Extended period of mediocrity ahead
South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 6th October)
Best Days: Wednesday: small NE swell in Northern NSW with a brief period of OK winds ahead of a gusty S/SE change. But really we're clutching at straws here.
Recap: The weekend’s much anticipated south swell was somewhat of a fizzer, right across the East Coast. Whilst a handful of south swell magnets picked up a few bombs, almost everywhere fell short of size expectations. Fresh NE tending N’ly winds on Saturday ruined conditions at all but the most protected spots however early NW winds provided a window of cleaner surf on Sunday as the south swell slowly abated in size. Freshening N’ly tending NE winds have accompanied a further drop in S’ly swell today.
This week (Oct 7-10)
Nothing amazing expected this week at all. We’re looking at a period of mainly local swell sources, related to strengthening winds about the coastal margin - a small NE swell building on Tuesday followed by a small S/SE swell later Wednesday and into Thrusday as a trough advances across the region - but no great size is expected, and the peak of these meagre events will be accompanied by poor local winds.
At this stage, the best of the week is likely to be very early Wednesday morning along the Northern NSW coast, before southerly winds envelop the coast in the wake of the trough. A small NE windswell generated Tuesday may provide a stray 2ft sets at exposed south swell magnets but it won’t last long.
Unfortunately, SE Qld won’t see much size from this source and the small S/SE swell trailing the change won’t provide much size for Thursday either. As such we’re looking at an extended period of mediocrity right across the region. Get some work done instead!
This weekend (Oct 11-12)
Nothing of major interest expected for this weekend right now. All swell windows are expected to remain relatively quiet so it looks like both days will see very small residual swell at exposed beaches. Let’s see if Wednesday’s model update things more favourably.
Long term (Oct 13 onwards)
The long term computer models don’t have much to get excited about right now - a possible strong frontal passage early Monday morning with a subsequent short range southerly swell through into Tuesday and maybe Wednesday, but that’s hardly out of the ordinary for any time of the year.
One area I will be keeping a close eye on this week though is the central/northern Tasman Sea. The small trough I mentioned that’s due to be positioned off the Lower Mid North Coast early Wednesday morning is forecast to slowly track eastwards though the end of the week, before stalling north-west of New Zealand’s North Island later in the week.
At this stage there’s a suggestion that this trough could slowly intensify into a reasonable swell producing system over the weekend; in fact there’s a reasonable chance that early next week could see some notable developments south of Fiji as the trough interacts with some tropical activity further north.
As such, if I were to go out on a limb, I’d speculate that next week may see a decent easterly swell about the East Coast, probably from about mid-next week through into the following weekend. Let’s keep a close eye on proceedings over the coming days to see what happens.
Comments
For the area I like to frequent, the calls and reports were not inaccurate, even a tad under called & reported.
I really wanna know the answer to this too btw: Is it normal for a set of waves to have different periods between each wave? e.g: wave one - 16sec - two - 16 - three - 15 - four - 13 - five.
Cheers, anyone.
Thanks for the feedback Mitch.
As for your question - depends on what you're looking at.
A 'set of waves' should all display the same period. However, this is not to discount the possibility of overlapping swell trains, and thus, the concurrent appearance of differering swell periods during a period of activity that could be defined as a 'set'.
But your example (whereby each successive wave in a set of waves exhibits a smaller swell period than the previous) is not true, to the best of my knowledge.
No worries. Yeah cheers, as I suspected; what I observed must be down to two things. I read in forecast notes for Sydney Hunter that there would be a series of swell trains building in period, as seen on the MHL buoys. Seondly, the distance and distribution of sub-aerial and shallow water sand that the waves have to travel by and over. I don't really wanna give any more detail cos literally hundreds of people were walking past it every day... I think also the fact that the surf changed with the tide, supports my comment above.
Another thing to keep an eye on is the development of a potential inland low near Birdsville...... 12th/13th onwards.... Some models have a strong infeed of moist easterlies, with a chance of a related low forming off NSW later that week.....
BTW Doggie skipped straight past your old joint, didn't even consider the 'end of the track' either... Just went straight out at the most obvious spot, saw a good set when I rocked up! Crowd was there, but pretty cruisey, plenty of room for everyone to share.
EDIT: obviously I surfed at more than 1 spot the last 1/2 week. But yeah took a chance on the ones that got out and up past mf's place of origin, if you know what I mean.
