Indonesia/Maldives forecast Sep 10
Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Tuesday 10th September)
This week through next (Sep 11 - 20)
The large mid-period S/SW swell for Sunday came in very nicely across eastern locations, with the broad nature and northward projection of the system helping in the consistency and longevity stakes.
A reinforcing but less consistent and more southerly S/SW swell is due to arrive tomorrow, maintaining moderate + sized surf across exposed breaks before easing into the end of the week.
The source was a healthy polar front projecting up towards Western Australia on the back of the northward projecting system linked to the recent swell.
The outlook then consists of relatively small to moderate sized swell energy through the weekend and next week, apart from a better S/SW groundswell due Sunday afternoon and Monday.
This swell is being generated by a strong frontal system that’s currently north of the Heard Island region, generating a fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW winds in our south-western and then southern swell windows.
A moderate + sized pulse of energy is due with it arriving Sunday afternoon (mostly from a prefrontal W/NW fetch ahead of the main fetch), holding Monday morning from the W/SW fetch.
Otherwise there’s nothing too significant at all to talk about for next week apart from some small, inconsistent mid-period energy late week.
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Maldives: Our good pulses of S/SE-SE trade-swell due from later Friday through the weekend and into Monday have come in nicely with 4-6ft surf generally reported.
The broad, expansive fetch of E/SE-SE trades generating the swell has weakened a touch but will remain robust through the coming days before weakening later week and more so into the weekend.
With this we can expect persistent pulses of moderate sized SE trade-swell energy this week, easing from later Friday but more so through the weekend.
A possible rebuilding of the trade-fetch to our south through next week should see S/SE trade energy building back again from mid-next week, but we’ll review this Thursday.
As the SE trade-swell slowly eases on the weekend, some new mid-period S’ly energy is due to take its place across the southern atolls with it due to arrive later Saturday, peaking through Sunday.
The source was the earlier stages of the frontal system generating Indonesia’s swell Sunday/Monday, with a polar fetch of strong to gale-force winds due to generate moderate sized surf, easing slowly Monday. A reinforcing mid-period S/SW swell is then due Tuesday from a weaker front firing up south of South Africa today, with nothing of note to follow.
Eastern Indonesia:.
Moderate + sized reinforcing S/SW groundswell for Wednesday to 6ft across exposed breaks, smaller into Thursday and Friday.
Moderate + sized mid-period S/SW swell building Sunday afternoon, reaching 6ft on the sets later, easing slowly from a similar size Monday morning.
Small, inconsistent mid-period SW swell for later Thursday and Friday morning to 4ft across exposed breaks.
Moderate to fresh E/SE-SE trades, lighter and more variable each morning this week. Weaker S/SE-SE trades on the weekend, tending E/SE-SE again next week.
Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs
Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:
Smaller, inconsistent S’ly groundswell for Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning to 4-5ft, easing Friday and Saturday.
Moderate + sized S/SW groundswell building Sunday afternoon to 4-6ft, peaking Monday morning to 5-6ft, easing thereafter.
Small to moderate sized mid-period SW swell Thursday to 3-5ft.
Moderate E/SE-SE winds across southern locations this week, variable to the north.
Freshening S/SE-SE winds over the weekend, weaker to the north, moderate to fresh S/SE-S across all locations next week.
Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs
Maldives:
Reinforcing SE pulses this week to 3-5ft across exposed breaks.
Swell slowly easing from the weekend
Moderate sized S’ly swell building later Saturday, peaking Sunday to 3-5ft across the southern atolls, smaller elsewhere.
Easing swell Monday with a reinforcing S/SW swell Tuesday to 3-4ft across the southern atolls.
Moderate W/SW-SW winds across northern and central locations over the coming days and weekend (lighter late week), variable across southern locations.
Possible strengthening westerly winds next week.
Comments
Latest notes are live.
We didn't surf yesterday but motored early this morning to Ying Yangs as we head gradually south.
