Large swells, complex conditions
South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 18th February)
Best Days: Really hard to be confident on when there will be 'good waves' as many coasts simply won't be able to handle this size range with these conditions. At this stage the weekend is probably your best bet for some great waves, as the swell settles back and winds swing to the SW.
Recap: Solid mix of building E’ly swells with gusty E’ly winds in Northern NSW, tending S thru SE on the Gold Coast and SE on the Sunshine Coast. Winds have been much lighter - occasionally variable - on the Mid North Coast.
This week (Feb 19 - 20)
It doesn’t get much more complex than this.
I spent quite a bit of time theorising about the current and future synoptic charts on Monday, and without wanting to rehash much of the same stuff, it’s worth reiterating a few main points. They are:
1. A broad, established, stationary trade flow that’s providing a solid undercurrent of E’ly swell
2. A couple of small embedded troughs within the trade flow; areas of enhancement that are retrograding towards the coast and further boosting wave heights
3. An active monsoon trough across the Coral Sea, with a Tropical Low positioned roughly in the middle that’s tracking S/SW and may reach Cat 1 status just prior to a coastal crossing early Friday morning.
As per our surf cams, the Goldy looks every part of 6ft right now. As the Coral Sea Tropical Low tracks southwards, it’ll tighten the pressure gradient off the coast which will further build wave heights from today.
There is still somewhat of a disagreement between the models as to how things will evolve in the southern Coral Sea. But now that we’re just a couple of days ahead of it reaching maturity off the SE Qld coast, decisions have to be made. Fences can no longer be sat upon (not that I like to sit on 'em anyway).
Thursday will become seriously large by late in the day throughout SE Qld and Far Northern NSW (smaller to the south), through into Friday morning - anywhere in the 8-10ft+ range at exposed coasts.
To be honest there’s certainly the potential for much bigger waves than this but we simply don’t see enough of these swell events from year to year to have a high degree of confidence, via hindcast data. The number of overlapping swell trains, enhanced by embedded retrograding micro-scale troughs, plus a nearby Cat 1 Tropical Cyclone simply throws too many variables into the mix to really pin down a specific number.
Either way it’s going to be very big. And aside from the fact that this size range will be outside the scope of most recreational surfers, there are simply not a lot of locations that can handle these conditions anyway.
Adding considerable uncertainty to the outlook for the next few days is the local wind field. This is mainly due to the modelled TC crossing in and around the Rockhampton region early Friday. As a rule this would ordinarily maintain poor winds from the eastern quadrant across most coasts south of this point (i.e. our entire forecast region), however the models are also suggesting we’ll see a lingering trough through to the Far Northern NSW Coast at around the same time.
Atmospheric models often poorly estimate complex coastal troughs and their associated wind regimes, so despite the latest guidance suggesting it’ll be blown out, I think there’s a chance for periods of light variable winds at times, in some areas. This will certainly be the case through the weekend once the (reinvigorated) Coral Sea Low tracks southwards along the Northern NSW coast - allowing a SW outflow to its north - but I’d be hesitant to write off Friday's conditions right here and now.
So due to the complex outlook, it’s really going to be best to reevaluate this again late Thursday. I’ll update accordingly in the comments below these notes. But if you’re planning to get wet over the coming days, I’d recommend aiming for the most sheltered location you can think of. Take an umbrella too.
This weekend (Feb 21 - 22)
As mentioned above, there is still some disagreement between the models as to how the synoptics will evolve over the weekend. Right now current thinking is that we’ll see a (somewhat reformed) Coral Sea low track southwards parallel to the Northern NSW coast later Friday, before pushing out into the central Tasman Sea on Saturday.
In short, what this means is that the local source of large, short range swell will disappear rather quickly over the weekend, leaving us with decaying energy on top of a chaotic mix of trade swells (with a baseline in the 4ft range). We may also see a return south swell from the western flank of the low - depending on how it develops - but local winds should swing to the SW.
As such, expect rapidly falling wave heights over the weekend (initially remaining large in the south for longer, compared to the north). Surf size could easily halve or more between Friday morning and Saturday morning, but should level out into Sunday with fun beachbreak-sized surf.
