South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 8th September)

Best Days: Late Wednesday: fun peaky NE windswell across the Mid North Coast once a W'ly change pushes through. May see some similarly fun waves in the Far North, but more likely to be early Thurs here (and also in SE Qld) as winds tending SW then S'ly. Nothing major though.

Recap: Easing leftover SE swell all weekend, with even a few reasonable waves making their way north of the border (2-3ft sets recorded via the Moffats cam on Saturday). Most regions have seen small leftovers this morning, and unfortunately a strengthening E’ly fetch just off the SE Qld coast late yesterday ended up being positioned slightly further north than Friday’s model data suggested (see ASCAT data below). This small tweak has resulted in a slightly smaller-sized local windswell for the Gold and Sunny Coast today than what was expected.

This week (Sep 9-12)

There’s nothing of major interest to look forward to in the surf department this week. With no significant sources of swell on the cards, we’ll be working around marginal windswells and funky winds. 

Tuesday morning will see a small trade swell (similar to today) across SE Qld but the northern latitude of its source means we won’t see much action south of about Ballina. In any case, swell periods will be low and winds - apart from a brief window at dawn - will be onshore. In fact freshening north-east winds late Tuesday with strengthen from the north on Wednesday morning, almost wiping out most mid week options. 

However, it’ll be worth keeping a close eye on wind obs and the surf cams through the afternoon, if you’re near the Mid North Coast. NE facing beaches across the this region should pick up a small increase in local NE windswell during Wednesday and we’ll probably see a westerly change around lunchtime (extending northwards late in the day). So Wednesday afternoon may have a few peaky options at the swell magnets south of Coffs Harbour (perhaps some sneaky 2-3ft sets if you’re lucky, with the biggest waves in the far south of the region). 

There’s an outside chance for a very late window of peaky waves on Wednesday across the Far North and in SE Qld but it’s hard to have confidence in the local winds at this time. So keep an eye on the surfcams and be prepared to pounce if necessary.

SW winds will then envelop most of the Northern NSW coast on Thursday morning, tending S’ly in the Far North and into SE Qld, before easing steadily during the day. Most of Wednesday's NE windswell will be rapidly easing across the Mid North Coast by this time but a moderate N’ly fetch will persist off Southern Qld into the early hours of Thursday morning, and this may give rise to a few hours of fun peaky waves across NE facing beaches in the Far North and SE Qld that offer shelter from a southerly breeze. Probably not quite as big as the Mid North Coast, perhaps in the 2ft range at exposed beaches.

All in all, we’re not going to see epic conditions but the late Wednesday thru early Thursday period certainly has the potential for some fun peaky beachies across the region. But in order to score you’ll need a fluid timetable and a keen eye for the weather station obs table.

To round out the week, Friday’s looking at developing southerly winds (from the Mid North Coast, moving north during the day). A small new south swell will accompany the change - or trail just behind - but it’s only expected to be small, and won’t favour anywhere away from the south swell magnets. All in all a pretty uninspiring finish to the working week at this stage.

This weekend (Sep 13-14)

Not much in store for the weekend at this stage. We’ve got a significant front bearing down on the region for the start of next week but early indications for this weekend are that we’ll be between swells, with mainly light winds in the south under a ridge of high pressure, fresh trades in the north (on Saturday, easing Sunday) and a mainly small residual souths swell at exposed beaches in Northern NSW.

Model data does have a small secondary south swell pushing through on Saturday (originating from the parent front/low to Wednesday’s change, but well south of Tasmania) however I’m not very confident it’ll translate to much at the coast. And SE Qld may pick up a small, low quality SE windswell on Saturday - but it’s unlikely to be much more than a couple of feet at best. Either way, keep your expectations low for anything noteworthy this weekend.

Longer term (Sep 15 onwards)

As the Long Wave Trough migrates eastward into the Tasman Sea early next week, we’ll see another round of solid, windy south swell build across the NSW coast. At this stage model data seems to be focusing the swell into the southern half of the state (with exposed spots possible reaching 6-8ft), but it’s early days so let’s see things evolve throughout the week. In any case this is the only focal point for the long term period with nothing else of any significance elsewhere. See you Wednesday!