Northerlies set to continue until next Thursday
South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 3rd December)
Best Days: No great days due to the northerly winds. Which is a shame as a fun east swell is due over the weekend.
Recap: Small surf and northerlies.
This week (Dec 4th-5th)
It’s a broken record for the short term outlook - small surf and northerly winds. Is there any point in embellishing it further?
Your northerly routine should be well oiled by now, and no amount of fancy wording can improve what’s otherwise a pretty bleak outlook.
This weekend (Dec 6th-7th)
I’ll admit it - I’ve had hopes for some time that this very complex troughy pattern would spawn something of interest in the Tasman Sea for East Coast surfers.
It's certainly happened many times in the past, against long term model guidance. But the latest updates refuses to budge from the song sheet - that is, more northerly winds and small surf for the weekend in all regions.
We’ll actually see a little more size over the weekend as a new trade swell fills into the region with occasional 3ft sets in most areas (on top of a smaller pre-existing NE windswell), but the only chance for a decent wave will be north of about the Byron coast early morning, when there’s likely to be a smidge N/NW in the wind (as opposed to straight N’ly, or N/NE). But this is likely to be an incremental improvement at best, and is not worth too much attention.
Unless you’ve got a reliable spot that can handle an incessant northerly wind, I really wouldn’t get too excited about the weekend.
Long term (Dec 8th onwards)
Looks like we can expect a similar outlook through next week as what we’ve seen this week; that is, an unstable troughy pattern with northerly winds up until about Thursday when a southerly change is due.
Surf wise, we’ll see a mix of small trade swells and local NE windswell but there are no significant features on the charts right now. Sorry!
Comments
Still feeling it Dawg?
3 foot on the weekend, FR? yeah... Still feeling it.... Your original stance was " no hope for good surf" in the mid term.... My argument was that 3 foot surf can be considered in the "good surf category", and that I'd rather this synoptic setup than a bland dry northerly airstream that your region can experience at this time of year (pre wet season) - Hot dry days - nw to ne winds - unridable 1 foot slop.... So, yeah, I still reckon a nice 3 foot bank is on offer this weekend... Some of the backbeaches could be quite fun..... Don't have to "go right" all the time ;) Timing the glass offs during rain will be the issue....
I see another site has a "prime swell" even bigger than what I reckon..... They've got it ("prime swell") at 5 to 6 foot..... I think that's pushing the envelope........
Still stand by this: "Really fun 3 foot sat/sun..... Glassy, perhaps even offshore at time around Byron thanks to trough...."
Cause I'm still standing by this: "If it's more 2ft crowded sideshore backbeaches with a million cunts out because it's the weekend I'll merely sigh and go fishing.
tbh, as I've said, I see super inconsistent, like one three foot set every half hour , buried in a NE windswell and 20knot northerlies."
Pretty massive difference between the two calls.
Yeah well you are due for a win... ;) Fetch is starting to ramp up, though......
Yeah, ASCAT looks better today. Problem is that fetch is now retreating. Already most of it is on the wrong side of New Cal.
We'l see some three foot sets. Probably about one every half hour. That should divide up nicely between a few hundred desperadoes.
"Problem is that fetch is now retreating. Already most of it is on the wrong side of New Cal."
In what universe is that fetch on the wrong side of New Cal??? Most of it is south, se, and ese of New Cal.... here's tonights map...
Glass 1/2 empty, my jewfish murdering friend ;) ....... You're a natural foot, right..... It can be fun going left sometimes... Hmmm. Surfing right hand points is slowing you down...... :p
what are you talking about homes. What longitude is the high located in?
Where is most of the fetch off the norther flank located? East of New Cal.
You want a twenty knot tradewind fetch on the W of New Cal inside the Coral sea.
Been going left all fcuking spring. Would like these northerlies to fcuk right off.
Peace.
I hope I'm wrong.... I really do .... I hope you're right and the surf is shit..... ;)
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=brisbane_wave
There are several spots I don't mind on a lid* with 3'E and N winds on the SC, weekend crowds suck tho. YMMV. I think people get sour because the GC is very very limited in terms of options. Especially if you don't include the beachies technically not on the GC at either end (only one works in these conditions).
Plenty of spots south of the GC too.
Maybe I just don't 'get' the goldie?
* Many of them aren't so great stand up.
blow-in the problem isn't just the lack of options away from the northerlies (there are a few around) or that the banks in these spots can be fickle, but that in spring all traces of a reasonable swell disappear. It's just months on end of wispy wind chop. So even if you take the drive to get out of the wind, chances are you still won't be getting good waves.
You have reefs and /or rock assisted banks on the SC. Ditto south of the border. This means you rely less on the banks.
ha ben can work this out i am going to crescent head punch in port macquarie forecast close enough to crescent and it says 3 to 6 ft fri to tuesday but forecater notes north coast says crap small please eductae me on this one what am i expecting there buddy i arrive friday for a week
Peter - there's also 20-30kts of northerly winds in the mix too. How many locations in the Port Macquarie region can handle that, regardless of the swell?
As for the predicted surf size, the model is overexaggerating the windswell component - but there'll be plenty of waves around.
Check the chart below (it's under the graph on the forecast page) - you can see that the N/NE windswell component is alternating between the primary and secondary swell trains. Additionally, the model seems to be struggling to resolve all of the swell trains in the mix - there's an E/NE component, and a couple of NE and N/NE components too, but they're disappearing and reappearing with each timestep. All making it very complex to discern an overall swell trend during these days.
