Indonesia/Maldives forecast Sep 5

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 5th September)

This week through next (Sep 6 - 13)

Our inconsistent S/SW groundswell pulsed into yesterday afternoon, easing through this morning, and we’ve got a secondary reinforcing S/SW swell due into tomorrow but under the model forecasts again and more to 6ft across Bali magnets, smaller to the west.

We then look at the large, mid-period S/SW swell for the weekend, with the northward projecting frontal system currently impacting Western Australia.

It’s producing large onshore surf across most locations with it continuing up towards us for the weekend, building later Saturday and then peaking Sunday morning.

The reinforcing pulses of energy for early to mid-next week are now looking a bit better, but south in direction. They'll be generated by following stronger frontal systems on the backside of the system currently pushing across Western Australia, with the best due on Wednesday. This looks moderate + in size but inconsistent, with locations further west missing out a bit.

Following this it’s down, down, down with no major swell generating storms expected into the middle of the month. More on this Tuesday.

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The Maldives has seen a slow easing trend of SE trade-swell with some new energy due to start filling in from later tomorrow but more so over the weekend.

This will be thanks to a broad fetch of E/SE-SE trades developing south-east of us, persisting most of the period, with a slight surge towards the region tomorrow likely to generate the strongest pulse of size for later Sunday and Monday.

There’ll be further ebbs and pulses during the week, with the surf being mostly moderate + in size, only starting to ease next Friday as the trade fetch relaxes.

The next round of S’ly swell is likely next weekend from a strengthening polar front to the west of the Heard Island region early next week. More on this Tuesday.

Eastern Indonesia:.

Reinforcing S/SW groundswell tomorrow to an inconsistent 6ft across exposed breaks.

Large, mid-period S/SW swell building later Saturday, peaking Sunday morning to 8ft across exposed breaks, slowly easing into next week.

Moderate + sized reinforcing S/SW groundswell for Wednesday to 6ft across exposed breaks, smaller into Thursday.

Moderate to fresh E/SE-SE trades, lighter and more variable each morning. Strengthening E/SE trades tomorrow and further on the weekend, weakening next week.

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Inconsistent S/SW groundswell tomorrow to 4-6ft across the exposed breaks.

Moderate sized mid-period S’ly swell through tomorrow and the weekend, easing slowly next week.

Moderate + sized mid-period S’ly swell for Sunday to 6ft across exposed breaks, easing next week.

Smaller, inconsistent S’ly groundswell for Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning to 4-5ft.

Strong S/SE-SE trades over the coming days, weakening slowly across northern locations during the weekend and next week.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Maldives:

Building SE trade-swell later tomorrow, further Saturday, peaking Sunday through Monday to 4-5ft+ across exposed locations (smaller Male). Reinforcing SE pulses to 4-5ft through most of next week, easing Friday.

Moderate W-W/NW across northern/central locations (weaker on the weekend), freshening from the W Tuesday onwards.

More variable winds across the southern atolls, taking a S’ly tendency into next week.

Comments

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 5 Sep 2024 at 5:13pm

Latest notes are live.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Thursday, 5 Sep 2024 at 5:16pm

Thanks craigos

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 5 Sep 2024 at 5:19pm

No worries, enjoy Goofy!

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain Thursday, 5 Sep 2024 at 5:24pm

Many thanks from me too.

looks promising.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 5 Sep 2024 at 5:50pm

Indeed Zen. Enjoy!

Loafmode's picture
Loafmode's picture
Loafmode Thursday, 5 Sep 2024 at 6:30pm

Cheers mate. Does Rote fall under ‘eastern Indonesia’?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 5 Sep 2024 at 6:34pm

Effectively but with these south swells I'd expect it to be 1/3rd the size. Possibly even smaller. It's quite tucked away.

Turkey's picture
Turkey's picture
Turkey Friday, 6 Sep 2024 at 7:42am

How are those winds for the Maldives next week?

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Friday, 6 Sep 2024 at 9:42am

Which part of the Maldives? it's a big island chain with winds very different down south compared to the north

Turkey's picture
Turkey's picture
Turkey Friday, 6 Sep 2024 at 10:25am

Sorry - northern attols!

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Friday, 6 Sep 2024 at 1:08pm

Looks like predominantly W/SW for most of the working week possibly veering towards the NW towards the end of the working week/next weekend.

But it is the tropics so expect local variations to the above particularly if storm fronts are moving through.