Mitch, from what I saw, and What I've been told, that little ese/se swell from the nz low was quite fun on Friday morning... " 'end of the track' "...... Your referring to a certain creek right? ........ There's another spot, north of where the "originals" play music, but south of where you cast your fishing rod away..... After heavy rains, great high tide banks....
SD, your cryptic clues are terrible. But hilarious all the same. Keep 'em coming!
Hmmm, a compliment and a bitchslap all in one hit...... Nice..... ;)
Haha yup, maybe I should've hunted around for a good bank, not just good enough, cos it got quite fun and then some after low tide. I think that's what differentiated it from the S swell generated on Thurs, which remained fun.
yeah, if they ever do a remake of Yes Minister, old sheepy is a certainty for the spin doctor role
hahaha.... And you'd do a great Frank in Shameless.......
Ben, an interesting forecast map, highlighting inland low..... And Mick free, if you are out there, note the forecasted NZ east coast low.... More kiwi magic maybe? ;)
I just got back haha gee be on for some Gizzy action
Definitely some "troughy" business happening next week.... Inland low may interact with southern low.... Looks like a dogs breakfast..... NSW Farmers might be happy... Oh hang on, farmers are never happy ;)
Got swamped with things yesterday and ran out of time to do the forecast notes update, but I'll have a new one through around lunchtime today.
swell chart men, water way way warmer yesterday, just an influx of that warmer current u reckon caused by other factors? normally we have cool current now, but yesterday water temp balmy- spotted jelly, looked like box jelly but skinnier and smaller tentacles
No significant temp fluctuations at any SE Qld buoy over the last few days. Could just be some localised warm water patches developing in shallow regions and moving around.
Warm eddies from the EAC extending down to mid-north coast.
Sea surface temp very variable this time of year due to Ekman transport during northerly flows.
Seems like southerly winds yesterday have bought warmer water inshore.
Yeah that'd be the likely cause, cooler after the strong NNE winds, and then the warm water that was pushed offshore gets brought back in by the S'lys.
There's a large area of positive SST anomaly centred offshore from Fraser Island and extending south from there.
The eddies are localised and mobile.
thanks guys, i had quick look and i thought it was a transient thing. freeride- Ekman transport? got me hooked there mate, never heard the term before so i am fascinated- want to hear your perspective- not googles- only if u have time though mate, much appreciated
Here's a great and easy to understand article Ben did on it Dave:
https://www.swellnet.com/news/swellnet-analysis/2006/07/03/why-does-wate...
cool, never knew it was called that though, very well explained ben, but as we know, warm water not as nutrient enriched as cold, so why do jellyfish mainly live in warm water when as nutrient feeders/small fish etc, they would be better off living in colder water. lets ship em off down to tassie to live with sheepdog. always thinking of helping you mate.
Bens' article nails it Dave.
Only thing I disagree with is the benefit to fisherman angle.
That cold upwelling water shuts down fishing here. Everything goes dead. It's the warm EAC water than brings bait and life to the NSW coast.
Really Steve?
Maybe not straight away, but with that upwelling the nutrients are brought into the photic zone (where sun light enters the water column) stimulating the productivity of phytoplankton which then flows down the food chain to secondary and tertiaty production (fish stocks).
Further, warm water is usually exhausted of nutrients and food/fish stocks.
My flat mate did a PhD looking at the productivity within cold-core nutrient rich eddys and warm core nutrient poor eddys and found that the warm cores were like ocean deserts, but cold cores had all the activity.
The actual boundary of the eddy I think was the most productive where all the mixing between water masses went on.
I know that s the academic position Craig, but it's the warm blue water that contains the fish.
the cold green upwelling water is as dead as a door nail.
Perhaps the greatest expression of the influence of the East Australian Current (EAC) is demonstrated by its relationship with the top end of the food web and from there to the fisheries that exist within and outside the EAC (Campbell, 2008; Young et al., 2001, 2011). The EAC is the focus for a range of top predator tuna and billfish, either as a thermal refuge, a feeding environment or as a spawning ground (Campbell, 2008; Young et al., 2001, 2003; Young et al., 2011). In particular, yellowfin tuna, Thunnus albacares, are closely associated with the EAC as catch data over many years have highlighted (e.g. Ward, 1996). The higher temperature of surface waters relative to the adjacent Tasman Sea has enabled these typically subtropical species to extend their range as far south as Tasmania (Young et al., 2001). Predicted ocean warming suggests that these and other tropical tuna and billfish species are likely to be an increasingly important component of pelagic ecosystems within Australian waters in years to come (Hartog et al., 2011).
