South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 12th December)

Best Days: Sat/Sun: strong SE swell with great waves across semi-exposed points. Mon: smaller, easing swell with good winds early. Late Tues/Wed: another shot of E/SE swell but winds are tricky.

Recap: Small residual swells on Thursday with a wide range in conditions - light winds tending moderate N/NE in SE Qld, fresh and gusty N’lies in Northern NSW, and light N’lies with a gusty S’ly early arvo change along the Mid North Coast. Despite the much-earlier-than-expected arrival of the southerly change, wave heights have built somewhat reasonably inline with forecast expectations - we’re now seeing solid 6ft+ sets at exposed beaches in Northern NSW, but surf size is much smaller in SE Qld (mainly due to the initial S’ly direction) - there are 3ft+ sets at D’Bah, but it’s only 1-2ft on the points and as yet the Sunny Coast seems to be very small too, just a couple of feet tops.

This weekend (Dec 13th - 14th)

It’s no surprise that surf size in SE Qld isn’t very big right now. Most of the swell we’re currently seeing is short range southerly energy, as the primary fetch hasn’t quite moved into southern Queensland’s swell window just yet.

It is however doing this right now so we should see an upwards trend overnight, with most of Saturday expected to display strong SE swells across all regions.

Wave heights will vary in size depending on exposure, and with gusty S/SE winds on hand the weekend’s waves will mainly favour protected points. Exposed beaches in Northern NSW are looking at choppy 6ft+ surf through much of Saturday, but semi-exposed points should pull in a reasonable amount of size, somewhere in the 4-6ft range (protected points will be two or three feet smaller than this).

North of Byron, surf size will be smaller, up to a wind affected 5-6ft at exposed beaches but mainly 3-4ft+ across the more popular semi-exposed points of SE Qld (that'll be handling the wind better). If you’re considering the Noosa region, keep your expectations in check - the weekend's swell direction will only favour the outer bays, and it’ll be tiny across the inner points. 

Surf size will ease slowly through Sunday, probably in the order of a foot or two during the day, but local winds will also throttle back - in fact we should see localised areas of light SW winds (mainly the southern Gold Coast and parts of Northern NSW) in the morning. So despite the smaller surf there should be a few more options to pick and choose from. Looking very good overall, especially after a couple of months of annoying northerlies!

Next week (Dec 15th - 19th)

Monday looks pretty good too. We’re looking at light offshore winds and weak afternoon sea breezes as the Tasman Low retreats to the east, relaxing the pressure gradient across the coastal margin. Surf size will continue a slow downwards trend but exposed beaches in Northern NSW should still see early 3-4ft+ sets. It’ll be smaller in SE Qld, around 3ft+ at open beaches with inconsistent 2ft+ sets across semi-exposed points.

On Tuesday the synoptic flow will gradually swing to the north (nooooo!) as a southerly change advances along the southern NSW coast. Early morning should see light variable conditions with clean residual waves at exposed beaches, and only the Lower Mid North Coast will see any strength in the afternoon NE airstream. So, there should be fun waves around for the most part.

Late in the day, we may see the arrival of a secondary pulse of swell from the same Tasman Low generating this current energy. Except, it will have originated from a mild intensification off the West Coast of New Zealand’s North Island through Sunday and Monday. Surf size won’t be large from this source - perhaps some inconsistent 3ft to almost 4ft sets at exposed beaches in Northern NSW, with smaller 2ft to perhaps 3ft waves at exposed beaches in SE Qld.

This timing is a little tricky to have confidence in, for two reasons. Firstly, it’s likely to reach a peak overnight Tuesday (before easing through Wednesday) and secondly, the mid-week gusty southerly change will create tricky conditions at exposed beaches on Wednesday (there probably won’t be enough size or consistency for anything amazing across the semi-exposed points than enjoy fresh southerlies).

In any case, we’ll take a closer look at the data on Monday to see how this fetch fares over the weekend, and whether we’ll see a window of opportunity late Tuesday (with the nor’easter) or early Wednesday (with fresh southerlies).

Wednesday’s southerly change will whip up a short lived but probably punchy south swell for south facing beaches in Northern NSW during the afternoon. Otherwise, the rest of the week looks like seeing easing swells with clean conditions (Thursday) ahead of a complex troughy pattern advancing from the south later Friday with another possible gusty southerly change that will probably influence next weekend's surf potential too. More on that in Monday’s update.