Turkey's picture
Turkey's picture
Turkey Friday, 6 Sep 2024 at 1:59pm

Thanks Don!

FrazP's picture
FrazP's picture
FrazP Saturday, 7 Sep 2024 at 12:23pm

Been 3-4 ft in nth atolls, with rogues last few days but I've been bedridden, now half alive and could do a cruisey surf but have woken up to a very solid swell. Good 2x on occasions. Seems more Sth at Lohis then SE. Anyone that has surfed here knows horrific is an understatement for the paddle and more sth makes it even worse

Nthcstsrfr's picture
Nthcstsrfr's picture
Nthcstsrfr Sunday, 8 Sep 2024 at 12:11am

Yup agree. past 2 days was the low point of the past week, but still super fun, today back to a solid 4-5ft with some occasional 6ft bombs. Pumping! Hope ur feeling better tomorrow Fraz

FrazP's picture
FrazP's picture
FrazP Sunday, 8 Sep 2024 at 2:53am

Thanks bud. Had a paddle at Jails, sat 40m wide of pack to watch and within a minute they were scratching for the sky and I was scratching into a gem. Got absolutely smoked in the shallows after pulling off though. The 5 mins of drowning and extra 300m paddle was not on the agenda of taking it very easy. This arvo dropped a foot or two on average sets.

Nthcstsrfr's picture
Nthcstsrfr's picture
Nthcstsrfr Sunday, 8 Sep 2024 at 3:25pm

I spent 5hrs in the water at Jails yesterday, so no doubt we chatted at some point!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 9 Sep 2024 at 11:01am

Very nice guys.

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain Sunday, 8 Sep 2024 at 8:13pm

I'm getting excited you legends- currently kicking back with a beer and Laksa at Singapore waiting for my Male connection.

My bro there already- says it's a solid 4ft out the front of his hotel. We're off to the Sth.Atolls tomorrow morning.

Yew!!

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Monday, 9 Sep 2024 at 9:43am

Enjoy Zen. It’s an amazing part of the world.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 9 Sep 2024 at 10:55am

The froth is real!

Tick's picture
Tick's picture
Tick Sunday, 8 Sep 2024 at 9:14pm

The anticipation. How good.

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain Monday, 9 Sep 2024 at 12:52pm

Some nice long lines out front of the hotel this morning. Lunchtime flight south.

Hoping for an arvo.

The froth is palpable.

shoredump's picture
shoredump's picture
shoredump Monday, 9 Sep 2024 at 1:17pm

Get into Zen!

PS I hope you had a fun time with your male connection in Singas hehe

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain Monday, 9 Sep 2024 at 2:40pm

Thanks Shorey. At airport- pumping. Real melting pot of cultures.

Strangely, very few surfers surprisingly. Maybe they get in in the arvo.

seaslug's picture
seaslug's picture
seaslug Monday, 9 Sep 2024 at 7:39pm

Have a great trip Zen, hope you score

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain Monday, 9 Sep 2024 at 10:11pm

Thanks Sea, on the boat now, moored up waiting for the rest of the guests to arrive later then we're off first thing. Lot of swell from the air, not too big. Winds are light.

We're up first thing tomorrow.

Waxed and ready to go.

Boards too.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Tuesday, 10 Sep 2024 at 11:27am

Look forward to your on the ground reports Zen.

Jono's picture
Jono's picture
Jono Tuesday, 10 Sep 2024 at 11:31am

Feel like we need to set up a live stream of your trip, with a rolling comments section.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Tuesday, 10 Sep 2024 at 12:39pm

:)

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Monday, 9 Sep 2024 at 4:55pm

Last 4 days have been pumping , double overhead with some bigger bombs thrown in . This morning everyone was thinking swell would have dropped overnight but it only marginally dropped and was in fact more consistent with more waves in the sets . I’m exhausted but it’s a nice type oh exhaustion .

conrico's picture
conrico's picture
conrico Monday, 9 Sep 2024 at 5:04pm

Some great waves North Sumatra last few days. Stoked!

Frodge's picture
Frodge's picture
Frodge Monday, 9 Sep 2024 at 5:10pm

Conrico, what region in North Sumatra?

Noir's picture
Noir's picture
Noir Tuesday, 10 Sep 2024 at 5:58am

Hi Craig, when is the next update, heading that way on the 16th.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 10 Sep 2024 at 6:08am

This afternoon Noir.

Noir's picture
Noir's picture
Noir Tuesday, 10 Sep 2024 at 6:58am

Thank you so much!