"Monitoring of the FADs by I&I NSW has shown mahi mahi (also known as dolphinfish) is the most common species found around the FADs, representing 95% of the catch. The species follows the warm waters of the East Australian Current and is a fast growing pelagic fish species. Mahi-mahi are a very popular sport fish with excellent eating qualities." NSW DPI
Most baitfish and pelagic fish that feed on them are found in the warm water of the EAC.
Cheers Steve, I guess what I'm getting at is that the upwelling is the starting point for all this production, and if we didn't see this upwelling occuring off the East Coast we'd see less fish down the East Coast and in the EAC.
It's those current lines that we look for (cold meets warm). As Craig pointed out the plankton etc are in the cooler green water, which the baitfish feed on and also use as sort of place to hide from the pelagic predators. The pelagics patrol these edges and particularly where the upwellings are magnified by seamounts, canyons and spikes along the shelf. These are the bluewater fishermans lifeblood, where as you point out Steve, the inshore fishermans desert.
I remember reading something a while ago similar how Japanese fishers monitor the Kuroshio Current via a daily report (link here).
Yeah. It's a beautiful puzzle to solve.
No warm or cold water upwelling where I've just come from. Just a constant balmy 29-30 deg in the water!!!! ;)
And.....
And....what?
The surf, how'd you go!
Sensational. Best boat trip I've been on for quality waves, no crowds and quality of boat charter/crew.
Bastard, would like to hear stories/accounts/images when you get a chance. Glad you scored!
hey Ben, any chance you'll put up a forecast notes for this weekend? I'm wondering what the likelihood for light winds tomorrow or sunday are, and whether there is enough swell to warranty a lil paddle over the seaway...
hey mate, they went up a while ago - you can get them from this page. Weekend not looking too flash though! Small with northerlies in SE Qld.
aye aye cap'n! cheers
spring grovel is on...
Yeah, what's happened to the bender? Has he looked at one too many isobars, and it's done him in? Talking jibberish in a padded cell?....
"It's a dip, sheepdog"...15 seconds.....Fetch! fetch!!!..... No craig, not accessg..... The the ascat.... The ASCAT I SAID!!!!! hmmm 12seconds sse.... where's my calculator.... SOMEONE TOOK MY CALCULATOR!!!!!! DON!!!!!! hmmm 12seconds sse.....The Ballina report is fine, Steve!!! It's fine!!!!!...."
;)
Ha! Who said I use a calculator anymore?
I'm pretty sure you know what you've said above Sheepy, but fecked if I can decipher it!!!
It's called "humour", Don.... A rare commodity....... Ben got it..... lol..... It was a "mind picture" of ben in a padded cell, after reading one too many weather maps.... He "snapped", and was talking jibberish in his cell..... Get it now? It's undecipherable jibberish, which one does when they "snap"..... Jeez...... I take it your a Benny Hill sorta humour guy ;)
Don dun gon troppo
"Are you being Served"
lol.... That inland system I mentioned looks interesting, for your neck of the woods in particular, Ben.... Big stormy......
old saying, sarcasm lowest form of wit- exposed when u pre conceive some sort of wit/ intelligence, now they know u know me, all gone hippy yowie dog- miss ya big chief- yes i have called for inland rain, cheaper fruit and vegs and more suitable for all - lets have a bodysurfing com to see who can match the rave- no fins/ no hand planes- ask dave davidson if he thinks i can back up claims-
Hmmm, saw the tittle "Extended period of mediocrity ahead" and thought this was about the future of Aussies in pro surfing.
And...!
i think extended period of mediocrity was about my performance and not wave quality- lighten up guys, sure some threads go on tangents- but how lucky are we- censorship, guys, if me too much i will accept job offered to me as transparency media advisor to tony hockey and the mighty f/ducks. life begins outside comfort zone- but since, wed thurs fri- pumping- but i will b in berra with suit and tie on
Feck me I see there's been some serious upwelling over the last day or so. Byron buoy dropped almost 3.5-4 deg in the last day or so!!!
once again, swell dips south, hoping this one would stay further north.