South Australian Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 30th October)

Best Days: Tues: large though steadily easing swell at Victor with winds becoming light and variable. Fun easing surf on the Mid. Wed: smaller on both coasts with light winds. Chance for a v.late pulse of new swell on the Mid. Thurs: early light winds and a strong groundswell; good surf both coasts though a'noon S'lies will spoil conditions at Victor.

Recap: Saturday saw a small fun W’ly swell build across the Mid Coast with winds remaining generally light. Surf size was tiny at Victor Harbor due to the swell direction. Wave heights eased across the Mid into Sunday morning but a new swell built down south on Sunday (and eventually rebuilt across the Mid too), though conditions were quite blustery with gusty northerlies swinging westerly mid-afternoon. Today a very large swell has impacted the coast, with the Cape du Couedic buoy recorded wave heights around 15.5m (51ft!) along with peak swell periods of around 18 seconds. That being said, the surf size at the coast is not that impressive - we’ve got a bog-standard Mid Coast stormy that seems to have eased throughout the day from 3-5ft this morning to 3-4ft this afternoon. The Victor Coast wasn’t very impressive either; the morning saw 4-5ft surf building to 4-6ft at Middleton, but it seems to be easing now (see surfcam grab below) - certainly not the kind of size expected given the buoy data, though it’s only just under Craig’s estimates issued on Friday. 

Easing size at Middleton this afternoon - not that big either!

This week (Oct 25 onwards)

*today’s notes will be brief as Craig’s away*

Taking over from Craig this week means I’ve kinda been thrown in the deep end for today's notes, having not watched the Southern Ocean charts for much of last week. 

Most of the available data sources for today (ASCAT winds, surface charts etc) seem to fall in line with Craig’s Friday expectations, so despite the CdC buoy throwing up some of the more impressive figures in recent memory, there’s no real reason to change the short term outlook issued on Friday - I have no compelling evidence to suggest otherwise. 

Anyway, Tuesday should see steadily easing surf and rapidly easing SW winds becoming variable. We may see some local topographical influence around the Victor region, resulting in a light W/NW flow but expect some leftover wobble on the surface. Middleton should ease from early 4-5ft sets down to 3-4ft during the morning, with smaller surf on the Mid Coast abating from 2ft, maybe 2-3ft on the tide if we’re lucky. But it'll become a lot less consistent too.

Light variable winds are also expected on Wednesday with a further gradual easing of surf size. The Mid Coast should see 1-2ft+ sets on the more favourable parts of the tide, whilst Middleton should see 3ft surf for much of the day, with very inconsistent sets. 

A new long period swell is due to arrive overnight Wednesday, in fact there’s an outside chance that the last few hours of sunlight may see a few early sneaker sets across the Mid Coast (keep an eye on the CdC for a kick in swell period; we’ll need to see it arrive before 3pm in order to make an appreciable difference before sundown). 

This swell will originate from a deep low SW of Western Australia today, which is displaying a broad, healthy pre-frontal W/NW fetch and a developing W/SW fetch behind it. Wave heights should rebuild back to 4-6ft at Middleton on Thrusday morning, with bigger surf at offshore bombies and also around at Waits and Parsons.

The responsible fetch is not perfectly aligned the Mid Coast’s swell window, but on the balance I really like the look of this event, as the storm track is a little longer, but also slightly further away from the coast, which should allow the energy to sort itself out a little better before making landfall (compared to the current inbound swell). The turn of the tide should see some 2-3ft sets across the reefs, and even if the morning’s light variable winds swing fresh S/SE into the afternoon most Mid Coast breaks should cope with this direction. 

We’re looking at a couple of days of onshore winds at Victor beyond this, so make the most of the early session as we may see the southerlies swing mid afternoon on Thursday. 

Easing swells and fresh southerly winds are then expected on Friday. There’ll be some small wobbly waves on the Mid if you’re keen but I’d recommend taking advantage of the next few days instead. 

As for the weekend, it’s not looking good. 

Surf size will continue to ease across the Mid Coast, with 1ft+ leftover sets both days.

Down south, and Friday’s change will be tailed closely behind by a series of small polar fronts/lows that should maintain around 2-3ft+ waves across the Middleton stretch, though winds will tend fresh SE on Saturday as a high ridges in front the west, with easterlies expected into Sunday. There’s a chance for an early NE breeze Sunday morning but otherwise it’s not worth getting too excited about yet. 

Long term into next week suggests a blocking pattern will develop south of WA, which usually leads to an extended period of smaller surf - but, most blocking patterns often display a strong node of the LWT on either side, and in this case the eastern flank may very well be positioned just on the eastern periphery of our acute south swell window, just below Tasmania. This could deliver a S/SW groundswell for the first part of next week.

More on this in Wednesday’s update.