South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 16th February)

Best Days: Unsure at this stage: won't be any shortage of swell all week - getting very large Thurs/Fri - but winds are going to be an issue. Major improvement expected over the weekend (light wind/good weather/easing swell) but bank status will be unknown until we cast our eyes over it.

Recap: Strong but easing trade swell over the weekend with plenty of unreal waves across the regional points. 

This week (Feb 17 - 20)

We’re probably looking at the most active week of the summer swell season so far. Mainly due to the fact that we’ve just had a week of strong persistent trade swell, with more than a week or more to come, plus the added bonus of a big short range swell in the mix.

So, let’s take a look at the synoptic. A broad high pressure system over New Zealand, and a deepening tropical depression north of New Caledonia, tightening about an axis point just south of the French colony. An active monsoon trough stretches to the north-west through the Coral Sea, with a Tropical Low located in the Gulf of Carpentaria (likely to develop into a Tropical Cyclone over the next day or two). It’s the quintessential Queensland weather chart for the surfing population.

The trades north of New Zealand did weaken a little over the weekend but started to muscle up late yesterday and have continued through today. In fact the axis point mentioned above is slightly retrograding (i.e. tracking westward) as it intensifies. This is very important for swell production, because under the right kinds of circumstances these kinds of fetches can enhance wave heights about theoretical norms, often known as a ‘captured fetch’. 

It’s worth pointing out that the established trade flow (without this enhancement) is already very impressive and would ordinarily be worth an easy 4ft or more at most open beaches. But the retrograding fetch adds a little more size potential, as does a south-westward tracking Tropical Low that’s expected to slowly intensify within the Coral Sea monsoon trough on Tuesday and Wednesday. As it tracks south it will strength the easterly pressure gradient further.

The general consensus of most computer models is that all of these systems will converge on a point roughly in the vicinity of the SE Qld region (anywhere between Byron and Fraser Island) later Thursday or Friday. Although eventual surf size will be dependent on how strong core wind strengths develop close to the coast, it’s a pretty safe bet that it’s going to be very size by week’s end - probably upwards of 8-10ft at exposed locations, possibly more. 

However, local winds will be a problem, at least for a short while. Fresh SE winds mid-week (with smaller surf) will swing strong E’ly through Thursday, maybe even E/NE or NE (on Friday) as the Coral Sea Tropical Low (perhaps a cyclone by this time?) draws near the coast.

Fortunately, model guidance is reasonably confident that the conglomerate of these systems will then continue to track southwards over the weekend as a closed, cut-off system. This means two key factors: an early peak and then steady decline in surf size, and a clockwise swing in the wind direction to the southern, then western quadrant. However this probably won’t occur until Saturday so until then we'll have some quality issues to deal with.

So, the short story for this week will be residual trade swell on Tuesday (2-3ft most open beaches) ahead of a steady increase in overlapping swell trains from Wednesday onwards - with multiple swell trains in the water, the ocean state will be very confused. And with gusty winds swinging E’ly then E/NE later in the week you’ll certainly have your work cut out looking for somewhere sheltered, especially with such a large swell on hand. 

Let’s check back in on Wednesday - with some luck we may see an earlier-than-currently-modeled window of favourable winds to develop. And remember - these ‘favourable winds’ will happen further north to begin with, with the whole progression tracking south. 

This weekend (Feb 21 - 22)

Not much point regurgitating what I’ve gone through above. But to recap: starting off rather solid (possibly large, especially across southern regions), but mainly a rapidly easing combo of easterly swells with winds tending clockwise through Saturday, then going variable Sunday. 

Aside from the regular pointbreaks, it’s hard to know whether there will be options at open beaches as the swell fades because this event currently has ‘bank buster’ all over it. But there won't be any shortage of swell. Let’s re-evaluate on Wednesday. 

Next week (Feb 23 onwards)  

Aside from a continuing easing trend from the system discussed at length above, there’s nothing much of interest in the long term charts. Although, our far eastern swell window (east of NZ) is modelled to maintain some trade activity, which should keep the open beaches ticking along int he absence of any other meaningful swell next week. See you Wednesday.