The first surf was really really fun. We surfed the inside break which has more power. We are the only boat here with a nice group- 4 Americans, but two are beginners, didn't surf this morning, 1 Kiwi and 8 Aussies. Older gents but all cool.
Way more poweful than I thought but heaps fun, the biggest sets were double but most in the head to head and half. Got a bunch of good waves myself. I was in first and out last being the old frother that I am. Got one arse-kicking but wasn't so bad, didn't hit the reef and jagged a good set wave. This place is so beautiful and so farking hot.
I don't like curry for breakfast though.
Our guide Hoops is a champ and was the wildcard in last years Four Seasons contest.
So first morning- great start to the trip and forecast looks good. Thankyou Craig.
Nice!
I thought the breakfast curries was the next best thing after the waves... and the diving... and the fishing... and the - OK, a fair way down the list, but I was a fan. Different strokes.
And yeah, Sofa King Hot.
I'm sure one of the guides at Lohis when I was there was called Hoops. Wonder if its the same bloke. Ripped.
Great stuff Zen, plenty more pulses to come this week with favourable winds, then those stronger S swells.
I didn't realise you were motoring down south. I thought you were flying down there and then jumping on the boat. Where did the boat depart from? That's a serious motor south if from Male? Glad you scored. And sounds like crowds are low? Or all the other boats are already down south.
Guides here are saying crowds down. We hit sultans the other day and there were 45 in water b4 our 15. Hate to see it crowded. It was 2x +++ on sets and only a few real takers, so was able to jag some specials b4 i got to frustrated with the circus and went in. Hard to get in the spot with all the cattle and disrupters. Next day 7 of us had it alone but only 3 waves came in 40 mins - a boat of 20 still paddled out to join us, which was bizarre. Got pretty sweet once tide pushed in. Again 2x and not a lot of real takers but plenty of Euro poo squatters taking waves and getting mauled.
Smaller today but sw wind is really strong. Still not user friendly at all.
Nice one Zen, keep 'em coming mate.
Sorry Don for the confusion, we flew from Male to the central atolls, I'm sorry don't know airport name and we're making our way down south where we'll fly out of a different airport late next week.
Pm sesh wasn't as good. Thought it would be better on the higher tide. It was oily glassy but really throwing- 3 from 3 couldn't make the takeoff and got smashed. Jagged a really good wave then got tubed nicely on one after that then got farking detonated when the bottom dropped out of it in about 2ft of water. Got washed across the reef. No worries though, pride hurt only. Only 5 of us went out for that sesh and everyone was getting creamed. Very few makes. Plus, current was a bitch. I decided to call it and got hammered again and another reef go around. Got a smoker and tubed right in front of the tender driver so kicked out, paddled over and done.
Getting cramps in one arm- maybe short on electrolytes?
I like curry no worries, I love ice-cream too, but not for breakfast lunch and dinner.
Anyway, happy to share. This is my first boat trip, first time i've surfed over coral and first but probably not the last time I've had curry for breakky.
Beats working.
Epic zen
How exciting for you.
I’ve also been using these forecasts for g-land.
Had some great waves the last week.
Cheers craigos
No wukkas!
Sounds like you’re having a ball Zen. Keep up the fun and enjoyment and keep up the posts to keep us informed and entertained.
Btw- Taj was out and fucking slaying it but went in just as we were motoring over. He gave us a wave as they were driving off.
I’ve surfed Yin Yang a few times Zen, the reef is very present at that wave I thought. I’ve been pushed up onto it and had to do a pretty long horrible walk to the end to get off. Plenty of juice and thick for the size that it breaks at.
I’ve surfed Yin Yang a few times Zen, the reef is very present at that wave I thought. I’ve been pushed up onto it and had to do a pretty long horrible walk to the end to get off. Plenty of juice and thick for the size that it breaks at.
We've been motoring all night, just seeing land now. Doing a bit of trolling and got two yellwfin and a skipjack so fish no doubt on the menu.
Seems like good energy in the water and winds are pretty light so hopefully surfing in the next few hours.
