South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 25th February)=

Best Days: Most days should have fun waves across the beach breaks, with the best conditions in the early mornings.

Recap: The swell is easing but there have still been plenty of fun waves on offer across the points under southerly breezes. Winds have been much lighter on the Mid North Coast.

This week (Feb 26 - 27)  

Thursday will see a further small drop in size across most regions, but it’ll only be a minor easing trend in SE Qld: right now SW of Caledonia we’ve got a fresh fetch of E’ly winds aimed into the southern Queensland coast that should maintain peaky 2-3ft waves through much of the day (perhaps a few bigger sets on the Sunshine Coast).

The swell direction should shift a little more to the east too, providing a slightly more uniform size across the coast down to about Ballina or maybe Yamba. Expect smaller surf along the Mid North Coast.

As for local winds - we’re looking at relaxed pressure gradient for the next few days so the general trend will be light variable (probably offshore) in the mornings and light to moderate sea breezes that’ll most likely be in the ~10kt range. So, lots of fun for the beach breaks.

Friday will start off a little smaller, with Thursday’s swell easing a touch - however we’ve got a new long range E/NE groundswell due in around mid-late morning, generated by an impressive trough that developed well NE of New Zealand over the weekend. 

As I mentioned on Monday, core wind strengths were quite impressive however the system wasn’t positioned perfectly for all locations (aimed more favourably towards northern coasts than southern locales) and it slowly snuck inside the swell shadow of New Zealand over the last day or so, which will temper wave heights at the East Coast. 

Without any buoy data to the far east of us (to monitor swell activity), it’s always difficult to have confidence on the arrival times of incoming long range energy from the eastern quadrant. But based on model data, the early session is likely to be a little undersized ahead of a building trend through mid-late morning and peak in to the afternoon. 

The fading remnants of TC Marcia should maintain a small undercurrent of small mid-range trade swell in the mix (2ft+ open beaches in the north), but there’ll be very occasional bigger sets in the 3-4ft range at open beaches in Northern NSW and SE Qld after lunch, from the long range source - but keep in mind that they will be rather inconsistent. Wave heights may be a little smaller across the Mid North Coast from this fetch (and definitely smaller from the mid-range trade swell).

Anyway, tie this in with favourably light winds and we’ve got a good day of beachies on the cards for most coasts.

This weekend (Feb 28 - Mar 1)

Friday’s long range E/NE swell will peak in the early hours of Saturday morning before slowly easing across the weekend. We may see a few stray 3-4ft sets at swell magnets in the north early morning but it’ll probably ease to 2-3ft by mid-late morning. Expect smaller waves across the Mid North Coast.

Otherwise, a small undercurrent of mid-range trade swell (from a local source south of New Caledonia on Friday) should also maintain a couple of feet of peaky waves at exposed beaches in the north.

Conditions are looking best for the early session with mainly light variable winds however the sea breeze will probably develop earlier and have a little more strength than previous days (in fact it’ll probably get quite gusty across the Mid North Coast). The afternoon breeze will be NE in the south but more E’ly in the north. Either way definitely aim for an early session. 

Sunday will then see a small mix of swells with similar winds - so aim for a morning paddle for the best conditions. Our internal (computer generated) surf model data is calling for 2-3ft on the Gold and Sunshine Coasts early Sunday morning but I think it’ll probably be a little smaller than this. Expect smaller wave heights across the Mid North Coast. 

Next week (Mar 2 onwards)

Unfortunately, the broadening trade flow north of New Zealand discussed on Monday has been weakened a little in the latest model guidance. 

There’s still plenty of activity towards the second half of the long range model runs, but often under these circumstances it’s common for the models to incorrectly pick up the genesis of these broadscale patterns, and they'll sometimes continually push back the associated swells by a day or so, every day, over a period of time (creating the feeling that the forecast is being delayed day after day after day).

It certainly feels like this is the case right now however we’ll have a better understanding of this in Friday’s notes. However the swell source hasn’t evaporated completely - some models (i.e. the European solution) still shows a lot of promise for a continuation of this broad, extended trade flow through into the South Pacific - but I’ll feel more confident once they all come into line a little more. 

Otherwise, with the models diverging beyond the weekend it’s too early have confidence in a couple of scenarios on the cards (such as a strong south swell mid-late next week, from a strong frontal progression through the southern Tasman Sea, or a strengthening trade flow through the Coral Sea early-mid next week). I’ll have more on this in Friday’s update.