Whether this event ends up being a ‘bank buster’ will depend on the speed of the southward track of this system. Also, it’s worth pointing out that this surf outlook is certainly at the optimistic end of the spectrum. However based on the model trends over the last few days confidence is increasing that we’ll see a scenario of this nature unfold. I’ll pin down the specifics in more detail on Friday.
Next week (Feb 23 onwards)
Our swell potential for early next week hinges around the future movements of this (by then, Tasman) low. If we follow the favoured model guidance for the weekend, this would involve the low meandering about the Tasman Sea for a couple of days, providing varying degrees of somewhat strong SE swell, mainly for the Northern NSW coast. However it’s too early to get overly confident on this so we’ll reassess in more detail on Friday.
Elsewhere, a strengthening Tropical Low SE of Fiji over the weekend should generate a fresh round of easterly swell for mid-next week (say, in the 4ft range). So there are plenty of future swells to look forward to as well. Check the notes below for updates on Thursday, followed by a fresh batch of forecaster’s notes on Friday.
Comments
Now this really doesn't look too shabby.
looks to me like it will be washed out by tomorrow and only kirra being surfable. so much sand in the bay!
I've seen a model of the TC crossing the coast then ex-TC tracking back out near Ballina after following an inland crescent curve. Questions - timing of coast crossing at Ballina if it does that, and also potential for damage? Or does your analysis have a different prognosis?
PS initial coast crossing near Gladstone, swinging west of Brissie curving back around under to Ballina
First time in 15 years of living here I can recall a TC behaving this way i.e. down to the north coast over land for the last bit. However I'm sure you guys keep meteorological records far better than me. But pertinent point being unusually high water temps at the mo... If it doesn't cross the coast looks like still tracking south.
Ex Tc Oswald tracked the whole way inland from the GOC.
But yeah, been a while since one crossed then recurved back out to sea. Anything could happen once the low tracks back out to sea.
TC's represent the futility of mans attempt to predict the weather. Or climate.
well models have done a pretty good job of resolving this one so far.
Like alot of things , knowledge has come a long way and is improving all the time.
And welcome Tropical Cyclone Marcia.. http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml
Yep. Beat me to it Craig!!! And she's intensifying more the BOM and EC predicted. So maybe GFS is on the money (again)?
Yeah Ben and I've been thinking the way of GFS since the beginning, seems to be going that way.
Wait, GFS had the best forecast for surfers right?
Yes effectively.
Winds dead E, even ENE here. Over and out.
QLD looks more favourable.
Wonder if there's room for moi in the lineup at Noosa.?
Noosa's smaller today than yesterday Steve. Looks like ya missed the boat along with the rest of the sheep!!!
Latest BOM map appears to be curving Marcia ECs way from what I can see.
Just surfed the Superbank (!). Didn't see the size last night but suspect it's eased off a tad temporarily this morning. Was 3-4ft running from Greenmount to Kirra, probably 4-6ft on the outside. Despite moderate ESE winds at the Cooly AWS the surf was quite clean but suffering under the high tide.
I suspect it's a combination of the tide and swell direction (more south of east than yesterday)....oh and that crappy bank out in the middle of the bay!!!
You're synopsis is bang on what my mate just relayed to me after surfing it this morning.
My mate had an encounter with a 6ft friend this morning at snapper to Coolly. Swam straight underneath him. Did you see his 6ft friend Ben?
Saw a big dolphin cruising solo through the lineup (swam a couple of feet away from me, around the Greeny section). Definitely not a shark though.
Fun ? Crowds ?
What, Ben stops working to go surfing? Keep it up!
No, just a quick surf before work..Bennies heading to Byron to fix the cam problems..then surf the pass all arvo.
i'm not seeing the 8-10ft we expected occurring due to the predicted track and current ascat. that being said this is a probably a good thing as it looks like we are in line for 4-6 of east for the next two days. then 3-4 for a good 4-5 days after that. imo.
hopefully the banks will survive.
