South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 26th December)

Best Days: Sat PM: going out on a limb, but there'll probably be a window of good waves through Saturday afternoon - I'm pegging it to be north of Ballina and south of the Gold Coast. Otherwise most days should see a steady supply of small but workable E'ly swell across the entire region (you'll just have to work around local winds)

Recap: The expected long range east swell has been a bit of an under performer, with set waves only reaching 2ft across open stretches. Northerly winds have also spoiled conditions for the most part, although some regions have seen early nor’westers.

This weekend (Dec 27 - 28)

The computer models have been shifting around the position of the weekend’s North Coast ridge, so the corresponding forecast now has a little less confidence than a few days ago. The main issue right here and now is that the models are split as to whether the ridge will push over the border (EC keeps the ridge just south of the border, but ACCESS and GFS push it just north). 

Also uncertain is what will happen on Sunday - most models gradually slide the ridge south, but some models weaken it whilst others (EC) form a closed low that hugs the coast in a fast southward trajectory.

Either way the surf forecast is broadly much the same as Wednesday, although I don’t think we’ll see quite as much (junky) short range swell - from the ridge - as previously thought. And with low confidence on where the ridge is going to be positioned, it’s hard to know exactly which coast will pick up the biggest waves from this source (say 3-4ft+ sets).

Otherwise, we’re looking at a slow, steady intermittent east swell motoring along across all regions - based on today’s average performance, I’ve pegged back wave heights to 2ft+ at remaining open beaches (i.e. much of the Gold and Sunshine Coasts) both days.

If we’re lucky, the best region for waves will be just north of the ridge where local winds won’t be too strong but we’ll hopefully see a northward spread of swell from this near source (say, 3ft+ sets?).

If I had to take a punt as to where this scenario might eventuate, I think Saturday afternoon north of about Ballina but south of about the Gold Coast is the most likely coastline. Anywhere south of this region is at a much greater risk of fresh SE winds, north of this region is at risk of not picking up any short range SE swell off the ridge. I'll be very interested to see what happens.

Through Sunday expect the local SE swell off the ridge to ease quickly in size, leaving just residual long range east trade swell with a return to NE winds about most coastal regions north of Coffs Harbour - but probably light and variable early morning. South of Coffs, we’ll probably see initially fresh SE winds as the ridge moves south, tending moderate NE later. Aim for an early surf for the best waves.

Next week (Dec 29 onwards)

Monday looks to see a couple of feet of inconsistent E/NE swell from the stationary trade belt north and north-east of New Zealand however we’re expecting a return to freshening northerly winds, which will probably write off surf prospects at most locations from early-mid morning onwards. Any short range influence from the weekend's ridge is expected to have vanished by this time (barring an unexpected about-face from the computer models, whch I suppose can't be completely ruled out either).

On Tuesday, a gusty southerly change will push along the southern NSW coast and N’ly winds are expected to swing NW ahead of it - there won’t be much new swell aside from the same intermittent long range E’ly energy - but as winds veer counter clockwise there should be some options at open beaches. Keep your expectations low though.

This southerly change is not expected to impact the Northern NSW or SE Qld regions in a great way (other than a shallow wind change) however it’ll be associated with a broader LWT passage, which means we'll see a couple of frontal systems track through our immediate south swell window, resulting in a couple of days of waves rather than a single afternoon pulse (as is often the case).

Therefore, we’re expecting plenty of small south swell through Wednesday (and maybe even early Thursday) at south facing beaches in Northern NSW - probably up to 2-3ft - however local winds will probably spoil conditions here. A building ridge should supply some short range SE swell into the mix, and this will probably benefit the semi-exposed points of SE Qld the most. And there'll be a continuing supply of small trade swell from our friendly long range source. Stay tuned for later updates on this as we firm up the details through next week.

Elsewhere, there’s nothing significant lining up on the long term charts apart from a developing ridge across the Northern Tasman Sea mid-next week that should be a source of small east swell later next week and into the following weekend. Hopefully next week will shed some light on the possibilities of a decent New Year swell!