South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 16th March)

Best Days: Tuesday, early Wednesday: continuing but slowly abating E'ly swell. Get in early Wednesday before the northerlies develop.

Recap: Pumping trade swell all weekend (3-4ft in SE Qld, smaller south of Ballina) with excellent waves on the points. A stronger E’ly groundswell filled in today with solid 4-5ft sets on offer at most locations. Winds have remained from the southern quadrant, favouring the points. 

This week (Mar 17 - 20)

It’s been a couple of great days of waves for the points of SE Qld and Northern NSW; certainly nothing overly large in the size department but some very high quality groundswell out of the east providing excellent, long lines to many locations. 

TC Pam really was a spectacular cyclone from a meteorological point of view (which I’ll go into more detail about, in a separate article tomorrow). Phenomenal surface winds were recorded by satellites around TC Pam on Saturday morning however the large distance between these winds and our coast, as well as TC Pam's steady SE track - perpendicular across the Great Circle paths - significantly limited swell potential from this part of the storm for us.

In short, had this 60-70kt fetch been stationary and/or moving westward, we’d probably have experienced one of the biggest swells of the last few decades across the East Coast. I haven’t seen satellite derived surface winds of that strength, and covering such a vast expanse, at such northern latitudes before (in the South Pacific, anyway). 

Indeed, the Southern NSW coast is already seeing resulting long period energy from these phenomenal winds right now (which were NE in direction, aimed away from the SE Qld region which only picked up 15 seconds of sideband energy). The Sydney buoy has recorded peak swell periods in the 18 second range this afternoon - quite rare for an E/NE swell - but set waves at Manly (one of Sydney’s more reliable NE swell magnets) were only 2-3ft or so. 

As such, this confirms last week’s outlook that the core of the cyclone would not directly contribute any significant swell to the East Coast. All of the swell energy we’re seeing across NSE Qld and orthern NSW today is mainly the result of a strong, broad supporting ridge that developed south of TC Pam as it tracked south-east.

[note: there’s still some room for movement on these observations, for example we could see the onset of larger waves from this source overnight, however surf observations right across the East Coast this afternoon suggest last Friday’s forecast was on target. Ideally, we'd have a wave buoy off Lord Howe Island or Norfolk Island that'd assist in tracking and calibrating inbound E/NE groundswells from the tropics. But alas, we don't.] 

Therefore, with all of the available data at hand, I am still holding steady that our surf potential for the next few days will continue to be sourced from the supporting ridge south of TC Pam over the weekend.

I also think that we’re probably close to the peak of the upwards phase of this swell event across SE Qld and Northern NSW. Wave heights will probably hold into Tuesday morning (3-5ft) but may ease through the afternoon and a definite downwards trend is then likely through Wednesday.

However you will really have to make the most of Tuesday’s early light wind/afternoon sea breeze combo, as freshening northerlies on Wednesday (bar an early light norwester) will really start to take the shine off surface conditions. 

By Thursday this east swell will be but a distant memory, and small residual swells from the east and south will then pad out the end of the week under variable conditions: a shallow southerly change for the Mid North Coast on Thursday, reaching about Ballina, but with northerlies remaining from Byron through to the Sunshine Coast, ahead of a more seasonal light variable/afternoon sea breeze combo in most areas for Friday. 

This weekend (Mar 21 - 22)

Nothing overly special for now. A gusty southerly change will develop behind a building ridge in the early hours of Saturday morning, generating a small short range swell for the region but without any major size or substance. A few small peelers on the semi-exposed points are possible through the afternoon but I wouldn’t get your hopes up. Open south facing beaches will have bigger waves but it'll be quite bumpy.

This ridge will slowly weaken through Sunday and wave heights will correspondingly ease back in size. So given what’s in store for the next few days, I’d make a strong recommendation to surf Tuesday or Wednesday morning if you possibly can because the weekend looks rather uninteresting for most surfers. 

Next week (Mar 23 onwards)

We’ve got a fun, small to moderate SE swell possible for open beaches in Northern NSW on Monday, from a cut-off low modelled to from off the SW tip of New Zealand’s South Island on Saturday. At this stage we’re looking at set waves around 2-3ft from this source but I’ll reevaluate things over the coming week. Very small surf is likely in SE Qld from ths source.

Otherwise, there are no other major weather systems appearing in the long range models at this stage. TC Nathan continues to remain a non-event for us as it meanders around the Far Northern Coral Sea, and we’ll probably see some small trade swell mid-week from a developing trade flow NE of New Zealand over the weekend. However, no surf of any great substance is likely at this stage.