Lets hope so.
The JTWC call is solid.
"THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. TC 13P IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 30 AND SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND DISSIPATE AS
IT RE-CURVES OVER LAND DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND
INTERACTION. THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM WILL RE-EMERGE OVER WATER
NEAR TAU 72 AND WILL LIKELY RE-INTENSIFY AS A SUBTROPICAL LOW WHILE
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD."
6 out of 10 for Sunshine Coast surf report this morning !!!!!
Are you kidding ....Do you even look Mark Pridmore ?
It is rubbish out there !
Has been way off the MARK lately....MORE effort required......thanks.
Curly, Mark had 4/10 and said it was pretty much points only.
The dawn report which should be used as a quick guide on early conditions until the observed report is done had the 6/10 which was probably a touch high. It did have choppy 5-6ft though with options limited to the points.
Thanks for responding to my feedback Craig.
Just been way off target lately, and with all the talk about overstating/overestimating.......
From what I could see on cams at Noosa and on the way to work at Alex I would give it a 2/10 and it hadn't changed from dawn, but understand it is totally objective and to each their own. Only one spot I know of in these winds and that's for a body womp !
I've been out in the corner last couple of afternoons and been absolute crap but report insists on giving average to above average marks ?!?
Thanks for the service.
No worries, hopefully some better conditions into the weekend!
The south end bar to bah stretch has been rubbish for almost 2 weeks but it seemed a slightly different story from bah north where the reports occur, apparently not haha.
Is that Marcia's defined eye one can see on the radar?
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR222.loop.shtml#skip
Looks to be tracking almost due west on the radar too?
Latest GFS doesn't look too bad for sunday on the open beaches? west winds and still a bit of swell around?
Yeah good luck finding a bank that doesn't have a storm bar!!!
Also, not sure GFS is leading the charge with Marcia's forecast track now (particularly into the weekend). BOM and JWTC painting a different story and it appears each GFS run today is slowly aligning with BOM/EC to a certain extent.
Cat 3 now. intensifying rapidly.
Insane, especially as the BOM didn't have a TC at all this time yesterday.
Forecast to reach Cat 4 on landfall!!
That's what I was implying with my comment above about her eye!! Once these things form a visible eye, they aren't weakening!!!!
GFS might well be on the money hey...at least with respect to her intensity crossing the coast. GFS's track after that seems to be a wee bit faster pushing her back out into the Tasman compared to BOM and JWTC.
Geez maybe cat 4 how much does it have to drop to count as bombing
"Bombing lows" are totally different beasts with far greater spatial coverage and fetch lengths. A drop of 24hPa in less than 24 hours is needed, and these drops in central pressure aren't usually seen with tropical cyclones. More so real strong and damaging winds around the cyclones core which weaken rapidly away from its centre.
Thanks for the information Craig great learning curve. Very quick building cyclone I must say.
She's compact!!!
http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/cur_25km_META/zooms/WMBd...
http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/cur_25km_META/zooms/WMBd...
But quite pretty at the same time.
http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/vis_sat2.html?region=mackay&loop=no&images=...
Closest bom observation site to her eye. Pressure dropping rapidly.
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ60801/IDQ60801.94371.shtml
Some discussion being stated there's a chance she could reach Cat 5 just before she crosses the coast tomorrow morning.
Fark. Just gone Cat 4!!! Geezus!!!
Oh dear.........
cat 5 when crosses coast crazy for a system tthat was forecast to be a weak cat1
Yeah they reckon she's intensified as quickly as a cyclone can intensify. Amazing stuff.
What's with the latest BOM wind forecast for SE coast and moreton bay tomorrow?
All over the shop particularly the difference in wind directions between SC/GC and Moreton bay? How can we have S/SE winds when a TC is N/NW of Brisbane and there's a high in the Tasman?
Fark it's going to go Cat 5 now. Insane.
Never seen a system deepen that quickly when forecast to be so benign 24 hours before.
Wowowowwowowowowowow!!!
