South Australian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 26th October)

Best Days: Mid Coast Thursday afternoon and Friday, Saturday for the desperate, South Coast Sunday morning for the desperate

Recap

A poor weekend of surf with tiny waves on the Mid Coast and fresh to strong onshore winds across the South Coast which have persisted into today.

This week and weekend (Oct 27 – Nov 1)

Looking at the coming two days of surf and there's nothing of interest across both the Mid and South Coasts with a strong high that's south of us due to move slowly east tomorrow, swinging winds to the E during the morning but with no decent swell. Conditions will deteriorate into the afternoon as winds swing to the S'th.

A weak SE windswell will be easing down South from 2ft to possibly 3ft, while the Mid Coast will be tiny to flat.

Come Wednesday morning winds are due to swing offshore from the NW down South, variable on the Mid Coast but there's no new swell on the cards until Thursday. Middleton will be clean but unlikely to top 1ft, tiny to flat on the Mid Coast again.

As we move into the end of the week, an inconsistent but good W/SW groundswell is due to fill in, building Thursday afternoon and peaking Friday.

The source of the swell is a broad, elongated and strong frontal progression that developed between Heard Island and Western Australia over the weekend.

The progression formed a little too far north in latitude than ideal, and in our medium-far swell window, and this will result in the swell coming in fairly west and also with less consistency. It'll favour the Mid Coast, but expect long waits between the set waves.

We should see the swell building Thursday, more so into the afternoon and reaching 2ft to likely 3ft on the sets with the incoming tide, holding an inconsistent 2ft+ on the favourable parts of the tide through Friday, then easing from 1-2ft Saturday.

The South Coast should build to a slow 3ft later in the day Thursday across Middleton, holding a similar size Friday.

Unfortunately a surface trough moving in Thursday will bring variable tending S/SW winds on the Mid Coast, tending S/SE later and variable tending S'ly winds down South as the swell builds.

Friday will be best on the Mid Coast with a strengthening S/SE winds. It won't be perfect and wind affected but fun.

S/SE winds will persist through Saturday as the W/SW swell eases, creating poor conditions down South, with Sunday morning possibly seeing an improvement as winds shift E/NE but there'll only be a small mix of easing swells from 2ft or so.

Moving into next week and we've got a slow start but later in the week, a healthy frontal progression looks to generate some moderate sized SW groundswell, though winds are tricky and likely to swing S/SE, favouring the Mid over the South Coast. More on this Wednesday though.