Persistent small surf for the short term
South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 30th April)
Best Days: Mon/Tues: plenty of strong south swell for Northern NSW.
Recap: Fun S/SE swell building across the Northern NSW region on Tuesday with good winds in the morning. Smaller waves in SE Qld. Size is now easing across the region.
This week (May 1-2)
Bit of a mixed bag for the rest of the week. A southerly change is pushing along the southern NSW coast at the moment, and should reach the Mid North Coast overnight Wednesday and then the North Coast/SE Qld region by mid morning Thursday.
This change will whip up a small south swell for exposed south facing beaches on Thursday, but it looks like the biggest beneficiary will be the Lower Mid North Coast, which should see an earlier influence from a building ridge of high pressure - fresh southerly winds at dawn winds are expected to go variable by lunchtime ahead of a late afternoon nor’easter.
In contrast, we’re looking at early W’ly winds in the Far North/SE Qld region (without much leftover swell from today), tending S’ly by mid morning and SE by lunchtime. So the open beaches in the Far North may not get a chance to recover like they will between (about) Coffs and Seal Rocks. SE Qld probably won't pick up much swell from this source due to its low period and southerly direction.
In any case there won’t be a huge amount of new swell in the wake of the change anyway, perhaps 2-3ft at south facing beaches with smaller surf elsewhere.
Winds will swing NW on Friday across all regions, and become quite fresh and gusty during the day but with a small, easing short range S’ly swell there’s not much to look forward too. Try the exposed south swell magnets if you’re keen but you’ll need a high volume board to make the most of the small waves.
This weekend (May 3-4)
Not a lot for surfers to get excited about this weekend, but it will be worth watching developments to the south in anticipation of a northwards progression of new southerly swell.
A developing low off the South Coast on Saturday morning - just east of Batemans Bay, according to the latest model guidance - will initially strengthen W/NW winds about the region, but we're not expecting much if any swell leftover from Friday. So Saturday is a lay day, per se.
At this stage the models are moving around quite a bit (as they have been all week) regarding the exact timing and placement of the low, however it’s a pretty safe bet that we won’t see any significant new swell across SE Qld or most of Northern NSW on Sunday either. The only chance at this stage would be the Lower Mid North Coast which may pick up the leading edge of a (potentially) solid building south swell late in the day. However, Monday is a much greater chance for this to happen.
Either way, I’ll update these notes in more detail on Friday as the model guidance should have firmed up the size and timing of the expected new south swell by then. There’s a chance that Sunday’s outlook could improve over the coming days (ie upgrade), but if this does happen it almost certainly won’t include SE Qld - it’ll just be an earlier arrival in the Lower Mid North Coast, which may therefore allow for a very late increase in the Far North too.
Longer term (May 5 onwards)
There are actually two new areas of swell production expected to develop this weekend. The primary low off the South Coast, as well as a secondary low developing east of Tasmania at the same time. They'll eventually merge into one major southerly fetch as the low matures and moves away from the coastal margin.
Initially, the low's swell generating potential will be positioned within a small, narrow strip immediately off the mainland. The low will then probably move slowly SE, to be located in the central/southern Tasman by the start of the week, which suggests a decent spell of solid southerly swell for exposed south facing spots right along the NSW coast from Monday thru' Wednesday (obviously biggest in the south of the state).
As for the Northern NSW Coast - regardless of what transpires Sunday, we’re much more certain to see a solid increase through Monday and Tuesday. It’s too early to have much confidence on the timing and size but at this stage 4-6ft surf at south facing beaches seems to be a reasonable prospect, with smaller waves at protected spots of course.
SE Qld doesn’t usually benefit from these kinds of weather systems (mainly due to the strong southerly component in the swell direction) so we’ll probably see much smaller surf here.
Winds look like they’ll be good throughout this period too, with a fairly typical winteresque W/SW flow across the entire region.
Looking further ahead, and another approaching low from the west looks like it’ll kick up yet another round of south swell for the region later in the week. More on this in Friday’s notes.
Comments
I'm calling this one early. It will be a monster system I will watch from my computer as 1-2 foot groomed lines arrive here on the sunny coast coast.