Its gone from category nothing to 5. Everyones cracking. They are all going gangbusters on the weather channel. Is there anyone who picked this???????
BOM 3 Day about 3 days ago had something very similar to this in terms of a TC, but I'm not sure what strength.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center identified it's potential first and it seems as BOM had to react and put out a possible cyclone formation warning.
Since then it's gone absolutely mental.
not for MacKay though.
All the models have it moving south, but its not doing anything the models say.
And so mother nature continues to baffle everyone, they do what they want when they want,
Has any one heard off a system going from zip to cat 5 in this short off time?
I think Hamish kind of did that but over two days. According to the gurus it broke all the rules too, defied windshear, stayed cat 5 etc
So I'm guessing that the forecasts weren't as accurate as stated Freeride ?
Not having a go mate , at all. I've just seen too many cyclones fizz, fail , dodge , dart and explode in WA where the potential isn't limited to waves you may catch but how flogged the coast is going to get.
It tends to underline the fact that man is pushing shit uphill with a sharp stick trying to guess the weather beyond the immediate future.
Blowin this system has gone outside even the parameters of the models. Its Blownup!
Geez who would be a forecaster. Ben should head up the coast he might meet it head on at Yapoon or somewhere!
JWTC never had it going Cat 5. Not even close.
No, but they identified it and flagged it as a significant TC..
"FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 170 NM RADIUS OF 14.7S 155.3E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS"
Ummmm they always use the word significant Craig. Even if it's Cat 1.
Ah, haven't noticed.
Not having a go at your's or Ben's work either Craig. I've been a fan of Swellnets forecasts for years.
If you weren't pumping out a reliable product you wouldn't have thousands of fans and hundreds of detractors saying you're crowding out the best days.
Just saying that cyclones are the embodiment of the limitations of model based prophesying.
Yeah, no didn't think you were having a go at all.
Love these unprecedented events, so interesting!
Winds topped out at 190km/h at Creal Reef around 6.30pm. Be interesting to see what Middle Percy Is throws up in the morning!
Marcia is intense , but a midget .
And you know what they say about strong midgets .... They're unpredictable .
Midget systems tend to defy upper level steering effects as they are small so can knife through VWS .
I would n't be surprised if it turns into a Coast hugger , a few hours ago it stalled up from its March WSW and has now shifted in a SSW direction .
Could be interesting to watch ....
PS. Creal reef AWS failed at 200 km/h .
Check the temps aswell as wind speeds on obs .
Bom now saying Hervey Bay could be in the firing line. She looks like a coast hugger alright and I couldnt imagine Hervey Bay is ready for a Cat 5 TC!!!
I always looked at middle Percy for wave heights inmMackay and with winds shifting sw would be an hour of possible legit 6ft t north wall - scoped out a point south needing 4-6 metre readings on the bouy saw it offer 1 ft looooong barrels once saw it as a 100 year storm break and WALLA once in a hundred years arrives FML could still make the early flight I suppose but don't
Fuck you've got some knowledge Southy.
Have you got a Met background ?
cat 5 as of 4am. BAM!
200km/hr wind gust recorded at Middle Percy Island (SE of Mackay). Looks like it blew the rain gauge bucket away at the same time too.
Latest map I have seen shows it curving back out to sea crossing around Tweed Heads and ending up off Coffs. Given the water temps at the moment, is there a chance this could reform again once it goes back out to sea?
It's a very complex situation but one solution suggests that there'll be two lows - STC Marcia plus another low embeded in the trough line, off the Northern NSW coast. GFS is suggesting they'll merge offshore from Coffs as you said. But there's still considerable divergence across the models. Another tricky day for forecasters!
Hervey Bay has big flooding and storm surge issues. Will be an interesting one to watch if it stays on the coast.
Channel 7 have a 'Cyclone Marcia Countdown' clock, detailed to the second. Classic media.
Touchdown.
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR222.loop.shtml#skip
Hey Blowin, point taken mate. Little Marcia has been dynamite.
Southey, she's a compact system but there was never any issue with shear. She moved into an exceptionally low shear enivronment, that was well modelled and bang.