Yep, Ying-Yangs farken throws, but got tubed a couple of times to redeem the wipeouts I took. Pretty much if you can stick the takeoff you're sweet. Just wanna get deeper.
Yep, Hoops was at Lohis. Top bloke, we're in good hands.
Just then, a bloke is on. Fishing is good too.
Fark this is fun.
Yew!
Hey Craig or anyone else, is Geger Nusa Dua swell size on par with Sanur or Keramas?
Geger picks up more swell than Uluwatu. If Geger is 4ft, Keramas will be 2ft+ and Sanur flat. Sanur is very dependant on direction, loves the SSW around 200degrees anything over this the refraction drops off fast
Yep, true magnet.
If Nusa 2-3 ft, still except rogue 6 ft sets ..
Magnet....
Thanks Doggi & Craig. I’m staying a week at The Mulia which is right on Geger in November and wasn’t sure how to gauge it and what chart to look at, but that all helps. Cheers.
If they still do it, make sure you go the Sunday brunch....
Best buffet I have ever had, quite a few times. :)
Yeah I’ve heard that, I’ll be sure to indulge if so. Cheers, Andy
Enjoy buddy! The main peak at Geger favour a SW swell, mid to low on the dropping (reverse current), the incoming tide will reverse the sweep and drag you down the reef. The 'Elevators' section in front of the temple is best on dead low. If you luck into a solid swell there's plenty of options on that coast wind dependant of course
Noted Doggi, thanks for the tips. I can’t wait!
Joshy go the Dawny if you can- you will be sharing Geger lineup with Pig Ignorant European Surf Stars
Yeah I’ll definitely hit it early Udo. Are there boats ready to go early or is the paddle not to bad?
There won't be any boats early or if there is a proper swell. There will be lots of paddling, duck diving, wind, current (which sometimes does what ol' mate above says, and other times does the opposite), sharks, euros and grumpy old seppos.
Haha, sounds fun.
Just providing a balanced view! I think it's fun, most people don't which is why I think it's fun.
Paddle out in front of temple, if solid use channel further south towards Nikko and drift down to break.
Don't paddle out from beach in front of Banjar warungs!
Can be a great wave but is generally flawed with a wobble, bump etc, but can get unreal, but not a typical Indo style wave.
If over 6 foot take a big board!
Yep Channel Padddle out at Chickens to easy...As Andy said some Length if 5-6 ft + ...Its a Huge Playing Field out there ...Wild Water...Strong Leggie needed...leave the Comp leggie at Home
Cannot wait till the Bali Tow Teams give it a Go at 12-15 ft..that will be a Spectacle .
People already surf it when it's big they just don't post it on Instagram because they are not fuckwits, and no one can really see what's happening from the beach. It's also been paddled when it's HUGE.
Nice! Everything I love.
Great to read everyone scoring. My arms are ready to drop off , this swell just keeps giving. Last 2 days have been punching above the forecast. Rote tomorrow and although swell looks small I’m looking forward to some creature comforts and some time out from paddling . Surfed every day since 20th august , usually overhead to double overhead + , bar 2 days of traveling , this year has been simply incredible for swell .
Loving life!
Arrive in Bali Saturday for a month, hope not jinxing it!
@andy-mac , forecast looks fine for Bali and west , I think you will score, you may be shocked with the increase of beginners everywhere, I’m amazed at some of the more remote locations that have a influx of euros that are lovely people but most haven’t a clue in the surf and are way out of their depth , it’s a different world that’s for sure .
Yep cheers Supa.
Lots of options, and can safely say I will be getting better waves there than here!!
Supa where are you staying at Rote? My last trip was 2017 I think. Hopefully hasn't changed too much. Seems to be a good crew there for the most part.
https://belareef.com/
Nice one. Hope you get a few waves while you're there.
Good thing about the reef out the front that it pretty much breaks from 2ft up to as big as you want.
Keen to get back there before too long.
Yeah thanks , looks like a few head high days at best over the next fortnight , have you been there on the full moon for local sailing regatta ? Looks fun .
