South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 15th October)

Best Days: Thursday: good condtions in the morning with an early peak in S'ly swell (again, very small in SE Qld away from the swell magnets). Friday: small clean residual swell at exposed beaches in Northern NSW in the morning. Tuesday: small east swell.

Recap: Some good beachies around on Tuesday working around a funky wind regime - the W'ly change hit Byron Bay around 4:30pm (close to expectations) but some other regions saw the change earlier. Today's seen a small combo of fading NE and building S'ly swells although it's difficult to work out how this swell is propagating north: it's huge in Newcastle and Sydney (where the ECL is directing most of the swell) and the Crowdy Head buoy - between Forster and Port Macquarie - is picking up a reasonable percentage of south swell (Hsig 3m with Tsig pushing 12 seconds earlier today). However the Coffs buoy is picking up a much smaller percentage of size (decent swell periods but swell heights only 1m). There are 3-4ft sets visible on our surf cam (which faces due south) but it appears that Port Macquarie may be the northern-most extent of the south swell right at the present time. Will be worth monitoring the buoys overnight.

This week (Oct 16-17 onwards)

Hmmm. As described above, it's a complex situation on the North Coast with this developing south swell. However it's quite possible that the new energy is simply lagging a few hours behind model predictions, so I'm not going to write off Thursday's surf potential across the region at all.

In fact with light variable winds and sea breezes across the entire coast, I think there's a very good chance that we'll see some great waves in Northern NSW on Thursday (sorry SE Qld - it'll be tiny once again due to the acute southerly swell direction, only south swell magnets will pick up anything rideable).

However, I can't sit on the fence - so in making a call I've slightly pulled back Monday's estimates. Exposed south facing beaches south of Byron should see good 4-5ft surf on Thursday, with much smaller waves at beaches not completely open to the south. It's a little smaller than what our automated model is calling but based on the evidence thus far, I'd prefer to undercall than overcall. 

North from Byron, size will drop off significantly on Thursday. Open beaches along the Tweed Coast should see occasional 2-3ft sets but it'll barely crack a foot or two at most Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast beaches, however the handful of south swell magnets north of the border may pick up a stray 2-3ft set or two. Get in early before the sea breeze kicks in, and smaller waves are likely through the afternoon.

Friday will see smaller surf again as the south swell continues to fade, and early light winds will give way to a shallow S/SE change sweeping northwards from about lunchtime onwards (which may not reach the North Coast until mid-late afternoon). Only exposed south swell magnet south of Byron will see any appreciable surf on Friday (2-3ft sets) however there'll also be a tiny, infrequent east swell in the water generated by a modest fetch north of New Zealand. This should maintain borderline surfable conditions throughout open SE Qld beaches and along the Tweed Coast.

This weekend (Oct 18-19)

Still nothing major on the cards for the weekend at this stage. A building ridge along the Queensland coast will direct moderate to occasionally fresh SE winds north from Coffs Harbour on Saturday, with lighter winds to the south. 

Surf wise, we'll see a small south swell across the region on Saturday, generated by a minor fetch in the lee of Friday's change, but it won't be very big - just the occasional 2ft set at south facing beaches along the Northern NSW coast. Smaller surf is expected elsewhere, and I don't think the Coral Sea ridge will have enough strength to whip up much more than a couple of feet of low quality surf for SE Qld either.

Sunday morning should be much cleaner on the surface in most regions as the ridge weakens and light winds envelop the coast however freshening NE sea breezes are expected into the afternoon. Wave heights will remain very small, but will include the arrival of a small east swell generated by a distant E'ly fetch developing north of New Zealand. At this stage I don't think we'll see much more than a couple of feet at best.

Long term (Oct 20 onwards)

Next week doesn't have much excitement on the cards at this stage. A gusty southerly change is due into the Lower Mid North Coast mid-morning Monday (and mid-afternoon on the North Coast), and freshening NE winds ahead of the change could whip up a tiny NE windswell for the start of the week (keep your expectations low though).

Only a small south swell is expected behind the change at this stage, so our focus will swing to our eastern swell window where we're expecting a new E'ly swell to arrive into the afternoon, ahead of a peak on Tuesday.  This swell will be generated by a developing trough south of Fiji over the coming days (see below), however it's a long, long way from our coastline so set waves will be very inconsistent. Current guidance suggests infrequent 2-3ft sets at exposed beaches but I'll take another pass at this on Friday with the availability of updated satellite data.

Otherwise, we're looking at a general coastal troughy pattern for the rest of the week with most of our surf prospects likely to originate from local fetches. Could be a good time to consider over activities, or other coastlines. But more on that in Friday's notes.