too crowded, don't be afraid to drive south..... But if you get to the pub at coolum, you've driven too far.......... ;)
Now now SD!!! I've warned you once already!!!! ;)
Only did that to get you off your arse....... :p
No exact spots mentioned within that 16 km stretch, donny..... lol
on a totally unrelated subject were in the world is great for a surfing holiday. the water has to be warm and very few in the way off crowds. waves don't have to be huge. will have some long service up me selves in the next couple off months :)
Virtually anywhere in the Southern Hemisphere mate. Autumn Gold everywhere.
was in bali last year thinking going somewhere new.
any one been on a surfing trip to maldives? ?
Yep been twice. North Male Atolls and Southern Atolls. Crowds are the biggest problem now.
Well.......... What sort of money do you wanna blow, Cyl'?...... Will you be travelling alone, or with the missus and kids?..... Do you want it to just be about surfing, or more than that?......
there is a few couples going there are no kids. so the girls need something to do they don't surf just looking around at the moment to see options. Bali allways seems good for couples some where new would be good though.3 weeks away.
Hmmm. Perhaps 1/2 the time in the maldives and 1/2 in Sri Lanka, mate.... A few good waves there, too... Elephants, spicy cuisine, culture, shopping ( keeps the girls happy lol).... Can get a bit rad if you go off the beaten track, though.... Do some googling on it man... cheers....
Thanks mate start looking around
oh yeah sorry about hijacking the forecasts notes haha