Small to moderate mix of swells

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Nias, Mentawai, South Sumatra forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Tuesday 11th August)

Best Days: Exposed breaks this week through early next week

This week and next week (Aug 7 – 14)

A mix of S/SE and S/SW groundswell should be breaking across the Mentawais today and the S/SW swell should ease back through tomorrow from an inconsistent 5-6ft across exposed breaks, becoming smaller into Thursday.

The S/SE swell from a broad and strong fetch of E/SE trades to our south will continue through Thursday and Friday offering 3-4ft+ sets across exposed breaks before easing off into the weekend.

For the rest of the period we're only due to see moderate and inconsistent levels of S/SW groundswell as the storm track remains unfavourable for our region and focussed towards WA.

Exposed breaks are due to hover between 3-5ft for the most part and with variable winds through this week and the weekend, increasing from the SE mid-next week.

Longer term we may see some stronger frontal activity in our south-western swell window over the weekend and into early the week of the 24th, generating some larger swell for the end of the month, but we'll review this Thursday.

16 day Mentawai forecast graph
16 day Nias forecast graph
16 day South Sumatra forecast graph

Comments

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Tuesday, 11 Aug 2015 at 2:59pm

What's ya confidence on that larger swell (towards the end of the mth) coming to fruition Craig?

I need it up there on or before the 28th Aug!!!!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 11 Aug 2015 at 3:03pm

Real early days, but upper level pattern is looking favourable. Here's hoping!

Booka78's picture
Booka78's picture
Booka78 Tuesday, 11 Aug 2015 at 6:47pm

Hi Craig
I'm at macca's weekend 21st-22nd looks like some swell(hopefully) on the long range forecast. With the southerly swell & southeast winds any idea of wave quality or breaks preferring these wind/swell combos

marcio_rico's picture
marcio_rico's picture
marcio_rico Wednesday, 12 Aug 2015 at 1:16pm

Hey Craig, would you know how much of this larger swell will filter through to Simeulue? Will be there from the 21st till the end of the month...

Thanks!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 13 Aug 2015 at 2:28pm

Here's the latest forecast fellas.. https://www.swellnet.com/reports/forecaster-notes/mentawai-nias-south-sumatra/2015/08/13/slow-ahead-more-action-24th

Booka, 21-22 is long-range and inconsistent S/SW groundswell likely in the 3-4ft+ range.