I think you're about bang on. In fact it's probably a slight overcall!
How far south would we have to go to find anything 3ft + do you think?
Still a few days away, and without naming spots there should be a few options just south of the border. However really for the best chances you're best off tracking south of Byron.
I have a very bad feeling about this swell this weekend, or should I say Monday and Tuesday. GFS continues to push back the arrival time of this swell.
When GFS continues to push back the arrival times of the swell it usually means bad news……..the swell won’t come!!!! And normally I’d be relying on good old faithful EC model but it’s just been playing catch up with every run of the GFS model lately so I have no confidence in it whatsoever!!!!!
GFS has been up and down regularly over the last few days, but despite writing off the swell in yesterday's 00Z run, this morning's 12Z run has reverted back to 6ft at south facing beaches (in Sydney) for Sunday afternoon, and 4-6ft for all of Monday.
And the current Coffs Harbour forecast is 5-6ft south facing beaches on Monday and 5ft on Tuesday (see below).
So it's still hanging in there.. just!
Is that the 18z results Ben? I thought the 18z model had pushed the swell arrival time back even further?
Nah that was 12Z. 18Z came out about 40 mins ago (which you're looking at now) and yep - it's pushed it back again! This constant see-sawing is making me dizzy.
Pushed it back and SMALLER!!!! It's making you dizzy!!!.....It's making me cry!!! I have 10 guys sitting in two houses in NSW this weekend (Sat-Mon/Tues) waiting for anything that resembles a wave!!!!
Ha! Southern NSW still looking good with EC 12Z too, should be 4-6ft in Sydney by late Sunday, holding through Monday (maybe a few bigger bombs, esp Hunter). Would still be pretty good for Northern NSW too but exclusively at south facing beaches.
Really, I don't think we be confident in any great way on this until the system actually develops throughout Saturday.
Models/actual ASCAT observations may look better to us Saturday afternoon as the 10 of us settle back for an arvo of drinking and watching footy on fox!!!! ;)
And we're back on the horse!
00Z GFS is same as this morning's 12Z run (although for some reason Coffs has done something weird with the Mon 12pm data, showing a temp drop in size between 6am and 6pm).
Anyway here's the plot for Port Macquarie - 6ft at south facing beaches on Monday morning. Also has 5-6ft at Yamba (SFB) late Monday, and 4-5ft in Ballina. Giddyup!
Ben, perhaps this has been discussed before beyond reasonable human endurance, if so, please forget the question. But, why is a head high wave measured at 3 feet?
I surf the front of the wave etc. etc.
Yeah it's been discussed ad nausem here and in many other places. I don't think the debate is going to finish up any time soon.
I'm not sure of the origin of this measuring scale (it seems to be a little different to 'Hawaiian' surf sizes), however the vast majority of surfers I've ever spoken to throughout my surfing lifetime - or who have discussed the topic online - seem to measure waves in this way.
We did an article on it a few years back, which provided some illuminating commentary: https://www.swellnet.com/news/swellnet-dispatch/2012/06/01/how-big-guess...
Thanks Ben. My surf buddies mostly just go on the wave face height. If it is very peaky, a 6 foot takeoff, but a 4 foot wall, we might call that 4 foot. But that is as far as we go in downplaying our 'big' wave triumphs.
But, whatever is the standard, that is fine by me. You helpfully provide the conversion.
Re: the Hawaiian scale, which is something different again as you say, most of the Hawaiian legends I have seen interviewed seem to confess that it's a fair bit of macho bulldust, but that's how we roll (wry shrug).
Going off ACCESS-G for swell and ECMWF for winds, I think next thursday is looking better all round...
if you allow for an error margin in the local winds, of being stronger, longer lasting or further nth reaching. I.e. I hate mod-strong offshores
The second low looks more interesting re' qld.... developing 6th may onwards...
also still outside chance at small east swell... outside chance only... I'm being overly optimistic on this one....
Interesting bit of muck developing off fnq coast with large high over Vicco may 8th.... Hopeful on trade swell at least for qld a day or two after.... maybe 3 days after... Depends on strength of high...
