South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 3rd September)

Best Days: Thurs: very large and windy surf in Northern NSW, with small clean waves in SE Qld. Fri: slowly easing S/SE swell with early SW winds tending S'ly during the day. Best in SE Qld (where it'll be much smaller). Sat/Sun: Fun small waves along the semi-exposed points in SE Qld.

Recap: Small easing E/SE swell across open beaches Northern NSW on Tuesday, with not much at all in SE Qld. A large new southerly swell is advancing along the NSW coast today, having delivered 10-12ft surf at exposed spots around Sydney and Newcastle this morning. The Mid North Coast has already reported very large surf at exposed spots, and we’re now seeing the leading edge of this energy make its way north of the border (where it’s obviously a lot smaller due to the swell direction). It hasn’t reached the Sunshine Coast yet but we should see the bulk energy fill in across all areas overnight.

This week (Sep 4-5)

This Tasman Low is a mighty fine specimen. Very strong core winds, slow forward trajectory, close proximity to the mainland, but aligned in such a manner such that the coastal margin is receiving only an occasional lash of the associated wintry weather, compared to the onslaught of an ECL or hybrid tropical low.

Sure, from a surfing perspective it’s either marginal or fantastic (with not much between) but this event certainly won’t be short lived; there’s plenty more to come for the rest of the week and even the weekend. 

The core fetch around this Tasman Low is still quite active, positioned east of about Sydney but aimed to points further north. A quick scan of the recent synoptic charts shows that the low itself is very slow moving, of which it’s expected to begin a slow eastwards track on Thursday.

As such, we’re looking at another day of large waves from the southern quadrant on Thursday across Northern NSW. Windy conditions will prevail across much of the region, but the key feature here is the axis of the low, which looks to be positioned roughly between Port Macquarie and Seal Rocks. Locations north of here are looking to see early W/SW tending SW winds; strengths will be greatest south of Ballina, and as you get closer to the low’s axis - from Port Macquarie south - we may see more of a chance for S/SW winds (of probable gale force strength plus). 

What this means is that the Far Northern NSW coast is looking at fresh offshore winds across true semi-exposed points on Thursday, with a large southerly swell - still likely to be somewhere in the 10ft+ range at exposed south facing beaches, with smaller surf (say, 6ft+) across most open beaches (and smaller inside sheltered southern corners). Surf size might be a smidge higher across the Mid North Coast but it’ll also be more raw in quality, as well as wind affected. 

In South East Queensland, Thursday's surf size will vary massively between exposed south facing spots and the greater Gold and Sunshine Coast beaches (including the semi-exposed points). As I said in Monday’s notes, I’m never very confident in south swells north of the border - no matter how impressive the responsible weather system looks on the charts - so I’m going to play it somewhat conservatively and be pleasantly surprised if we see bigger surf than forecast. 

For now, I'm gunning for inconsistent 2-3ft sets across most locations in South East Queensland, but with bigger waves at the region's handful of exposed south swell magnets (possibly up to 5-6ft). It’ll be a bit of work sniffing around for the right combo, as the size and inconsistency of this south swell may render the points too much hard work with any degree of crowd. But some of the exposed beachies could be easily overpowered. You see the dilemma?

Friday doesn’t looking quite as good for Northern NSW. As the Tasman Low moves slowly eastwards, and a ridge of high pressure builds across southern NSW, we’ll see gusty S/SW winds tending S’ly across Northern NSW and into SE Qld (maybe not until late in the day north of the border). This will confine the only surfable options to protected points, who’ll be wearing an easing S/SE swell. Early morning should still see SW winds and great options at semi-exposed points (for those seeking size) but just be wary of the likelihood of a wind change.

South swell magnets in Northern NSW should be down to 6-8ft by this time, with smaller 3-5ft surf at remaining open beaches. South East Queensland will see smaller surf: I still think we’ll see inconsistent but long lined sets in the 2ft to maybe 3ft range across much of the Gold and Sunshine Coasts - and south swell magnets will be considerably bigger (albeit more wind affected). 

This weekend (Sep 6-7)

Although wave heights are expected to ease all weekend, it looks like both Saturday and Sunday will be best suited to the Gold and Sunshine Coasts, compared to Northern NSW. 

Onshore winds are expected to prevail across the entire region (S/SE tending SE) as a high pressure system across southern NSW extends a ridge across Northern NSW and Southern Queensland, and this will focus the best waves to protected locations.

We should see a morning S/SW breeze in a handful of locations - the southern Gold Coast tops out my list here - but the semi-exposed points won’t have a great deal of size, somewhere in the 2ft+ range across most beaches with south swell magnets picking up considerably more size as per usual.

In Northern NSW surf size will be a lot bigger but these winds will cause problems away from the sheltered points. Let’s take a closer look on Friday to see if there’s any fine tuning to be done on the wind outlook. Regardless, we’re looking at a very slow easing trend in the size department in all areas with Saturday expected to display the biggest waves. 

Longer term (Sep 8 onwards)

The models have downgraded the front originally expected to push through the southern Tasman Sea on Sunday. Consequently, surf potential has been scaled back for early next week (around Wed). We’ll still see some new southerly energy during this period but it’ll really only favour exposed south facing beaches in Northern NSW. 

The only other area of interest is the possibility of a strengthening ridge across the Northern Tasman Sea early next week which may give rise to (another!) unseasonal short range east swell for Southern Queensland through the middle to latter part of the week. Let’s see how things are stacking up in Friday’s updated notes.