South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 8th December)

Best Days: Tricky period ahead. Peaky beachbreaks in around several wind changes, mainly benefiting the Mid North Coast Tues/Wed. End of the week has some possibilities for semi-exposed points as a low forms off the East Coast. Next week also has potential tfor some good surf.

Recap: The weekend performed better than expected, mainly across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW. In general, most locations saw freshening northerly winds however locations from the Sunny Coast the about Yamba saw light NW winds for a much longer period early morning than had been anticipated (only N/NW was expected too), which created smoother conditions. And wave heights came in a little higher than expected, up to 3-4ft at some exposed beaches. Brief pockets of favourable winds were also reported elsewhere (usually with the passage of thunderstorms). Freshening N’ly winds have generally returned most beaches to a choppy state today - however we’ve just seen a recent W’ly wind change across both the Gold and Sunshine Coasts with the passage of thunderstorm activity (winds have gone S/SW in Byron, for the same reason). Northerlies will return over the coming hours though.

This week (Dec 9th - 12th)

Another complex week of waves and winds ahead. A shallow southerly change is expected to advance along the Mid North Coast Tuesday morning, but it’ll probably peter out by the time it reaches Yamba.

Ahead of the change winds are expected to be variable about the Mid North Coast but a ridge across the southern Coral Sea will maintain a northerly flow about SE Qld and Far Northern NSW. We should see an early N/NW trend at some locations but there’s likely to be plenty of leftover wobble on top from moderate to fresh cross-shore breezes overnight.

As for surf, Tuesday will see mix of easing trade swell and peaky short range NE windswell, with sets in the 3ft range at exposed beaches from the Sunny Coast down to about Yamba. South of here surf size will become smaller, and unfortunately we’re not looking at much new swell in the wake of the southerly change. Easing swells are expected throughout the day.

So the best surf on Tuesday will probably be along the Northern NSW coast south of Byron, where winds should initially be light and variable,  but once the change pushes through you’ll have to scoot into a southern corner.

Wednesday will then see residual swells - mainly from the east, around 2ft+ at open beaches - with light variable winds tending NE into the afternoon and freshening as another trough develops off the southern NSW coast.  

This developing trough looks like it will finally break the recent pattern of persistent northerly winds across the East Coast. A small low (low chance of an ECL, but let’s wait and see) is expected to form somewhere within the trough (off southern NSW) in the early hours of Thursday morning, but the timing is not agreed upon across the model runs right now so we need a high degree of elasticity in the forecast.

So Thursday is a very tricky day to forecast for surf-wise. A gusty N’ly airstream off the southern Qld and Far Northern NSW coasts into Thursday will generate a low quality windswell for the region, but it’s hard to get a grip on the broader local winds as it’s all contingent on where, how and when the surface low develops. At some point gusty S/SE winds will push along the coast but this may not happen until Friday morning. So Thursday could be a mixed bag of everything. Let’s wait to see what Wednesday’s model data uncovers.

As for Friday, the latest guidance is suggesting strengthening SE winds and a rapidly building short range swell across the Mid North Coast, spreading northwards during the day as the low broadens and moves north-east, taking shape in the central Tasman Sea. 

This should favour the semi-exposed points nicely through the afternoon, as long as you choose a location that can handle a bit of wind. Again, we’ll need a few more days to firm things up but at this stage, 4-6ft sets at exposed beaches in Northern NSW isn't out of the equation by the end of the day. Hopefully the computer models will maintain this trajectory over the coming days.

Also worth mentioning is a small SE groundswell due in the Northern NSW mix on Friday, originating from a small low modelled to form off the SW tip of New Zealand’s South Island mid-week. It’ll be buried under the short range noise but given the complexity of the forecast period ahead, you never know if it might come in handy. 

This weekend (Dec 13th - 14th)

The Tasman Low looks like it’ll remain a firm synoptic feature through this period, the most likely scenario being a broad SE fetch stretching north-west from New Zealand’s West Coast up into the southern Coral Sea. 

If this plays out as expected, we’ll see strong SE swells for Saturday, easing through Sunday, and conditions should be great for the semi-exposed points with a mainly south-west tending south-east airstream.

Early estimates for Saturday are in the 4-6ft range across open beaches in Northern NSW, and 3-4ft across open beaches in SE Qld, with smaller surf expected through Sunday. Let’s give it a few more days to firm up the specifics but right now it’s shaping up very nicely for weekend warriors.

Longer term (Dec 15th onwards)

Next week has some really interesting possibilities. The latest model guidance is showing a deepening E/SE fetch off the West Coast of New Zealand’s North Island over the weekend, one of my favourite swell windows (see below).

It’s still quite a long shot but right now there’s a reasonable chance that we’ll see a fresh, solid SE groundswell pushing through early next week (say late Monday, or early Tuesday). I’ll take another pass at this in Wednesday’s update, but for now the long term period through the weekend and early next week looks very active for all East Coast surfers.