You can see that the Sunday 12am and 6pm values see a massive jump in the N/NE windswell (up from 1.6m to 2.9m, and up from 1.9m to 2.9m) - this is most likely related to the fetch's immediate position off the coast that's forecast to strengthen and ease at various times throughout the period. So as it strengthens, it generates larger wave heights - but in this case the wave model's not doing a particularly good job (probably due to the close proximity of the fetch to the data point - the swells are unable to resolve properly in such a short distance).
As for surf size: casting a quick eye over the data, I'd ignore the 5-6ft references from the model and estimate NE facing beaches will ebb and flow in the 3-4ft range throughout this period. However, they will be very wind affected. So, locations that can handle the wind will be much smaller, say 2ft+. Maybe a few bigger waves at times but overall very peaky and generally lacking in strength.
thx so much for a detailed response a little hard to work out
I reckon, if one can find a sheltered back beach, out of the wind and the junky N'ly windswell, Sunday morning looks damn good fun IMO with that E/NE swell. And I'm calling 3-4ft on Sunday based on latest forecasts.
I think your model outputs are overcooking it for Sunday/Monday. They're combining the N'ly windswell and E/NE tradewind swells.
There's two pumping spots in those conditions but probably shouldn't name it, would be trouble in the House of Windsor if I did.
2 spots?...... I can think of 6 at my old haunt... 1 near a capital city, a marginal spot on the goldy, and at least a handful south of the border....
6 spots spread between a few thousand surfers, maybe tens of thousands if you count all the weekend warriors from Brisso.
Anyway I got a little hidey hole. It'll b wind affected but punchy lefts.
Fucking hell dawg how's a man expected to get through the silly season with sanity intact. Any room down in Tas?
Funny you bring Tassie up, fr..... Maybe it's a perception thing... You see, down here, everything is "an effort".... So maybe after 5 years of 4/3, bootys, gloves, hoods, driving, walking through farmland, gales, snow and hail, I may have a different "perception" of "good surf" lol ... An easily accessible 3 foot back beach, boadies and a rashy , someone to hoot when I take a late drop, a shower at the public dunnies, and a takeaway round the corner sounds pretty good ;)
hear you loud and clear there. Anyhow, winds backed right off and semi-glassed off. Just rode a few fun lefts with no-one out.
Gotta love that.
Yep I heard a beach near your local was very very fun and clean this morning Steve.
What's that you say? semi-glassed off? Isn't that what SD called and you bagged the sh1t outta him?
Hahah just a brief respite from wind following a heavy shower
No boardies and a rashie this weekend SD....Those N'ly's will drag the arse end out of the water temps!!
Will I need to bring the 4/3? ;)
Booties too. The waters that cold it even made the news tonight!!! Lol.
This is possibly the most anticipated swell event of the year...
Nah,, the localised 2 foot swell back in autumn that was argued over whether it was east swell, an east north east swell, or north east swell was definitely a stand out.....
Top 3 at least.
Last night my Girlfriend and I were sitting at the table, eating the meal she had prepared. Neither of us spoke. We just chewed and swallowed, a sullen silence cloying the air. It had been this way for so long.
Timidly she asked, 'How is your dinner?'
I put my fork down and glared at her. 'It's fucking ash'.
She flinched at my words, her mouth working to find a reply, hurt clawing at her heart.
'Well?', I asked. 'Fucking say something'.
But there were no words, at least not from her mouth. Her eyes on the other hand implored me - begged me - to stop. They told me of her fear and her hurt and her love, and how it was all too much for her heart to bear.
Rage flared up in me. I screamed through gritted teeth, launching my plate at the wall. It shattered, and a mess of mashed potato and steak slid towards the floor.
Instead of fleeing, she ran to me, throwing her arms around my neck, burying her face into my chest.
She was sobbing.
'Please, stop. Just stop. I love you. Please stop.'
I could feel her hot tears spilling down my chest.
I realised I could feel my own tears running down my face, and with it my anger cracked and fell away.
I wrapped my arms around her and began sobbing into her sweet hair, harder than I had in years.
'I'm sorry babe. I'm so sorry,' I sobbed. ‘It’s just… It’s just…’
She looked up and me, and I down at her.
‘…the periods have been so low for so long'.
Shame Swellnet doesn't have a 'like' button.
Wee rise in swell on the Moffats cam Sheepy.
Yeah.. A slight kick in Sig' height... An extra second on period too.....
http://www.qld.gov.au/environment/coasts-waterways/beach/waves-sites/cal...
LIKE!
swell kicked a little nth sunny coast this arvo good 3ft sets and longer lines than the last little while.NNE wind killed it on the open beachies .Hey look to the North,cloud 9 must be pumping?
fuck, i moved to sunny for 6 months to get currimundi and kings, got shit, come back here and got crap with millions out, little wonder i have had to now officially retire, watch, the waves will start to pump again, and if they do, enjoy one for me will ya boys, dave's surfing carreer over, would have loved to have a crack at cloudbreak though, even one good one would have been enough, thank god for imaginations hey=or go pro's- happy surfing chargers
Fucken Dribble Dave
When will the weekend forecast be up?
Would you ever consider a lid, JimmyB? Or is your neck totalled?
calves cramp, will try swimming with flippers first, but body surf the go big jim, hey welly, 0499583859 if u home- text, i check at night, love to do surfari with welly monster and i can take photos now, probably besy bet