Hope you're somewhere safe (and dry) Fitz.
All good here at Agnes at the moment thanks Stu. Even had a moment of blue sky and sunshine (for a moment!) Had a fun surf even with some logs floating around the line up yesterday. Waiting and watching. Looks like its smashing Stanage bay as we speak. 208kmph gusts at Percy Is early this morning. Ouch!
Cheers
Interesting stuff Don. Samuel Hill has only just cracked 30kts, and seems to be only ~60km from the eye based on that radar. Super compact.
Few Spots north of Yeppoon that would have been interesting. Looks like it is crossing at Shoalwater Bay.
Yeppoon - High tide - 4.7m..... 10.19am.....
Hervey Bay - 4.2m..... 9.36am.....
Not good...
Best wishes and stay safe.....
good to see you back SD.
Cheers, fr... Don't mind bitching with you... it's trolls with no input I can't stand...
Wifey's been in hospital... Trying to run everything on my own atm anyway....
Topography has to be taken into account... Pending on actual landfall point, features like Mt Morgan for example, must be looked at in relation to future movement... Land is not a 2 dimensional plain.....
Good Morning VietNam! Marcia - Cat 5. No snide personal comments about Ben or SwellNet... this is Ma Ocean stirring her pot and persons can speculate but not predict! That little Blue Morphos flapped its wings in the Amazon and it's all up for grabs.
Some good info above... thanks! Where's me umbrella?
Be interesting to see how this affects SEQLD/NENSW.....we're already under the influence of a trough line associated with TC Marcia...been heavy rain here overnight....could be a serious flooding issue ahead.
Particularly down your way Steve if those GFS totals come off over the coming day/s.
Jeez that.s an impressive satellite picture with the eye as it hits Stanage Bay.
Does anyone know that animated wind imaging site so I can show the kids. Forgotten the name.
Earth null I believe.
Samuel hill weather station looks to be right in the firing line so will be interesting to see obs from that as she passes over.
That's the one thanks Don
Unsure about your neck of the woods Steve, but I don't think Brisbane will be getting any riverine flooding. Compact system, rainfall appears all coastal, Wivenhoe is at 75%, with flood mitigation storage above that. Catchments up that way are dry also, will need probably 100mm+ of rain to even get some runoff. Only had up to 20 or so at best thus far. Likely local streams and stormwater flooding issues however. Especially if coinciding with these big tides/storm surge for low lying areas.
cyclone speed, angle etc re' Byfield mountain range (22.85s -150.57) is now crucial.... Bom has 2 to 3 outcomes..... I'll go with a dividing range hugger..... I'd be quite surprised if it goes west of Mt Morgan.... But hey,,, it's been a freaky system ever since the two td's merged in the coral sea on tues'.
From BOM - 10am est (11am my time) - "Location: within 9 kilometres of 22.8 degrees South 150.5 degrees East"................
Its approach towards Mt Archer from around 23 - 150.5 now becomes crucial....... Either a slight ssw ot sse bias can make all the difference.... A direct hit and continued southerly direction on Mt Archer will weaken the system significantly more so than a slight pinball bounce either to the sse or ssw....
Bom - 1.01pm AEDT - " Location: within 9 kilometres of 23.1 degrees South 150.5 degrees East"...
Hmmm, direct hit on Rocky looks on the cards... Travelling 2 to 5 degrees west of direct south.... It will then either tend more ssw , following the valley contours through to Westwood, rapidly weakening, or will tend sse as it feels Mount Morgan..... My bet is on the latter...... And the worrying thing about that scenario is the Fitzroy river/swamp region may act like a "quick drink"......
Hey, Fitzroy, if she starts to follow the the river named after you, and lines up casuarina island, watch your back mate...Possibility of a rapid change of direction at about 23 -150.7.... se towards Gladstone and onto Agnes.....
As I said earlier, Mt Morgan is the key over the next 2 to 4 hours.....
Yeah it'll be interesting to watch indeed. Looks like a perfect highway east of the ranges..
