South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 23rd February)

Best Days: Pumping waves all week, although smaller than what we've seen in recent days. Good winds, mainly in the mornings. Fun weekend of beachbreaks ahead, and next week looks unreal too with a strong E'ly swell on the cards.

Recap: Epic run of waves in a few areas (mainly Coolangatta) but tricky winds associated with ex-TC Marcia delivered a wide range of options elsewhere (from terrible to pretty good). No shortage of size though with a combination of trade swell and reinvigorated SE swell from the reformed low that was ex-TC Marcia, with exposed beaches in the 6ft+ range at times through late Sunday and early Monday. Wave heights now appear to be dropping (with buoy data confirming the trend) although there’s no shortage of quality as per our Snapper surfcam (see below).

This week (Feb 24 - 27)  

With TC Marcia now weakening off the SE Qld coast, it feels like we can finally kick off the forecast week with a recalibration of the forecast models. 

Right now we’ve got an E/NE fetch off the coast that’s expected to swing slowly clockwise (i.e. E’ly then E/SE) overnight and through Tuesday as ex-TC Marcia continues to weaken and track north-east.

This should maintain anywhere between 3ft and occasionally 5ft at exposed parts of the SE Qld and Far Northern NSW coasts on Tuesday, with smaller surf at the semi-exposed points and along the Mid North Coast. Winds should remain moderate S/SE in most areas but periods of SW winds are possible early morning. South of about Ballina, winds are likely to be light and variable early morning, tending NE into the afternoon.

On Wednesday we’ll see this swell source slowly dry up but it’ll probably still hold in and around the 3ft+ range at most open beaches, with slightly smaller waves at the semi-exposed points (smaller surf south of Yamba though). The pressure gradient will continue to weaken so winds will be a little lighter but probably along the same pattern as Tuesday. South facing beaches in Northern NSW may also see a small S/SE swell arrive during the day (from a weak front expected to cross the southern NSW coast on Tuesday) but no great size is expected from this source. 

By Thursday we’ll be at the bottom of the swell cycle. By no means does this insinuate bad surf - most exposed beaches should still be pulling in peaky 2-3ft waves, and the semi-exposed points should still have plenty of fun small runners. Early light winds and afternoon sea breezes will ensure the morning has the best conditions.

Friday looks like we’ll finish the week with some fun waves, thanks to a new pulse of long range E'ly swell, generated by an impressive trough that developed well NE of New Zealand over the weekend. Core wind strengths were reasonably impressive however the system wasn’t positioned perfectly for all locations (aimed more favourably towards northern coasts than southern locales) and it’s now slowly sneaking inside the swell shadow of New Zealand too, which will cut off the energy supply. 

Regardless, we’re still looking at some very good waves arriving from this source on Friday morning and current indications are that we’ll see light variable winds for most of the day. The key difference between this swell and what we’ve seen over the last week will be the consistency: the large travel distance will create much longer breaks between sets (although, the lingering remnants of TC Marcia mid-week should maintain a small undercurrent of mid-range trade swell in the mix).

So, the two swell trains should combine to create a great day of waves on Friday; the mid-range trade swell should be worthy of 2-3ft surf, whilst the long range E’ly swell should provide inconsistent 3-4ft+ bombs at exposed beaches (running a little smaller along the semi-exposed points). Should be plenty of options across the entire coast, although we may see marginally smaller surf across the Mid North Coast (from both swell sources) and there’s a chance for a few bigger bombs on the Sunshine Coast (due to its better alignment for the long range groundswell).

This weekend (Feb 28 - Mar 1)

Friday’s long range E’ly groundswell is expected to ease slowly through the weekend. 

However, the trades south and southwest of New Caledonia are expected to restrengthen through Friday, and should provide a slow increase in mid-range swell over the weekend that’ll arrest the otherwise easing trend from the long range source. 

As such, we’re looking at early 3-4ft sets in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW on Saturday (a little smaller on the Mid North Coast), with a possible easing trend during the day before the mid-range swell rebuilds late afternoon and into Sunday into the 2-3ft+ range (again, a little smaller on the Mid North Coast). 

At this stage, local winds look best for the mornings with a weak pressure gradient providing light/variable patterns. Freshening sea breezes are expected in the afternoon, probably NE along the Mid North Coast, E’ly in far Northern NSW and E/SE across SE Qld. 

I’ll take a closer look at all of this in Wednesday’s notes; hopefully the models will strengthen the trades a little more for the end of this week, and correspondingly boost the weekend’s size potential. 

Next week (Mar 2 onwards)

Looking really good at this stage. The trades north of New Zealand are expected to fire up later this week and through the weekend (and beyond), generating another sustained E’ly groundswell that should start to appear around Monday and build strongly through the middle of next week, possibly holding through to next weekend. 

Current indications are for a 4-5ft+ from this source but there’s a chance we could see an upgrade (some of the models have the fetch retrograding to the coast, which could deliver a similar pattern as what we’ve seen over the last four or five days). I’ll update my thoughts on this in Wednesday’s notes.