Oh right. Lean run. The trips I've had there I've always lucked into one really solid swell amongst other fun sized days.
Haven't heard about that sailing regatta before.
Yeah I’m there next Saturday and it’s not looking like there’s a lot happening.
Where are you staying SD ? Catch up at shipwreck bar ?
For sure, Keong Villas.
Big swell lines pouring into kupang this evening
And not just European , came across 3 Chinese, 1 of them was absolutely ripping , charging on the bigger days.
We just had our first surf today- don't know the name, something-hoo as everything seems to be called here. Hoobs kinda said we'd struggle cause the incoming current is relentless. Got half a dozen really fun head high waves- just like in the vids, crystal clear, blue like an aquarium. Had to call it, one step forward two back. Gonna surf again in a couple of hours if we hit slack water.
Really interesting mix on the boat, coupla tradies, engineer, barrister, epidemiologist, coupla public servants, an IT guy, a physiotherapist, a coupla blokes from NSPW and a really rich American bloke who's got an investment fund. Calls himself a serial entrepreneur. Everyone getting on well.
That's another reason I like surfing- it's very egalitarian.
today was barely 4 foot at the exposed spots in Bali. Ulu looked about 1 foot.
Not sure what happened to yesterday’s swell but it was half the size it was forecast to be. Slow 3 foot sets with the very odd 4 footer.
The swell wasn't the best aimed and a bit south. Sunday/Monday are worth making the most of with the outlook.
Good stuff Craigo’s.
Looking like Indo’s stellar run might be coming to an end.
Yo Goof, you having fun but?
Our second sesh yesterday was off-tap. Same spot but current went away. Some of the most perfect waves I have ever surfed and like in the vids- blown glass perfection, not big, head to head and a half and so pretty. Big storm came through while out there but blew over and it pumped even more and became even more perfect if it's possible. It ain't G-land or the Ments but for me, I'm like a kid in a candy shop. Btw- Don might know this spot, it's in front of an airstrip with a left on the other side of the reef pass. On that side is a little town called Villingilli I think. We had a stroll around there for an hour and had an ice-cream.
Currently motoring in the half light to Tiger Stripes where we'll surf our first lefts. Except for the guide there's only one other goofy onboard.
Sorry to share this, not bragging but this is new to me and just kicking myself I didn't do it 20 years ago.
Haha, full froth, making me Jealous now Zen as a I stare down windblown junk out front.
Super stocked for you Zen. Nice to hear you’re having the time of your life.
I might reach out to you personally after your trip to chat offline if that’s ok. I’ll get Craig or Ben to send you my email addy.
Keep up the reports and keep up the stoke!!
No worries Don, happy to.
Just wound up Brekky. Tiger Stripes about head high and clean.
I'll take it.
Gee I would have expected more size at Tigers given it's a swell magnet. I hope you get Love charms with some size. It's a damn good left!!!
Of course zen.
Not complaining. More curious why it was half the size it was forecast.
3 foot Indo is much better than being at home working!
Awesome Goof- hoping you get some love.
Fantastic Zen, stoked you are having an awesome trip
Pretty jelly gents.
Any of you Nusa Dua crew- is the Geger peak the main wave at Nusa Dua?
Or is the main right another part of the reef?
Couple of peaks out front of warungs.
Big playing field as mentioned. Depending on swell direction and swell size. Kind of 2 take off spots in front of warungs, and another wave up towards temples wave, not temples. Then further down the reef is chickens, ya can easily end up down there when current is running.
Not a defined take off area and moves around a lot.
No matter how big it is, you will cop some on the head as always rogue sets.
A lot of people write it off, but I actually like nusa, but very rarely us there not some kind of wonk, wobble or prick of a current.
