South Oz Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday October 30th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small waves on the Mid on Thursday (clean early)
• Small clean waves down south on Saturday
• Chunky onshore surf on the Mid on Sunday
• Monday looking good with a solid swell for both coasts and generally light winds  

Recap

The last two days have seen small 1-2ft waves across the Mid Coast with generally light winds keeping conditions clean. Winds were light and varibale both mornings at Victor along with 3ft of peaky swell, however the onshore breeze has come up as each day has progressed. 

Small lines on the Mid Coast mid-morning Wednesday

This week (Oct 31 - Nov 1)

No change to the short term outlook, with a front passing south of the state tomorrow expected to give the southerly airstream a little nudge. Chances for a window of lighter winds (down south) are less than the last few days, though surf size should maintain a slow 3ft at Middleton, so there’ll be waves if you’re keen to ignore the state of surface conditions.

The Mid Coast won’t mind this trend much through the morning, early SE breezes tending S/SE, before freshening S’ly or even S/SW after lunch. A minor pulse of energy should maintain inconsistent 1ft, maybe 1-2ft waves across the reefs, best suited to the lower tides. 

Slowly easing size is expected into the afternoon across both coasts and this trend will continue into Friday, probably some lingering waves for beginners on the Mid though not enough to get excited about. 

Victor looks to see gradually easing south-easterly onshores but with no real cause for optimism as the previous day’s winds will have created plenty of lump and bump. So, keep your expectations low down south.

This weekend (Nov 2 - 3)

We’ve got some nice waves expected at Victor for Saturday, with freshening NE tending N’ly winds as a front approaches from the west, and small clean surf around 2ft at Middleton easing to 1ft throughout the day. Expect bigger, better surf around at Waits/Parsons and down at Goolwa, in the 3ft+ range early on.

Saturday looks tiny on the Mid save a late increase in northerly windswell (that won’t really be surfable anyway).

The front is expected to cross the gulf around midnight Saturday, and we’ll have all-day onshores from the W/SW on Sunday that’ll do very few favours for the South Coast, but will build a mix of local windswell and underlying groundswell into the 3ft+ range on the Mid Coast.

It’s now looking like there won’t be quite enough size for a proper stormy - with options across metro beaches - but the good news is that the onshore flow won’t be quite as strong which means bumpy, chunky options across the Mid all day. 

Next week (Nov 4 onwards)

Monday looks much better for surf prospects. 

The parent low to Saturday night’s change (see below) will have generated a good quality groundswell that will build later Sunday ahead of a peak on Monday, but even better, by this time the front will have cleared to the east, allowing winds to become light and variable. 

This should generate good 2-3ft surf across the Mid Coast and 3-4ft+ surf across the MIddleton stretch. I’ll fine-tune specifics on Friday.

Easing surf is then expected mid-week ahead of a renewal of frontal activity later in the week with more swell prospects leading into the following weekend.