South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 12th November)

Best Days: Thurs AM: good mix of south and east swells with early NW winds. Aim for the beachbreaks.

Recap: Slowly building E’ly swell that still seems to be reaching a peak with 3-4ft sets now visible across SE Qld, smaller south of about Yamba. A S’ly groundswell is also building across the coast and is expected to reach a peak on Thursday. 

This week (Nov 13-14)

*brief notes this afternoon as I’m on the road*

Thursday is the pick of the forecast period, mainly due to a strengthening northerly airstream that’s going to ruin conditions at most locations from Friday thru’ the weekend.

The existing east swell should maintain its current size through Thursday morning before easing into the afternoon and onwards, and today's building south swell should reach a peak on Thursday somewhere between 3ft and maybe 5ft at reliable south swell magnets in Northern NSW (with smaller surf elsewhere)

However you will need to surf early Thursday as a brief period of light NW winds after dawn are expected to freshen from the NE during the day.

Friday looks like a write off at all locations excluding well protected northern corners in Northern NSW (they’ll still pick up a small secondary pulse of S’ly swell with 2-3ft+ sets at exposed south swell magnets). We may also see a small NE windswell build through Friday however it will be low in quality.

This weekend (Nov 15-16)

Northerly winds will really make it hard to find good surf this weekend. As it is there won’t be much surf on offer, the dominant source will be local northerly windswell, with sets of perhaps 2-3ft at exposed NE facing beaches, possibly both days. Current guidance has pushed this fetch a little further north so the SE Qld/Far Northern NSW coast may end up seeing the most size (although it’s hard to get excited about the accompanying conditions). 

A small southerly groundswell may also make an appearance on Sunday - thanks to a strong frontal passage through the southern Tasman on Friday - but it’s poorly aligned within our swell window, so there won’t be much size in it at all.

There is a chance that the Mid North Coast may see more variable winds for brief period over the weekend, as the models are not resolving the pattern ahead of a gusty front expected to cross the coast Sunday afternoon (leading to a S’ly wind change in Northern NSW Sunday night) but for the most part you’d be best advised to keep your expectations low as the threat of an overarching northerly airstream is still quite prominent in general. 

Long term (Nov 17 onwards)

Much of the same for the longer term with coastal troughy patterns and a a series of cold fronts moving through the southern Tasman Sea early next week. So our swell prospects look to be small south swells (in Northern NSW) for a few days, with intermittent pulses of small short range NE windswells. And bugger all in SE Qld. More on this in Friday’s notes.