Sheepy how'd you get the charts pre-internet days, out to sea? Someone describe them over radio?
Well..... Back in the old days........... I used to do a dance on the stern of the ship, and sacrifice a seagull to Neptune... Neptune would then grant me a vision...... ;)
Nah... Smaller trawlers would go out for 3 or so days... Just before leaving you'd do a decent study of the current map, and of the 3 day forecast.... You'd take the map with you.... CB/2 way radio was god..... You could get weather updates and obs'..... You could draw in obs...... Alot of gut feel back then......
Bigger boats ( 70 - 100 footers) that used to go up to torres straight could handle some pretty nasty stuff..... and there were a myriad of reefs and islands to hide behind...
haha yeah thought as much, hand spear a few Marlin with that Triton too I spose!
Hmmmm latest access g looks pretty fecking impressive for those dates you've outlined above SD. Not trade wind swell mind you!!!
I wasn't gonna bring that up..... yet......lol...... I am waiting on latest gfs from my favorite sight.... Hence I have only called it "muck" at this stage..... Definite area of tropical disturbance though.... Cold southern air on western flank meets ene tropical air on eastern flank..... maybe..... Upper charts would be worth a look...... As the blind man says...... "we'll see"......
hmmm. wunderground has similar.... not as rad..... But similar.... still waiting on favorite gfs
Re' my comment above - That interesting bit of tropical "muck' and the strong high will create swell..... At least tradeswell as a bare minimum...... chance of something more substantial.......The disturbance may even "bomb"..... Several troughs..... cold air blast heading up coast now..... warm air feeding in from coral sea...... Worth noting......
Satellite images are interesting now.
In what way Steve? Ascat seems down for me at the moment.
Just the infrared/cloud/surface composite.
That infeed of cloud moisture from the NW, related to a tropical infeed from Indonesian longitudes. It can be a precursor sign of ECL or hybrid low development.
Models prog it to drift across the country over coming days and orient E-W.
Seen it before the Anzac Day swell of 2009
Dead give away is "shadow" on mslp gfs
Free ride - check out "shadow" surface trough above high inland qld... Often a dead give away for me.... Sever dip in isobars west of great divide 8/5.....
Covered it here back on 8/3/ 14 forecast note SEQ....
"Lesson 1 - Winter "bomb" lows. Sorta nearly covered it already. But that 'Upper level shit" that comes in from the west in winter, it comes in from the Timor sea, across the NT... May, June July, August, September, keep your eyes out on the cloud charts for a mass of cloud over the centre of Australia in winter, moving east, yet there's nothing on the surface chart - Light rain sometimes in Alice Springs..... Now, if at the same time there is a big high over NSW pushing in trades up your way ( which is a bit unseasonal in winter), things may happen. Look at the map..... The lines (isobars, millibars, hectopascals - whatever you wanna call em - we'll just call em fuckn lines), anyway, if the lines around the High make a sorta funny "dip" right on the great dividing range behind the sunny coast region, and they are slightly squeezed together, we're nearly there..... (Sometimes, a decent weather man will put a small trough mark there- looks a bit like broken road lines where you are allowed to overtake) When that upper shit moves over the top of the "dip in the lines", and if the easterlies start howling (again very odd in winter), and, it starts raining heavily (again very odd in winter) , it's BOMB TIME!!!!!! Here endeth lesson one....."
yep. I look towards Thargomindah.
yeah, and dip all the way nnw to gulf..
Care to make a call on the upcoming system SD?
So, high pressure ridge pushes in from over sth WA/SA.
pushes up(vertically) moist air in the north.
Upper winds carry it eastward as high (cirrus) cloud.
meets with trades on east coast, which have ascended up the range.
Low forms on water...?
Have a bark Sheepio, come on.
Jesus Steve Anzac Day 2009 that's promising. Ground control to SD, anyone there?? - maybe he's snow in.
Free ride.... I think it's about your turn for a call... or Don's ;)
All the indicators are there..... Willing to take a punt? i've got $20 bucks to put in the kitty.......