South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 2nd March)

Best Days: Wed: small east swell with generally light winds. Fri: small, building south swell in Northern NSW (not much in SE Qld) with improving winds.  

Recap: Saturday was really fun with a peaky east swell and early light winds ahead of the sea breeze. Wave heights fell steadily through Sunday and there’s been little on offer today. A small short range south swell is pushing up the Northern NSW coast.

This week (Mar 3-6)

Not much unfortunately. 

Today’s small short range south swell won’t make much of an impact anywhere, mainly due to the acute south direction which will only favour south facing beaches in Northern NSW. These locations will be bumpy under a gusty overnight southerly breeze - it’s likely to ease during Tuesday morning and may even swing SW in parts, but south facing beaches really prefer a straight west or preferably north-west wind. So, it’s your choice - bumpy 2-3ft sets at exposed south facing beaches, easing during the day, or tiny clean peelers at remaining locations. 

And north of Byron, we’ll really only see a small short range S/SE windswell from a ridge building across the coast right now. Exposed south facing beaches will pick up the most size (choppy, low quality 2ft+ sets at best) and everywhere else will remain tiny and lacklustre, around a foot or so. Give it a miss.

On Wednesday we’ll see a minor bump in mid-range east swell from a moderate, stationary fetch north of New Zealand over the weekend. It won’t be very big but some swell magnets may rake in an occasional 2ft+ set at times, most beaches will generally be a smidge smaller and the lack of strength in the swell won’t favour the points either. Conditions should be generally clean in the morning with light winds ahead an moderate E’ly sea breeze (tending NE in the south). Make sure you've got something with a decent amount of volume.

This small east swell should meander along into Thursday and Friday, with weak, slow 1-2ft+ waves at exposed stretches. The Mid North Coast may pick up a similarly small NE windswell early Thursday from a brief fetch developing off the coast, and Friday should see a building short range S’ly swell at exposed south facing beaches in Northern NSW in the wake of a fresh southerly change later Thursday. 

In fact Friday has some potential for Northern NSW as the latest model guidance is suggesting we’ll see the local pressure gradient relax quickly as the front pushes out into the Tasman Sea, and with a building south swell on tap there could be some fun waves on offer through the afternoon. However for now it’s best to err on the cautious side as we’re not looking at much more than occasional 3ft to maybe 4ft sets at south swell magnets south of Byron Bay, and smaller 2ft waves at remaining open beaches. I’ll fine tune the specifics on Wednesday.

Also, it needs to be pointed out (again!) that these synoptic setups are almost never favourable for SE Qld. It’s unlikely that much, if any of Friday's south swell will make landfall north of Byron Bay; the main source of swell here will be a small building S/SE windswell associated with a temporary ridge through the Coral Sea. Perhaps some bumpy 2ft+ waves at exposed south facing beaches, generally 1ft+ at most beaches, with early light SW winds tending moderate SE during the day. 

This weekend (Mar 7-8)

We’ve got two key trends on target for the weekend: an easing south swell through Saturday, and a possible small building east swell into Sunday.

Saturday's abating southerly swell will really only favour exposed south facing beaches in Northern NSW, and the early morning looks to offer the best surf with light NW winds ahead of a freshening N/NE trend. Expect 2-3ft waves at south facing beaches in Northern NSW, smaller at remaining beaches, and even smaller surf in SE Qld (1-2ft tops and fading, being S/SE swell from Friday). 

On Sunday the south swell will be really starting to fade but we may begin to see a small trade swell from a building ridge through the Coral Sea. It’s too early to pin down specifics but a couple of feet at most open beaches is a plausible scenario for now.

Next week (Mar 9 onwards)

The broad long term pattern seems to be swinging towards a reintensification of the trades across the Northern Tasman Sea (from about Sunday onwards), which suggests an extended period of east swell. At this stage there’s no clear indication for any major developments within this region that could lead to a significant swell event, so for now the most likely outcome is for a period of regulation small to moderate trade swell favouring the open beaches at most coasts. I’ll reassess things in Wednesday’s update.