Yeah SD, Keeping a close eye on the radar. ATM I think it'll be OK but I've been through plenty before and they are all unpredictable. I'm glad we didn't get the brunt.
Fuck, some people around here are going into full panic mode. Unbelievable.
I haven't heard any reports from Stanage. I hope all are OK there.
Fitzy, craig,,, last bom report had it a 23.2- 150..... Not too far off the mark..... Radar shows a sse bias now.....
Yep, is definitely tracking SSE.
Yep, is definitely tracking SSE.
This would be the one time I hope your wrong SD. Would be happy to see it track S or anywhere west of that :)
Looking a bit better for you now, fitzy... First instinct is generally right..... Looking like a dividing range hugger with a sse bias........ Following that range (craig posted picture).....
Hows the wind at Agnes Fitzy?
Not bad at the moment Steve. 25-30kts. Sun is out again! Watching and waiting.
The worry is the ground is saturated and won't take much wind to start bringing down trees.
Swells seems roughly the same as yesterday, somewhere in the 6ft mark at exposed spots. Winds area howling from the S right now (sitting in the car overlooking D'Bah) and its rained quite a lot in the last 12 hours (although bugger all rain yesty).
It's a little difficult to hindcast the reasons why surf size fell short of Wednesday's expectations (whilst I'm on the road) although gut feel is that as STC Marcia started to tighten up so rapidly (which wasn't modelled very well, although the track was) it weakened part of the broader E'ly infeed close to the SE Qld coast that was initially expected to be the sources of the main kick late yesterday and early today.
Love these systems though. Just fascinating to watch their evolution.
Insane!
Whoa!
45 knot gusts at Cape Byron now.
I think that is probably more related to some micro-circulation in the trough line.
1972. Cyclone Emily formed in a similar region, crossed the coast as cat4 not too far to the south of Marcia... Ended up a dividing range hugger all the way to nnsw...
Beautiful sunny day here, not a cloud in the sky.
Loving the chat gentlemen. It's very exciting to read and to hear from people on the ground on the EC.
Stay safe fellas.
You stay safe too brother. Apparently a reasonable quake there, off the north coast the other day, and a little shake as far down as Tokyo. Parents were expecting to hear from you on Monday/Tuesday and were a little worried (as they do). Told them has seen you posting on the forums so nothing to worry about. Back in the surf yet?
Maybe this weekend. Tell them all good, I was snowboarding.
Been looking at the BOM website. Looks like you're in for a spot of rain and wind.
Probably some nice waves around on the back end of this weather event. Enjoy.
Cheers Bro.
No worries man, will let them know. Happy to sit it out for better conditions in a day or two (or three). After today, not back to work until Wednesday so plenty of time to pick the best of it.
Your broccoli seedlings are toast, Steve
Wonder how the reef at Bargara is going
3m Storm surge predicted above the high tide mark. Gnarly.
The media have been incorrectly reporting this I believe. There is a lot of confusion around storm tide level, HAT, gauge zero, and how this compares to mAHD.
Interesting. I suppose there are lots of calls being made in regards to this system that are unknowns giving its nature. Cheers
You can see the two tropical distrubances linked to the rainfall events across central Queensland and Northern NSW here.
These two features are forecast to consolidate Saturday evening.
Cabooture weather 5 day gfs looks good.
Love how the media are relating brisbanes current wind and rain to Marcia when it's all from the trough Craig's shown above.
Samuel Hill is starting to show some increased wind readings.
170km/hr as Marcia went to the west of the station. Pressure not as low as I would have expected?
Piss poor down at the cooly strech way this morning, not the big swell that was expected could be due to the tide though.
Piss poor? Saw with my own eyes 6ft sets. And with fresh S'ly winds it was super clean from Snapper to Kirra. The high tide wasn't helping (neither was the rain), but I'd be quite reluctant to call it piss poor.
Sure, smaller than what was expected (which I'll try to detail in this afternoon's notes) but 6ft surf on the Gold Coast would have to be somewhere in the top 10-15% of annual swell events.
6ft at kirra & snapper or just Dbah?