FR, there's a couple of big rocks (only exposed at low) that denote the take off of 'main peak' Geger. It's not really a peak, predominate right hander. Lines up really nice as the swell goes more SW 215-225. Peaky / close out-ish the more south 210-. As Andy-mac says it's rare to surf Geger perfect but does happen. The Kook Hill boys on Siligita will be holding it down
@soggydog , slight improvement in the forecast this morning, it was looking really sad and I’m hoping the update is accurate.
Good on you supa, legend. Yeah I re subscribed and have been keeping an eye on it. It’ll be warm with no work. Everything after that is a bonus.
Hey Supa,
How’s it looking on this swell? Punching above the forecast, or crossing the fingers for more? Just curious. Packing the board bag.
Hey Supa,
How’s it looking on this swell? Punching above the forecast, or crossing the fingers for more? Just curious. Packing the board bag.
@soggydog , not good news mate . Had the first surf today and biggest set wave which I had patiently waited for was just shoulder high . Inconsistent, gutless and crowded. The only pluses were the clear water, its temperature and plenty of fish getting smashed . Sorry mate but there isn’t much improvement on the horizon. I was expecting at least head high today but the majority of waves when they did come through were waist high . Tomorrow morning is supposedly marginally better. If you haven’t paid for accommodation then cancelling and going to G-Land would be a better move . We are going to hang in here until tides are better for next destination . Sorry to deliver such a shit report, when I saw the change in forecast I became hopeful but it reverted back to 1-2 ft next day and the 3 ft today didn’t happen .
Dang, unfortunately I just paid for the accommodation and the flights I’ve booked kinda lock me into Roti. Not going through Bali, flying via Jakarta.
Funny you mentioned the change because I’ve done that the last time I tried to go to Roti, got to Bali, checked the forecast and ended up in G land. I’ve got the family this time. So I’m kinda committed. Bummer because my mate just returned a week ago and all he could say was pack big boards. Maybe not this time.
If you’re still around on Saturday I’ll come and find you for a beer, you can tell me all about the sick waves you’ve been getting and I’ll look wistfully at the sea hoping for more.
Yeah no worries, will still be here , Belar reef bungalows.
@soggydog , small improvement this morning, some head high sets occasionally , more consistent than yesterday. About 30 guys and gals out . It’s raining now which would be a very welcome relief for the locals as everywhere is extremely dry . Hoping Craig has some good news in his Tuesday update .
Yes unfortunately the models are alluding at a large and very stubborn blocking high setting up camp in the Indian Ocean for around the next week or so. This is supressing any fetches being aimed up into Indo unfortunately. Damn good for those looking further west of Indo!!!
We're here on our last full day. Surf has been exceptional, I guess the luck runs out eventually and even though it's very pretty out there right now, only head high maybe the odd touch over every once and awhile.
While at first we were the only boat in the area that had changed- coupla boats plus people from the plush resorts- Kale Broccoli is doing his thing right near us. Plus, a couple of agro Israeli's but they've thankfully gone. I had a bit of a run in with one but we made our peace and got on quite civilly the next day. Also there's a bunch of Brazzos here with their kids- they're actually pretty cool but when the kids aren't in the lineup they revert back to the stereotypical Brasilians, loud, hungry, paddle for everything and catch very few of them but thankfully they're not aggressive- just having fun like us in the way they know how.
Done a couple of shore excursions and for me the best- nice people, a little wary, have sweet fa but always a smile. Don't want anything and don't ask for anything.
I guess you don't want for much when you live in paradise.
I'm ready for home though.
Big thanks to Don for his kindness and knowledge.
So glad you’ve had an enjoyable and memorable trip Zen. It’s an amazing part of the world and as you say the people are also special.
Safe travels on your journey home.
Glad you scored zen and having your brother along must’ve been special .
Thanks guys.
It's been great for the both of us on every level.
And couldn't have wished for a better bunch of blokes to travel with.
Received a photo this morning from Roti, from around the traps, looked pretty good.
Got my froth on again.
Go get 'em Soggy.
Just waiting for the tide to come in a bit meself. Looking fun as out there. Offshore and clean as a whistle.
Glad you had a great trip Zen, I love the Maldives. Yew!