South Australian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday February 19th)

Best Days: Mid Coast tomorrow, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Inconsistent W/SW groundswell Fri PM on the Mid with NW tending variable then stronger SW winds, peaking Sat with S/SE-SE tending S/SW winds
• More consistent, bigger W/SW swell pulse Sat PM, easing Sun with fresh morning S/SE winds
• Moderate to large W/SW groundswell building Mon with S/SW winds (S-S/SE at times on the Mid early and late), easing a touch Tue with stronger S/SE winds, smaller Wed with morning SE winds

Recap

Good waves for the exposed beaches down South the last couple of days with hot offshore winds and small, easing surf.

Today we've got a new, inconsistent W/SW groundswell on the build with 1-1.5ft waves on the Mid Coast that should kick nicely with the tide to 2ft this afternoon. Winds will shift N/NW early afternoon, variable for a short period ahead of a stronger S/SW change, so timing the window of lighter winds will be the pick.

This weekend and next week (Feb 18 - 26)

From this afternoon through most of the period, the Mid Coast will be the pick of the regions with varying pulses of W/SW swell and with more favourable winds. It won't be perfect at times with cross-shore morning breezes but better than the South Coast which will be choppy and poor.

Today's first pulse of W/SW groundswell will be followed up by a better increase tomorrow with inconsistent sets to 2ft due across the Mid Coast, 2ft or so across Middleton. Winds will swing S/SE-SE tomorrow morning, creating clean conditions ahead of sea breezes, back to the S/SE late.

Now, a mid-latitude low that formed under WA yesterday and was expected to generate a tiny reinforcing pulse of swell for Sunday is now looking a bit stronger. It's currently dipping south-east while strengthening but last night and early this morning it generated a burst of strong to gale-force W/SW winds through our swell window.

This should produce a pulse to 2-3ft tomorrow afternoon on the Mid, with Sunday seeing easy 2ft sets while Middleton should pulse to 2-3ft. Fresh S/SE morning winds will favour the former Sunday (S'ly down South), with afternoon SW sea breezes, back to the S/SE on dark again.

Our strong, long-period and inconsistent W/SW groundswell for Monday is on track, with a great fetch of storm-force winds generated through our far south-western swell window, currently weaker and back to severe-gale strength while being projected towards the Bight. The 'bombing' low will continue to weaken while moving east, though maintain bursts of strong to gale-force W/SW winds through our south-western swell window tomorrow, a touch weaker Sunday while projecting under us.

We'll see a moderate-large sized, prolonged W/SW tending SW swell event with the strongest, long-period energy arriving Monday and building towards a peak from midday, into the afternoon.

There's no change to the expected size with Middleton due to reach 4-5ft (if not for the odd bigger cleanup) with 2-3ft surf on the Mid Coast. Winds look more S/SW on Monday generally, lighter and more S-S/SE at dawn on the Mid (far from perfect), back to the S/SE on dark.

Tuesday should continue to offer plenty of size to 2ft to occasionally 3ft with S/SE winds holding all day, strong at times. The South Coast looks to ease slowly from 4-5ft.

Winds will swing more SE Wednesday with the swell easing more noticeably from 1-2ft on the Mid Coast, 3-4ft down South, still onshore and poor Thursday down South with SE winds.

Longer term, we've got another significant polar low on the cards for mid-next week, with a moderate-large S/SW groundswell likely next weekend. Winds are still up in the air though look more than likely S/SE-SE, but more on this Monday. Have a great weekend!