Saw some 4-5ft sets at Kirra. Looks bloody nice, if a little fatter than the low/incoming tide yesterday.
out there this arv!
Haha no way was it 6ft anywhere from snapper-kirra, 4-5ft at best on the very incon bigger set or our wave height scale must be different. Maybe piss poor wrong wording but been way better in the past few weeks.
Must say looks far cleaner now then it did early this morning.
High tide every morning has impacted wave heights but there were easy 6ft sets at D'Bah this AM (sat in the car for 45 mins whilst on a couple of phone calls), and I saw a couple of 4-5ft bombs at Kirra this morning from the apartment (couple of feet overhead). Seemed to be smaller from Rainbow through Cooly (yesterday through all tides as well). That's just my interpretation anyway. Fits in with regional surf reports and buoy data too.
It's smaller from rainbow to coolly thanks to that outer bank in the middle of the bay bottom dragging the swells.
She's decaying. Eyes starting to get smaller.
Caloundra this morning, so there's definitely some swell.
Nice pic Wally, whereabouts at Caloundra?
Pretty impressive time lapse of Marcia's birth and landfall.
http://www.cabooltureweather.com/CycloneTimeLapse/CycloneMarciaTimelapse...
Quote from "Into the Red Zone"- 10.2.2015-"If a cyclone takes the same route as Ola just recently and keeps it form.
IMO we could see it land right on top SE qld".
Well not quite but close..........Similar weather pattern 2 weeks later?????????
freeride76 commented Friday, 20 Feb 2015 at 7:50am Hey Blowin, point taken mate. Little Marcia has been dynamite.
Southey, she's a compact system but there was never any issue with shear. She moved into an exceptionally low shear enivronment, that was well modelled and bang.
Steve .
I failed to mention also that ontop of VWS not impacting " size challenged " systems they also don't tend to follow steering patterns either .
I reckon if she had made it 20-30kms to the east of where she landfell , then we would be looking at an EXTREME situation along the coast .
That being said she holds till Cat3 for a fair distance on the track maps .
Welly you are right , due to typical atmosperic patterns cyclones that form within weeks of each other tend to mirror paths .
now if you you dropped that S off the above statement then 100 % correct .
Latest JTWC track map shows remnants of Marcia now exiting north of Brisbane and stalling.
That'll be interesting considering the flooding rain we are now getting from the surface trough.
Could get very nasty.
Yeah, not good..
JWTC 21/06z forecast strength....that's still Cat 1 yeah?
Yep.
Rocky in for a rough ride by the looks of it.
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR233.loop.shtml#skip
Yeppoon currently copping 150km/hr gusts!!!
And from Ben's post Wednesday..
"Interesting BOM forecasts for Thursday and Friday:
Byron Coastal Waters Forecast: Point Danger to Wooli
Thursday 19 February: Swell: Easterly 1.5 to 2.5 metres, tending northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres around midday.
Friday 20 February: Swell: East to northeasterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 2 metres north of Cape Byron during the morning.
Gold Coast Waters Forecast: Cape Moreton to Point Danger
Thursday 19 February: Swell: Easterly 2 to 2.5 metres.
Friday 20 February: Swell: Easterly 2 to 2.5 metres.
Well Byron Buoy is between 3.1m Sig Height and 5.6m Max currently...
http://www.ehp.qld.gov.au/coastal/monitoring/storm-tides/images/graphs/r...
Only 0.5 m storm surge at Yeppoon.
Wind just died over Rocky. Looks like the eye.
Yeah right on.. http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ60801/IDQ60801.94374.shtml
Stopped reading an hour ago as well.
And here comes the other side
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ60801/IDQ60801.94374.shtml
30-40 knots SSE winds at Cape Byron.
BOM are calling 20-25 knot E'lies....thats a pretty major undercall.
They've obviously failed to forecast the intensity and possible small closed low forming in the trough line.
53 knot gusts at 9pm Freeride. BOM has raised that forecast now but they are still under.
Except for a mild case of surfer crowd horror, it is a nice photo.
